In-sample forecasting: A brief review and new algorithms

Statistical methods often distinguish between in-sample and out-of-sample approaches. In particular this is the case when time is involved. Then often time series methods are proposed that extrapolate past patterns into the future via complicated recursion formulas. Standard statistical inference is on the other hand concerned with estimating parameters within the given sample. This review paper is about a statistical methodology, where all parameters are estimated in-sample while producing a forecast out-of-sample without recursion or extrapolation. A new super-simulation algorithm ensures a faster implementation of the simplest and perhaps most important version of in-sample forecasting

Search for WW and WZ production in lepton plus jets final state at CDF

We present a search for WW and WZ production in final states that contain a charged lepton (electron or muon) and at least two jets, produced in sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV ppbar collisions at the Fermilab Tevatron, using data corresponding to 1.2 fb-1 of integrated luminosity collected with the CDF II detector. Diboson production in this decay channel has yet to be observed at hadron colliders due to the large single W plus jets background. An artificial neural network has been developed to increase signal sensitivity, as compared with an event selection based on conventional cuts. We set a 95% confidence level upper limit of sigma_{WW}* BR(W->lnu,W->jets)+ sigma_{WZ}*BR(W->lnu,Z->jets)We present a search for WW and WZ production in final states that contain a charged lepton (electron or muon) and at least two jets, produced in √s=1.96  TeV pp̅ collisions at the Fermilab Tevatron, using data corresponding to 1.2  fb-1 of integrated luminosity collected with the CDF II detector. Diboson production in this decay channel has yet to be observed at hadron colliders due to the large single W plus jets background. An artificial neural network has been developed to increase signal sensitivity, as compared with an event selection based on conventional cuts. We set a 95% confidence level upper limit of σWW×BR(W→ℓνℓ,W→jets)+σWZ×BR(W→ℓνℓ,Z→jets)<2.88  pb, which is consistent with the standard model next-to-leading-order cross section calculation for this decay channel of 2.09±0.12  pb.Peer reviewe

Problem gambling: a suitable case for social work?

Problem gambling attracts little attention from health and social care agencies in the UK. Prevalence surveys suggest that 0.6% of the population are problem gamblers and it is suggested that for each of these individuals, 10–17 other people, including children and other family members, are affected. Problem gambling is linked to many individual and social problems including: depression, suicide, significant debt, bankruptcy, family conflict, domestic violence, neglect and maltreatment of children and offending. This makes the issue central to social work territory. Yet, the training of social workers in the UK has consistently neglected issues of addictive behaviour. Whilst some attention has been paid in recent years to substance abuse issues, there has remained a silence in relation to gambling problems. Social workers provide more help for problems relating to addictions than other helping professions. There is good evidence that treatment, and early intervention for gambling problems, including psycho-social and public health approaches, can be very effective. This paper argues that problem gambling should be moved onto the radar of the social work profession, via inclusion on qualifying and post-qualifying training programmes and via research and dissemination of good practice via institutions such as the Social Care Institute for Excellence (SCIE). Keywords: problem gambling; addictive behaviour; socia

How do general practitioners experience providing care to refugees with mental health problems? A qualitative study from Denmark

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

Buprenorphine-Naloxone in the Treatment of Codeine Dependence: a Scoping Review of Clinical Case Presentations

Misuse of prescribed and over the counter (OTC) codeine containing medicines is an increasing public health concern in recent times. Studies have called for low threshold treatment services for individuals experiencing codeine dependence using buprenorphine naloxone therapy. We present a scoping review of clinical case presentation literature on the use of buprenorphine-naloxone in the treatment of codeine dependence. Seven records (four single case studies and three case series) on codeine dependence treated with buprenorphine-naloxone were included. Five themes emerged following a review of the cases for the treatment of codeine dependence with buprenorphine-naloxone. They are: (1) Patient Profiles; (2) History of Codeine Misuse; (3) Medical Problems; (4) Use of Other Substances; and (5) Buprenorphine-naloxone in the treatment of Codeine Dependence. The review highlights the complexities of patients with regards to pain, psychiatric illness, poly substance use and iatrogenic dependence, with findings encouraging in terms of patient stabilisation and recovery

Topological Charge and The Spectrum of Exactly Massless Fermions on the Lattice

The square root of the positive definite hermitian operator $D_w^{\dagger} D_w$ in Neuberger's proposal of exactly massless quarks on the lattice is implemented by the recursion formula $Y_{k+1} = {1/2} (Y_k + D_w^{\dagger} D_w Y_k^{-1})$ with Y_0 = \Id, where $Y_k^2$ converges to $D_w^{\dagger} D_w$ quadratically. The spectrum of the lattice Dirac operator for single massless fermion in two dimensional background U(1) gauge fields is investigated. For smooth background gauge fields with non-zero topological charge, the exact zero modes with definite chirality are reproduced to a very high precision on a finite lattice and the Index Theorem is satisfied exactly. The fermionic determinants are also computed and they are in good agreement with the continuum exact solution.Comment: 18 pages (LaTeX), 2 figures (EPS

Running coupling in Yang-Mills theory - a flow equation study -

The effective average action of Yang-Mills theory is analyzed in the framework of exact renormalization group flow equations. Employing the background-field method and using a cutoff that is adjusted to the spectral flow, the running of the gauge coupling is obtained on all scales. In four dimensions and for the gauge groups SU(2) and SU(3), the coupling approaches a fixed point in the infrared.Comment: 35 pages, 3 figures, v2: References added, minor improvements, version to appear in PR

Measurement of the top quark-pair production cross section with ATLAS in pp collisions at \sqrt{s}=7\TeV

A measurement of the production cross-section for top quark pairs(\ttbar) in $pp$ collisions at \sqrt{s}=7 \TeV is presented using data recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. Events are selected in two different topologies: single lepton (electron $e$ or muon $\mu$) with large missing transverse energy and at least four jets, and dilepton ($ee$, $\mu\mu$ or $e\mu$) with large missing transverse energy and at least two jets. In a data sample of 2.9 pb-1, 37 candidate events are observed in the single-lepton topology and 9 events in the dilepton topology. The corresponding expected backgrounds from non-\ttbar Standard Model processes are estimated using data-driven methods and determined to be $12.2 \pm 3.9$ events and $2.5 \pm 0.6$ events, respectively. The kinematic properties of the selected events are consistent with SM \ttbar production. The inclusive top quark pair production cross-section is measured to be \sigmattbar=145 \pm 31 ^{+42}_{-27} pb where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic. The measurement agrees with perturbative QCD calculations.Comment: 30 pages plus author list (50 pages total), 9 figures, 11 tables, CERN-PH number and final journal adde

Inclusive search for same-sign dilepton signatures in pp collisions at root s=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

An inclusive search is presented for new physics in events with two isolated leptons (e or mu) having the same electric charge. The data are selected from events collected from p p collisions at root s = 7 TeV by the ATLAS detector and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 34 pb(-1). The spectra in dilepton invariant mass, missing transverse momentum and jet multiplicity are presented and compared to Standard Model predictions. In this event sample, no evidence is found for contributions beyond those of the Standard Model. Limits are set on the cross-section in a fiducial region for new sources of same-sign high-mass dilepton events in the ee, e mu and mu mu channels. Four models predicting same-sign dilepton signals are constrained: two descriptions of Majorana neutrinos, a cascade topology similar to supersymmetry or universal extra dimensions, and fourth generation d-type quarks. Assuming a new physics scale of 1 TeV, Majorana neutrinos produced by an effective operator V with masses below 460 GeV are excluded at 95% confidence level. A lower limit of 290 GeV is set at 95% confidence level on the mass of fourth generation d-type quarks

Camp Lwandle: Rehabilitating a migrant labour hostel at the seaside

In southern African narratives of migrant labour, hostels and compounds are represented as typical examples of colonial and apartheid planning. Visual and spatial comparisons are consistently made between the regulatory power of hostels and those of concentration camps. Several of these sites of violence and repression are today being reconfigured as sites of conscience, their artefactual presence on the landscape being constructed as places of remembrance. In this trajectory, a space of seeming anonymity in Lwandle, some 40 km outside of Cape Town, was identified by the newly established museum, at the beginning of the twenty-first century, as a structure of significance. The migrant labour compound in Lwandle, of which Hostel 33 is the last remnant, was designed by planners and engineers and laid out as part of a labour camp for male migrant workers in the 1950s. This article explores the ambitious project initiated in 2008, by the Lwandle Migrant Labour Museum (and funded largely by the US Ambassadors Cultural Restoration Fund), to restore Hostel 33. Although Hostel 33 was not a very old structure, having been built in 1958/9, nor was it easily considered to have conventional architectural significance, its material presence in present-day Lwandle represents a reminder of the conditions of life in the labour camp. The article traces the work entailed in the restoration process through paying attention to both the built fabric and its materiality, and by giving an account of the explorations into finding ways to restore the hostel to the museum through making it into a site of significance. In place of the centrality of the building as the object of restoration, the work shifted to considering how the hostel could function most effectively as a stage and destination for the Museum’s narrations of the past. Retaining and maintaining Hostel 33 was less concerned with the fabric as an empirical fact of the past, than with its projection into an envisaged future for museum purposes.Department of HE and Training approved lis