Varying dataset resolution alters predictive accuracy of spatially explicit ensemble models for avian species distribution

Species distribution models can be made more accurate by use of new “Spatiotemporal Exploratory Models” (STEMs), a type of spatially explicit ensemble model (SEEM) developed at the continental scale that averages regional models pixel by pixel. Although SEEMs can generate more accurate predictions of species distributions, they are computationally expensive. We compared the accuracies of each model for 11 grassland bird species and examined whether they improve accuracy at a statewide scale for fine and coarse predictor resolutions. We used a combination of survey data and citizen science data for 11 grassland bird species in Oklahoma to test a spatially explicit ensemble model at a smaller scale for its effects on accuracy of current models. We found that only four species performed best with either a statewide model or SEEM; the most accurate model for the remaining seven species varied with data resolution and performance measure. Policy implications: Determination of nonheterogeneity may depend on the spatial resolution of the examined dataset. Managers should be cautious if any regional differences are expected when developing policy from range‐wide results that show a single model or timeframe. We recommend use of standard species distribution models or other types of nonspatially explicit ensemble models for local species prediction models. Further study is necessary to understand at what point SEEMs become necessary with varying dataset resolutions.Article processing charges funded by University of Oklahoma Libraries. This work was funded by U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) NIFA grant 2013‐67009‐20369 to ESB and supported by the AWS Cloud Credits for Research program. CMC was supported by National Science Foundation (NSF) grants IDBR 1014891 and ABI 1458402 to ESB and Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation grant F17AF01294 (W‐194‐R‐1) to M.A. Patten. AJC was supported by NSF grants IDBR 1014891, DGE 1545261, and DEB 0946685 and by USDA grant NIFA‐AFRI‐003536. Additional support was provided by the University Strategic Organization in "Applied Aeroecology" at the University of Oklahoma.Ye

Platelet factor XIII-A regulates platelet function and promotes clot retraction and stability.

Factor XIII (FXIII) is an important proenzyme in the hemostatic system. The plasma-derived enzyme activated FXIII cross-links fibrin fibers within thrombi to increase their mechanical strength and cross-links fibrin to fibrinolytic inhibitors, specifically α2-antiplasmin, to increase resistance to fibrinolysis. We have previously shown that cellular FXIII (factor XIII-A [FXIII-A]), which is abundant in the platelet cytoplasm, is externalized onto the activated membrane and cross-links extracellular substrates. The contribution of cellular FXIII-A to platelet activation and platelet function has not been extensively studied. This study aims to identify the role of platelet FXIII-A in platelet function. We used normal healthy platelets with a cell permeable FXIII inhibitor and platelets from FXIII-deficient patients as a FXIII-free platelet model in a range of platelet function and clotting tests. Our data demonstrate that platelet FXIII-A enhances fibrinogen binding to the platelet surface upon agonist stimulation and improves the binding of platelets to fibrinogen and aggregation under flow in a whole-blood thrombus formation assay. In the absence of FXIII-A, platelets show reduced sensitivity to agonist stimulation, including decreased P-selectin exposure and fibrinogen binding. We show that FXIII-A is involved in platelet spreading where a lack of FXIII-A reduces the ability of platelets to fully spread on fibrinogen and collagen. Our data demonstrate that platelet FXIII-A is important for clot retraction where clots formed in its absence retracted to a lesser extent. Overall, this study shows that platelet FXIII-A functions during thrombus formation by aiding platelet activation and thrombus retraction in addition to its antifibrinolytic roles

Early fibrinogen concentrate therapy for major haemorrhage in trauma (E-FIT 1): results from a UK multi-centre, randomised, double blind, placebo-controlled pilot trial.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing interest in the timely administration of concentrated sources of fibrinogen to patients with major traumatic bleeding. Following evaluation of early cryoprecipitate in the CRYOSTAT 1 trial, we explored the use of fibrinogen concentrate, which may have advantages of more rapid administration in acute haemorrhage. The aims of this pragmatic study were to assess the feasibility of fibrinogen concentrate administration within 45 minutes of hospital admission and to quantify efficacy in maintaining fibrinogen levels ≥ 2 g/L during active haemorrhage. METHODS: We conducted a blinded, randomised, placebo-controlled trial at five UK major trauma centres with adult trauma patients with active bleeding who required activation of the major haemorrhage protocol. Participants were randomised to standard major haemorrhage therapy plus 6 g of fibrinogen concentrate or placebo. RESULTS: Twenty-seven of 39 participants (69%; 95% CI, 52-83%) across both arms received the study intervention within 45 minutes of admission. There was some evidence of a difference in the proportion of participants with fibrinogen levels ≥ 2 g/L between arms (p = 0.10). Fibrinogen levels in the fibrinogen concentrate (FgC) arm rose by a mean of 0.9 g/L (SD, 0.5) compared with a reduction of 0.2 g/L (SD, 0.5) in the placebo arm and were significantly higher in the FgC arm (p < 0.0001) at 2 hours. Fibrinogen levels were not different at day 7. Transfusion use and thromboembolic events were similar between arms. All-cause mortality at 28 days was 35.5% (95% CI, 23.8-50.8%) overall, with no difference between arms. CONCLUSIONS: In this trial, early delivery of fibrinogen concentrate within 45 minutes of admission was not feasible. Although evidence points to a key role for fibrinogen in the treatment of major bleeding, researchers need to recognise the challenges of timely delivery in the emergency setting. Future studies must explore barriers to rapid fibrinogen therapy, focusing on methods to reduce time to randomisation, using 'off-the-shelf' fibrinogen therapies (such as extended shelf-life cryoprecipitate held in the emergency department or fibrinogen concentrates with very rapid reconstitution times) and limiting the need for coagulation test-based transfusion triggers. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN67540073 . Registered on 5 August 2015

Differential livelihood adaptation to social-ecological change in coastal Bangladesh

Social-ecological changes, brought about by the rapid growth of the aquaculture industry and the increased occurrence of climatic stressors, have significantly affected the livelihoods of coastal communities in Asian mega-deltas. This paper explores the livelihood adaptation responses of households of different wealth classes, the heterogeneous adaptation opportunities, barriers and limits (OBLs) faced by these households and the dynamic ways in which these factors interact to enhance or impede adaptive capacities. A mixed methods approach was used to collect empirical evidence from two villages in coastal Bangladesh. Findings reveal that households’ adaptive capacities largely depend on their wealth status, which not only determine their availability of productive resources, but also empower them to navigate social-ecological change in desirable ways. Households operate within a shared response space, which is shaped by the broader socio-economic and political landscape, as well as their previous decisions that can lock them in to particular pathways. While an adaptive response may be effective for one social group, it may cause negative externalities that can undermine the adaptation options and outcomes of another group. Adaptation OBLs interact in complex ways; the extent to which these OBLs affect different households depend on the specific livelihood activities being considered and the differential values and interests they hold. To ensure more equitable and environmentally sustainable livelihoods in future, policies and programs should aim to expand households’ adaptation space by accounting for the heterogeneous needs and complex interdependencies between response processes of different groups

Observing Mars from Areostationary Orbit: Benefits and Applications

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Denudation of the continental shelf between Britain and France at the glacial-interglacial timescale

The erosional morphology preserved at the sea bed in the eastern English Channel dominantly records denudation of the continental shelf by fluvial processes over multiple glacial-interglacial sea-level cycles rather than by catastrophic flooding through the Straits of Dover during the mid-Quaternary. Here, through the integration of multibeam bathymetry and shallow sub-bottom 2D seismic reflection profiles calibrated with vibrocore records, the first stratigraphic model of erosion and deposition on the eastern English Channel continental shelf is presented. Published Optical Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) and C ages were used to chronometrically constrain the stratigraphy and allow correlation of the continental shelf record with major climatic/sea-level periods. Five major erosion surfaces overlain by discrete sediment packages have been identified. The continental shelf in the eastern English Channel preserves a record of processes operating from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6 to MIS 1. Planar and channelised erosion surfaces were formed by fluvial incision during lowstands or relative sea-level fall. The depth and lateral extent of incision was partly conditioned by underlying geology (rock type and tectonic structure), climatic conditions and changes in water and sediment discharge coupled to ice sheet dynamics and the drainage configuration of major rivers in Northwest Europe. Evidence for major erosion during or prior to MIS 6 is preserved. Fluvial sediments of MIS 2 age were identified within the Northern Palaeovalley, providing insights into the scale of erosion by normal fluvial regimes. Seismic and sedimentary facies indicate that deposition predominantly occurred during transgression when accommodation was created in palaeovalleys to allow discrete sediment bodies to form. Sediment reworking over multiple sea-level cycles (Saalian-Eemian-early Weichselian) by fluvial, coastal and marine processes created a multi-lateral, multi-storey succession of palaeovalley-fills that are preserved as a strath terrace. The data presented here reveal a composite erosional and depositional record that has undergone a high degree of reworking over multiple sea-level cycles leading to the preferential preservation of sediments associated with the most recent glacial-interglacial period

Machine learning algorithms performed no better than regression models for prognostication in traumatic brain injury

Objective: We aimed to explore the added value of common machine learning (ML) algorithms for prediction of outcome for moderate and severe traumatic brain injury. Study Design and Setting: We performed logistic regression (LR), lasso regression, and ridge regression with key baseline predictors in the IMPACT-II database (15 studies, n = 11,022). ML algorithms included support vector machines, random forests, gradient boosting machines, and artificial neural networks and were trained using the same predictors. To assess generalizability of predictions, we performed internal, internal-external, and external validation on the recent CENTER-TBI study (patients with Glasgow Coma Scale <13, n = 1,554). Both calibration (calibration slope/intercept) and discrimination (area under the curve) was quantified. Results: In the IMPACT-II database, 3,332/11,022 (30%) died and 5,233(48%) had unfavorable outcome (Glasgow Outcome Scale less than 4). In the CENTER-TBI study, 348/1,554(29%) died and 651(54%) had unfavorable outcome. Discrimination and calibration varied widely between the studies and less so between the studied algorithms. The mean area under the curve was 0.82 for mortality and 0.77 for unfavorable outcomes in the CENTER-TBI study. Conclusion: ML algorithms may not outperform traditional regression approaches in a low-dimensional setting for outcome prediction after moderate or severe traumatic brain injury. Similar to regression-based prediction models, ML algorithms should be rigorously validated to ensure applicability to new populations

Variation in Structure and Process of Care in Traumatic Brain Injury: Provider Profiles of European Neurotrauma Centers Participating in the CENTER-TBI Study.

INTRODUCTION: The strength of evidence underpinning care and treatment recommendations in traumatic brain injury (TBI) is low. Comparative effectiveness research (CER) has been proposed as a framework to provide evidence for optimal care for TBI patients. The first step in CER is to map the existing variation. The aim of current study is to quantify variation in general structural and process characteristics among centers participating in the Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) study. METHODS: We designed a set of 11 provider profiling questionnaires with 321 questions about various aspects of TBI care, chosen based on literature and expert opinion. After pilot testing, questionnaires were disseminated to 71 centers from 20 countries participating in the CENTER-TBI study. Reliability of questionnaires was estimated by calculating a concordance rate among 5% duplicate questions. RESULTS: All 71 centers completed the questionnaires. Median concordance rate among duplicate questions was 0.85. The majority of centers were academic hospitals (n = 65, 92%), designated as a level I trauma center (n = 48, 68%) and situated in an urban location (n = 70, 99%). The availability of facilities for neuro-trauma care varied across centers; e.g. 40 (57%) had a dedicated neuro-intensive care unit (ICU), 36 (51%) had an in-hospital rehabilitation unit and the organization of the ICU was closed in 64% (n = 45) of the centers. In addition, we found wide variation in processes of care, such as the ICU admission policy and intracranial pressure monitoring policy among centers. CONCLUSION: Even among high-volume, specialized neurotrauma centers there is substantial variation in structures and processes of TBI care. This variation provides an opportunity to study effectiveness of specific aspects of TBI care and to identify best practices with CER approaches

Differential cross section measurements for the production of a W boson in association with jets in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV

Measurements are reported of differential cross sections for the production of a W boson, which decays into a muon and a neutrino, in association with jets, as a function of several variables, including the transverse momenta (pT) and pseudorapidities of the four leading jets, the scalar sum of jet transverse momenta (HT), and the difference in azimuthal angle between the directions of each jet and the muon. The data sample of pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV was collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb[superscript −1]. The measured cross sections are compared to predictions from Monte Carlo generators, MadGraph + pythia and sherpa, and to next-to-leading-order calculations from BlackHat + sherpa. The differential cross sections are found to be in agreement with the predictions, apart from the pT distributions of the leading jets at high pT values, the distributions of the HT at high-HT and low jet multiplicity, and the distribution of the difference in azimuthal angle between the leading jet and the muon at low values.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio