Implementation of evidence-based antenatal care in Mozambique: a cluster randomized controlled trial: study protocol

Background: Antenatal care (ANC) reduces maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality directly through the detection and treatment of pregnancy-related illnesses, and indirectly through the detection of women at increased risk of delivery complications. The potential benefits of quality antenatal care services are most significant in low-resource countries where morbidity and mortality levels among women of reproductive age and neonates are higher. WHO developed an ANC model that recommended the delivery of services scientifically proven to improve maternal, perinatal and neonatal outcomes. The aim of this study is to determine the effect of an intervention designed to increase the use of the package of evidence-based services included in the WHO ANC model in Mozambique. The primary hypothesis is that the intervention will increase the use of evidence-based practices during ANC visits in comparison to the standard dissemination channels currently used in the country. Methods: This is a demonstration project to be developed through a facility-based cluster randomized controlled trial with a stepped wedge design. The intervention was tailored, based on formative research findings, to be readily applicable to local prenatal care services and acceptable to local pregnant women and health providers. The intervention includes four components: the provision of kits with all necessary medicines and laboratory supplies for ANC (medical and non-medical equipment), a storage system, a tracking system, and training sessions for health care providers. Ten clinics were selected and will start receiving the intervention in a random order. Outcomes will be computed at each time point when a new clinic starts the intervention. The primary outcomes are the delivery of selected healthcare practices to women attending the first ANC visit, and secondary outcomes are the delivery of selected healthcare practices to women attending second and higher ANC visits as well as the attitude of midwives in relation to adopting the practices. This demonstration project is pragmatic in orientation and will be conducted under routine conditions. Discussion: There is an urgent need for effective and sustainable scaling-up approaches of health interventions in low-resource countries. This can only be accomplished by the engagement of the country’s health stakeholders at all levels. This project aims to achieve improvement in the quality of antenatal care in Mozambique through the implementation of a multifaceted intervention on three levels: policy, organizational and health care delivery levels. The implementation of the trial will probably require a change in accountability and behaviour of health care providers and we expect this change in ‘habits’ will contribute to obtaining reliable health indicators, not only related to research issues, but also to health care outcomes derived from the new health care model. At policy level, the results of this study may suggest a need for revision of the supply chain management system. Given that supply chain management is a major challenge for many low-resource countries, we envisage that important lessons on how to improve the supply chain in Mozambique and other similar settings, will be drawn from this study

Smoking Patterns and Receipt of Cessation Services Among Pregnant Women in Argentina and Uruguay

Introduction: The 5A’s (Ask, Advise, Assess, Assist, and Arrange) strategy, a best-practice approach for cessation counseling, has been widely implemented in high-income countries for pregnant women; however, no studies have evaluated implementation in middle-income countries. The study objectives were to assess smoking patterns and receipt of 5A’s among pregnant women in Buenos Aires, Argentina and Montevideo, Uruguay. Methods: Data were collected through administered questionnaires to women at delivery hospitalizations during October 2011–May 2012. Eligible women attended one of 12 maternity hospitals or 21 associated prenatal care clinics. The questionnaire included demographic data, tobacco use/cessation behaviors, and receipt of the 5A’s. Self-reported cessation was verified with saliva cotinine. Results: Overall, of 3400 pregnant women, 32.8% smoked at the beginning of pregnancy; 11.9% quit upon learning they were pregnant or later during pregnancy, and 20.9% smoked throughout pregnancy. Smoking prevalence varied by country with 16.1% and 26.7% who smoked throughout pregnancy in Argentina and Uruguay, respectively. Among pregnant smokers in Argentina, 23.8% reported that a provider asked them about smoking at more than one prenatal care visit; 18.5% were advised to quit; 5.3% were assessed for readiness to quit, 4.7% were provided assistance, and 0.7% reported follow-up was arranged. In Uruguay, those percentages were 36.3%, 27.9%, 5.4%, 5.6%, and 0.2%, respectively. Conclusions: Approximately, one in six pregnant women smoked throughout pregnancy in Buenos Aires and one in four in Montevideo. However, a low percentage of smokers received any cessation assistance in both countries. Healthcare providers are not fully implementing the recommended 5A’s intervention to help pregnant women quit smoking.Fil: Berrueta, Amanda Mabel. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Morello, Paola. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Alemán, Alicia. Unidad de Investigación Clínica y Epidemiológica Montevideo; UruguayFil: Tong, Van T.. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Estados UnidosFil: Johnson, Carolyn. Tulane School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine; Estados UnidosFil: Dietz, Patricia M.. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Estados UnidosFil: Farr, Sherry L.. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Estados UnidosFil: Mazzoni, Agustina. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Colomar, Mercedes. Unidad de Investigación Clínica y Epidemiológica Montevideo; UruguayFil: Ciganda, Alvaro. Unidad de Investigación Clínica y Epidemiológica Montevideo; UruguayFil: Llambi, Laura. Unidad de Investigación Clínica y Epidemiológica Montevideo; UruguayFil: Becú, Ana. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Gibbons, Luz. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Smith, Ruben A.. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Estados UnidosFil: Buekens, Pierre. Tulane School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine; Estados UnidosFil: Belizan, Jose. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Althabe, Fernando. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentin

Do women prefer caesarean sections? A qualitative evidence synthesis of their views and experiences

Background: Caesarean sections (CS) continue to increase worldwide. Multiple and complex factors are contributing to the increase, including non-clinical factors related to individual women, families and their interactions with health providers. This global qualitative evidence synthesis explores women’s preferences for mode of birth and factors underlying preferences for CS. Methods: Systematic database searches (MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO) were conducted in December 2016 and updated in May 2019 and February 2021. Studies conducted across all resource settings were eligible for inclusion, except those from China and Taiwan which have been reported in a companion publication. Phenomena of interest were opinions, views and perspectives of women regarding preferences for mode of birth, attributes of CS, societal and cultural beliefs about modes of birth, and right to choose mode of birth. Thematic synthesis of data was conducted. Confidence in findings was assessed using GRADE-CERQual. Results: We included 52 studies, from 28 countries, encompassing the views and perspectives of pregnant women, non-pregnant women, women with previous CS, postpartum women, and women’s partners. Most of the studies were conducted in high-income countries and published between 2011 and 2021. Factors underlying women preferences for CS had to do mainly with strong fear of pain and injuries to the mother and child during labour or birth (High confidence), uncertainty regarding vaginal birth (High confidence), and positive views or perceived advantages of CS (High confidence). Women who preferred CS expressed resoluteness about it, but there were also many women who had a clear preference for vaginal birth and those who even developed strategies to keep their birth plans in environments that were not supportive of vaginal births (High confidence). The findings also identified that social, cultural and personal factors as well as attributes related to health systems impact on the reasons underlying women preferences for various modes of birth (High confidence). Conclusions: A wide variety of factors underlie women’s preferences for CS in the absence of medical indications. Major factors contributing to perceptions of CS as preferable include fear of pain, uncertainty with vaginal birth and positive views on CS. Interventions need to address these factors to reduce unnecessary CS

Provision of medical supply kits to improve quality of antenatal care in Mozambique: a stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial

Background High levels of maternal and newborn mortality and morbidity remain a daunting reality in many low-income countries. Several interventions delivered during antenatal care have been shown to improve maternal and newborn outcomes, but stockouts of medical supplies at point of care can prevent implementation of these services. We aimed to evaluate whether a supply chain strategy based on the provision of kits could improve quality of care. Methods We did a pragmatic, stepped-wedge, cluster-randomised controlled trial at ten antenatal care clinics in Mozambique. Clinics were eligible if they were not already implementing the proposed antenatal care package; they served at least 200 new pregnant women per year; they had Maternal and Child Health (MCH) nurses; and they were willing to participate. All women attending antenatal care visits at the participating clinics were included in the trial. Participating clinics were randomly assigned to shift from control to intervention on prespecified start dates. The intervention involved four components (kits with medical supplies, a cupboard to store these supplies, a tracking sheet to monitor stocks, and a one-day training session). The primary outcomes were the proportion of women screened for anaemia and proteinuria, and the proportion of women who received mebendazole in the first antenatal care visit. The intervention was delivered under routine care conditions, and analyses were done according to the intention-to-treat principle. This trial is registered with the Pan African Clinical Trial Registry, number PACTR201306000550192. Findings Between March, 2014, and January, 2016, 218 277 antenatal care visits were registered, with 68 598 first and 149 679 follow-up visits. We found significant improvements in all three primary outcomes. In first visits, 5519 (14·6%) of 37 826 women were screened for anaemia in the control period, compared with 30 057 (97·7%) of 30 772 in the intervention period (adjusted odds ratio 832·40; 99% CI 666·81–1039·11; p<0·0001); 3739 (9·9%) of 37 826 women were screened for proteinuria in the control period, compared with 29 874 (97·1%) of 30 772 in the intervention period (1875·18; 1447·56–2429·11; p<0·0001); and 17 926 (51·4%) of 34 842 received mebendazole in the control period, compared with 24 960 (88·2%) of 28 294 in the intervention period (1·88; 1·70–2·09; p<0·0001). The effect was immediate and sustained over time, with negligible heterogeneity between sites. Interpretation A supply chain strategy that resolves stockouts at point of care can result in a vast improvement in quality during antenatal care visits, when compared with the routine national process for procurement and distribution of supplies. Funding Government of Flanders and the UNDP/UNFPA/UNICEF/WHO/World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction.Fil: Betrán, Ana Pilar. Organizacion Mundial de la Salud; ArgentinaFil: Bergel, Eduardo. World Health Organization; Suiza. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Griffin, Sally. International Centre For Reproductive Health; MozambiqueFil: Melo, Armando. Mozambique Ministry Of Health; MozambiqueFil: Nguyen, My Huong. World Health Organization; SuizaFil: Carbonell, Alicia. World Health Organization; SuizaFil: Mondlane, Santos. Consultório de Estatística E Serviço de Soluções; MozambiqueFil: Merialdi, Mario. World Health Organization; SuizaFil: Temmerman, Marleen. World Health Organization; SuizaFil: Gülmezoglu, A Metin. World Health Organization; SuizaFil: Aleman, Alicia. World Health Organization; SuizaFil: Althabe, Fernando. World Health Organization; Suiza. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Biza, Adriano. World Health Organization; SuizaFil: Crahay, Beatrice. World Health Organization; SuizaFil: Chavane, Leonardo. World Health Organization; SuizaFil: Colomar, Mercedes. World Health Organization; SuizaFil: Delvaux, Therese. World Health Organization; SuizaFil: Dique Ali, Ussumane. World Health Organization; SuizaFil: Fersurela, Lucio. World Health Organization; SuizaFil: Geelhoed, Diederike. World Health Organization; SuizaFil: Jille-Taas, Ingeborg. World Health Organization; SuizaFil: Malapende, Celsa Regina. World Health Organization; SuizaFil: Langa, Célio. World Health Organization; SuizaFil: Osman, Nafissa Bique. World Health Organization; SuizaFil: Requejo, Jennifer. World Health Organization; SuizaFil: Timbe, Geraldo. World Health Organization; Suiz

Prevalence of and reasons for women’s, family members’, and health professionals’ preferences for cesarean section in Iran: a mixed-methods systematic review

Abstract: Background: Cesarean section (CS) rates have been increasing globally. Iran has one of the highest CS rates in the world (47.9%). This review was conducted to assess the prevalence of and reasons for women’s, family members’, and health professionals’ preferences for CS in Iran. Methods and findings: In this mixed-methods systematic review, we searched MEDLINE/PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, POPLINE, PsycINFO, Global Health Library, Google scholar; as well as Iranian scientific databases including SID, and Magiran from 1 January 1990 to 8th October 2019. Primary quantitative, qualitative, and mixed-methods studies that had been conducted in Iran with Persian or English languages were included. Meta-analysis of quantitative studies was conducted by extracting data from 65 cross-sectional, longitudinal, and baseline measurements of interventional studies. For meta-synthesis, we used 26 qualitative studies with designs such as ethnography, phenomenology, case studies, and grounded theory. The Review Manager Version 5.3 and the Comprehensive Meta-Analysis (CMA) software were used for meta-analysis and meta-regression analysis. Results showed that 5.46% of nulliparous women (95% CI 5.38–5.50%; χ2 = 1117.39; df = 28 [p < 0.00001]; I2 = 97%) preferred a CS mode of delivery. Results of subgroup analysis based on the time of pregnancy showed that proportions of preference for CS reported by women were 5.94% (95% CI 5.86–5.99%) in early and middle pregnancy, and 3.81% (95% CI 3.74–3.83%), in late pregnancy. The heterogeneity was high in this review. Most women were pregnant, regardless of their parity; the risk level of participants were unknown, and some Persian publications were appraised as low in quality. A combined inductive and deductive approach was used to synthesis the qualitative data, and CERQual was used to assess confidence in the findings. Meta-synthesis generated 10 emerging themes and three final themes: ‘Women’s factors’, ‘Health professional factors’, andex ‘Health organization, facility, or system factors’. Conclusion: Despite low preference for CS among women, CS rates are still so high. This implies the role of factors beyond the individual will. We identified a multiple individual, health facility, and health system factors which affected the preference for CS in Iran. Numerous attempts were made in recent years to design, test and implement interventions to decrease unnecessary CS in Iran, such as mother-friendly hospitals, standard protocols for labor and birth, preparation classes for women, midwives, and gynaecologists, and workshops for specialists and midwives through the “health sector evolution policy”. Although these programs were effective, high rates of CS persist and more efforts are needed to optimize the use of CS

Implementation of evidence-based antenatal care in Mozambique : a cluster randomized controlled trial: study protocol

Background: Antenatal care (ANC) reduces maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality directly through the detection and treatment of pregnancy-related illnesses, and indirectly through the detection of women at increased risk of delivery complications. The potential benefits of quality antenatal care services are most significant in low-resource countries where morbidity and mortality levels among women of reproductive age and neonates are higher. WHO developed an ANC model that recommended the delivery of services scientifically proven to improve maternal, perinatal and neonatal outcomes. The aim of this study is to determine the effect of an intervention designed to increase the use of the package of evidence-based services included in the WHO ANC model in Mozambique. The primary hypothesis is that the intervention will increase the use of evidence-based practices during ANC visits in comparison to the standard dissemination channels currently used in the country. Methods: This is a demonstration project to be developed through a facility-based cluster randomized controlled trial with a stepped wedge design. The intervention was tailored, based on formative research findings, to be readily applicable to local prenatal care services and acceptable to local pregnant women and health providers. The intervention includes four components: the provision of kits with all necessary medicines and laboratory supplies for ANC (medical and non-medical equipment), a storage system, a tracking system, and training sessions for health care providers. Ten clinics were selected and will start receiving the intervention in a random order. Outcomes will be computed at each time point when a new clinic starts the intervention. The primary outcomes are the delivery of selected health care practices to women attending the first ANC visit, and secondary outcomes are the delivery of selected health care practices to women attending second and higher ANC visits as well as the attitude of midwives in relation to adopting the practices. This demonstration project is pragmatic in orientation and will be conducted under routine conditions. Discussion: There is an urgent need for effective and sustainable scaling-up approaches of health interventions in low-resource countries. This can only be accomplished by the engagement of the country's health stakeholders at all levels. This project aims to achieve improvement in the quality of antenatal care in Mozambique through the implementation of a multifaceted intervention on three levels: policy, organizational and health care delivery levels. The implementation of the trial will probably require a change in accountability and behaviour of health care providers and we expect this change in 'habits' will contribute to obtaining reliable health indicators, not only related to research issues, but also to health care outcomes derived from the new health care model. At policy level, the results of this study may suggest a need for revision of the supply chain management system. Given that supply chain management is a major challenge for many low-resource countries, we envisage that important lessons on how to improve the supply chain in Mozambique and other similar settings, will be drawn from this study

Challenges and opportunities for implementing evidence-based antenatal care in Mozambique: a qualitative study

Background: Maternal mortality remains a daunting problem in Mozambique and many other low-resource countries. High quality antenatal care (ANC) services can improve maternal and newborn health outcomes and increase the likelihood that women will seek skilled delivery care. This study explores the factors influencing provider uptake of the recommended package of ANC interventions in Mozambique. Methods: This study used qualitative research methods including key informant interviews with stakeholders from the health sector and a total of five focus group discussions with women with experience with ANC or women from the community. Study participants were selected from three health centers located in Maputo city, Tete, and Cabo Delgado provinces in Mozambique. Staff responsible for the medicines/supply chain at national, provincial and district level were interviewed. A check list was implemented to confirm the availability of the supplies required for ANC. Deductive content analysis was conducted. Results: Three main groups of factors were identified that hinder the implementation of the ANC package in the study setting: a) system or organizational: include chronic supply chain deficiencies, failures in the continuing education system, lack of regular audits and supervision, absence of an efficient patient record system and poor environmental conditions at the health center; b) health care provider factors: such as limited awareness of current clinical guidelines and a resistant attitude to adopting new recommendations; and c) Users: challenges with accessing ANC, poor recognition amongst women about the purpose and importance of the specific interventions provided through ANC, and widespread perception of an unfriendly environment at the health center. Conclusions: The ANC package in Mozambique is not being fully implemented in the three study facilities, and a major barrier is poor functioning of the supply chain system. Recommendations for improving the implementation of antenatal interventions include ensuring clinical protocols based on the ANC model. Increasing the community understanding of the importance of ANC would improve demand for high quality ANC services. The supply chain functioning could be strengthened through the introduction of a kit system with all the necessary supplies for ANC and a simple monitoring system to track the stock levels is recommended

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61.7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61.4-61.9) in 1980 to 71.8 years (71.5-72.2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11.3 years (3.7-17.4), to 62.6 years (56.5-70.2). Total deaths increased by 4.1% (2.6-5.6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55.8 million (54.9 million to 56.6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17.0% (15.8-18.1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14.1% (12.6-16.0) to 39.8 million (39.2 million to 40.5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13.1% (11.9-14.3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42.1%, 39.1-44.6), malaria (43.1%, 34.7-51.8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29.8%, 24.8-34.9), and maternal disorders (29.1%, 19.3-37.1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe