Mount Etna Sicily: Vulnerability and Resilience during the Pre-Industrial Era

Mount Etna is one of the world’s few continually active continental volcanoes and its frequent flank eruptions have been recorded since classical times. These studies have generated a vast literature which, not only enables the impact of eruptions, recovery from them and aspects of human vulnerability and resilience to be brought into focus, but also provides information that allows an assessment to be made of the interplay between environmental, economic and social forces which has shaped this area into Sicily’s most distinctive region. In this paper we argue that a unique agriculturally-based society, largely developing indigenously and without significant outside assistance, evolved during a long pre-industrial era, which stretched from late antiquity until the 1950s. In terms of loss-bearing, responses were also typically pre-industrial, with the 1923 eruption denoting the close of this period. Responses were managed with relatively little outside help or intervention. The 1928 eruption marked a transition, after which responses involved progressively greater State intervention. In the pre-industrial era eruptions were managed at three levels: through limited State involvement; by mutual support within village communities, in which religious belief and explanations for losses provided both a social cement - the church often providing leadership and pastoral support - and a context in which losses could be explained; and by family and extended family groups. Finally we argue that these indigenous mechanisms of coping hold important lessons about how disasters on Etna may be managed today

A multi-hazard historical catalogue for the city-island-state of Malta (Central Mediterranean)

This is the final version. Available on open access from Springer via the DOI in this recordThe city-island-state of Malta is traditionally viewed as a low-hazard country with the lack of a long historical catalogue of extreme events and their impacts acting as an obstacle to formulating evidence-based policies of disaster risk reduction. In this paper, we present the first multi-hazard historical catalogue for Malta which extends from the Miocene to 2019 CE. Drawing on over 3500 documents and points of reference, including historical documentary data, official records and social media posts, we identify at least 1550 hazard events which collectively have caused the loss of at least 662 lives. Recognising that historical materials relating to Malta are complicated by the presence of a strong temporal bias, we establish a four-point reliability indicator and apply this to each of the 1065 recordings, with the result that some 79% show a high degree of reliability. For an island state where there are significant gaps in the knowledge and understanding of the environmental extremes and their impacts over time, this paper addresses and fills these gaps in order to inform the development of public-facing and evidence-based policies of disaster risk reduction in Malta.Liverpool Hope UniversityUniversity of Malt

Forecasting the duration of volcanic eruptions: an empirical probabilistic model

The ability to forecast future volcanic eruption durations would greatly benefit emergency response planning prior to and during a volcanic crises. This paper introduces a probabilistic model to forecast the duration of future and on-going eruptions. The model fits theoretical distributions to observed duration data and relies on past eruptions being a good indicator of future activity. A dataset of historical Mt. Etna flank eruptions is presented and used to demonstrate the model. The data has been compiled through critical examination of existing literature along with careful consideration of uncertainties on reported eruption start and end dates between the years 1300 AD and 2010 and data following 1600 is considered to be reliable and free of reporting biases. The distribution of eruption durations between the years 1600 and 1670 is found to be statistically different from that following 1670 and represents the culminating phase of a century-scale cycle. The forecasting model is run on two datasets ofMt. Etna flank eruption durations; 1600-2010 and 1670-2010. Each dataset is modelled using a log-logistic distribution with parameter values found by maximum likelihood estimation. Survivor function statistics are applied to the model distributions to forecast (a) the probability of an eruption exceeding a given duration, (b) the probability of an eruption that has already lasted a particular number of days exceeding a given total duration and (c) the duration with a given probability of being exceeded. Results show that excluding the 1600-1670 data has little effect of the forecasting model result, especially where short durations are involved. By assigning the terms ‘likely’ and ‘unlikely’ to probabilities of 66 % and 33 %, respectively the forecasting model is used on the 1600-2010 dataset to indicate that a future flank eruption on Mt. Etna would be likely to exceed 20 days (± 7 days) but unlikely to exceed 68 days (± 29 days). This model can easily be adapted for use on other highly active, well-documented volcanoes or for different duration data such as the duration of explosive episodes or the duration of repose periods between eruptions

Communicating Information on Eruptions and Their Impacts from the Earliest Times Until the Late Twentieth Century

Volcanoes hold a fascination for human beings and, before they were recorded by literate observers, eruptions were portrayed in art, were recalled in legends and became incorporated into religious practices: being viewed as agents of punishment, bounty or intimidation depending upon their state of activity and the culture involved. In the Middle East the earliest depiction of an eruption is a wall painting dating from the Neolithic at Çatal Hüyük and the earliest record dates from the third millennium BCE. Knowledge of volcanoes increased over time. In some parts of the world knowledge of eruptions was passed down by oral transmission, but as far as written records were concerned, in the first century CE only 9 volcanoes in the Mediterranean region were recognised, together with Mount Cameroon in West Africa. In the next 1000 years the list grew by 17, some 14 of these volcanoes being in Japan. The first recorded eruptions in Indonesia occurred in 1000 and 1006, and volcanoes in newly settled Iceland increased the number to just 48 in 1380 CE. After this the list continued to increase, with important regions such as New Zealand and Hawaii only being added in the past 200 years. Only from 1900 did the rate of growth decline significantly (Simkin et al. 1981: 23; Simkin, 1993 Siebert et al. 2011; Simkin, 1993), but it is sobering to recall that in the twentieth century major eruptions have occurred from volcanoes that were considered inactive or extinct examples including: Mount Lamington - Papua New Guinea, 1951; Mount Arenal - Costa Rica, 1968 and Nyos - Cameroon, 1986. Although there are instances where the human impact of historical eruptions have been compiled - with examples including the 1883 eruption of Krakatau (Simkin and Fiske (1983) and 1943 -1952 eruption of Parícutin (Luhr and Simkin, 1993) - these are exceptions and there remains a significant gap in knowledge about both the short and long-term effects on societies of major eruptions which occurred before the 1980s. Following a broad review the chapter provides a discussion of the ways in which information has been collected, compiled and disseminated from the earliest times until the 1980s in two case study areas: the Azores Islands (Portugal) and southern Italy. In Italy information on eruptions stretches back to prehistoric times and has become progressively better known over more than 2,000 years of written history, yet even here there remain significant gaps in the record even for events that took place between 1900 and 1990. In contrast, located in the middle of the Atlantic, the Azores have been isolated for much of their history and illustrate the difficulties involved in using indigenous sources to compile, not only assessments of impact, but also at a more basic level a complete list of historical events with accurate dates

Natural and human-induced Holocene paleoenvironmental changes on the Guadiana shelf (northern Gulf of Cadiz)

Three contrasting sedimentary environments on the continental shelf off the Guadiana River (northern Gulf of Cadiz) were integrated in a chronological framework and analysed in terms of sedimentology and benthic foraminiferal assemblages to understand the Holocene paleoenvironmental evolution. The analysed environments differ in terms of their depositional regimes and benthic foraminiferal assemblages. However, a dominant fluvial origin of the sand fraction was observed in all three environments. Holocene sedimentary processes were mainly controlled by natural (sea level changes and climate variations) and human-induced processes (e.g. deforestation, agriculture) along four evolutionary stages. The three older stages were mainly influenced by natural processes, such as sea level variations and fluvial inputs, whereas the most recent stage reflects a combination of climatic- and human-induced processes. A deepening of sedimentary environments related to a period of rapid sea level rise, strongly influenced by river discharges occurred from c. 11,500 to c. 10,000 cal. yr BP. A reduction in sediment export to the shelf, as a result of the continuous and rapid sea level rise and enhanced estuary infilling reflects the second stage, from c. 10,000 to c. 5000 cal. yr BP. The beginning of the third stage, from c. 5000 to c. 1500–1000 cal. yr BP, is marked by a sea-level slowdown and the relatively stable climate and environmental conditions. The fourth stage, from c. 1500–1000 cal. yr BP to Recent times, reflects the intensification of human-induced processes and climatic variability in the Guadiana River basin. This stage also reflects modern depositional conditions, with the formation of a proximal prodeltaic wedge and a distal muddy body

New physical characterization of the Fontana Lapilli basaltic Plinian eruption, Nicaragua

The Fontana Lapilli deposit was erupted in the late Pleistocene from a vent, or multiple vents, located near Masaya volcano (Nicaragua) and is the product of one of the largest basaltic Plinian eruptions studied so far. This eruption evolved from an initial sequence of fluctuating fountain-like events and moderately explosive pulses to a sustained Plinian episode depositing fall beds of highly vesicular basaltic-andesite scoria (SiO2 > 53 wt%). Samples show unimodal grain size distribution and a moderate sorting that are uniform in time. The juvenile component predominates (> 96 wt%) and consists of vesicular clasts with both sub-angular and fluidal, elongated shapes. We obtain a maximum plume height of 32 km and an associated mass eruption rate of 1.4 × 108 kg s−1 for the Plinian phase. Estimates of erupted volume are strongly sensitive to the technique used for the calculation and to the distribution of field data. Our best estimate for the erupted volume of the majority of the climactic Plinian phase is between 2.9 and 3.8 km3 and was obtained by applying a power-law fitting technique with different integration limits. The estimated eruption duration varies between 4 and 6 h. Marine-core data confirm that the tephra thinning is better fitted by a power-law than by an exponential trend

Mapping Hazard Zones, Rapid Warning Communication and Understanding Communities: Primary Ways to Mitigate Pyroclastic Flow Hazard

Co-auteur étrangerInternational audienc

Nothing Lasts Forever: Environmental Discourses on the Collapse of Past Societies

The study of the collapse of past societies raises many questions for the theory and practice of archaeology. Interest in collapse extends as well into the natural sciences and environmental and sustainability policy. Despite a range of approaches to collapse, the predominant paradigm is environmental collapse, which I argue obscures recognition of the dynamic role of social processes that lie at the heart of human communities. These environmental discourses, together with confusion over terminology and the concepts of collapse, have created widespread aporia about collapse and resulted in the creation of mixed messages about complex historical and social processes

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study

Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings: This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p\textless0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p\textless0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p\textless0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047). Interpretation: Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research