81 research outputs found
Recommended from our members
The tropical influence on subâseasonal predictability of wintertime stratosphere and stratosphereâtroposphere coupling
A unique set of relaxation experiments with a forecast model initialized during DecemberâJanuary 1999â2019 is used to explore tropical influence on the Northern Hemisphere polar stratosphere and stratosphereâtroposphere coupling, to quantify predictability benefits due to the perfect knowledge of the tropical variability. On average, predictability of the polar stratosphere, as represented by the 50 hPa geopotential height anomalies north of 50°N (Z50), increases from 17 days in freely running (control) forecasts to 21 days in the tropical relaxation experiments. At subâseasonal timeâscales, a statistically significant improvement in weekly mean skill scores can be demonstrated in 14%â20% of individual forecast ensembles, mostly in cases when the skill of the corresponding control forecast is worse than average. In these forecasts, rootâmeanâsquare errors and forecast spread of Z50 during forecast weeks 3â5 are decreased by 10%â15%. Stratospheric improvements are detected during periods of both vortex strengthening and vortex weakening, including most major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings that occurred during the study period, via modulation of the upward wave activity fluxes. An active MaddenâJulian Oscillation (MJO) is found in most of these events with MJO phase 5â7 preceding vortex weakening and MJO phase 3â4 preceding vortex strengthening. Forecasts with improved stratospheric circulation also have improved tropospheric circulation during and after the periods when improvements are detected in the stratosphere. We attribute these improvements to both stratosphereâtroposphere coupling and tropospheric tropical teleconnections
Recommended from our members
The influence of stratospheric vortex displacements and splits on surface climate
A strong link exists between stratospheric variability and anomalous weather patterns at the earthâs surface. Specifically, during extreme variability of the Arctic polar vortex termed a âweak vortex event,â anomalies can descend from the upper stratosphere to the surface on time scales of weeks. Subsequently the outbreak of cold-air events have been noted in high northern latitudes, as well as a quadrupole pattern in surface temperature over the Atlantic and western European sectors, but it is currently not understood why certain events descend to the surface while others do not. This study compares a new classification technique of weak vortex events, based on the distribution of potential vorticity, with that of an existing technique and demonstrates that the subdivision of such events into vortex displacements and vortex splits has important implications for tropospheric weather patterns on weekly to monthly time scales. Using reanalysis data it is found that vortex splitting events are correlated with surface weather and lead to positive temperature anomalies over eastern North America of more than 1.5 K, and negative anomalies over Eurasia of up to â3 K. Associated with this is an increase in high-latitude blocking in both the Atlantic and Pacific sectors and a decrease in European blocking. The corresponding signals are weaker during displacement events, although ultimately they are shown to be related to cold-air outbreaks over North America. Because of the importance of stratosphereâtroposphere coupling for seasonal climate predictability, identifying the type of stratospheric variability in order to capture the correct surface response will be necessary
The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century
Future stratospheric ozone concentrations will be determined both by changes in the concentration of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and by changes in stratospheric and tropospheric climate, including those caused by changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). Since future economic development pathways and resultant emissions of GHGs are uncertain, anthropogenic climate change could be a significant source of uncertainty for future projections of stratospheric ozone. In this pilot study, using an "ensemble of opportunity" of chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, the contribution of scenario uncertainty from different plausible emissions pathways for ODSs and GHGs to future ozone projections is quantified relative to the contribution from model uncertainty and internal variability of the chemistry-climate system. For both the global, annual mean ozone concentration and for ozone in specific geographical regions, differences between CCMs are the dominant source of uncertainty for the first two-thirds of the 21st century, up-to and after the time when ozone concentrations return to 1980 values. In the last third of the 21st century, dependent upon the set of greenhouse gas scenarios used, scenario uncertainty can be the dominant contributor. This result suggests that investment in chemistry-climate modelling is likely to continue to refine projections of stratospheric ozone and estimates of the return of stratospheric ozone concentrations to pre-1980 levels
Search for Higgs Bosons in e+e- Collisions at 183 GeV
The data collected by the OPAL experiment at sqrts=183 GeV were used to
search for Higgs bosons which are predicted by the Standard Model and various
extensions, such as general models with two Higgs field doublets and the
Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM). The data correspond to an
integrated luminosity of approximately 54pb-1. None of the searches for neutral
and charged Higgs bosons have revealed an excess of events beyond the expected
background. This negative outcome, in combination with similar results from
searches at lower energies, leads to new limits for the Higgs boson masses and
other model parameters. In particular, the 95% confidence level lower limit for
the mass of the Standard Model Higgs boson is 88.3 GeV. Charged Higgs bosons
can be excluded for masses up to 59.5 GeV. In the MSSM, mh > 70.5 GeV and mA >
72.0 GeV are obtained for tan{beta}>1, no and maximal scalar top mixing and
soft SUSY-breaking masses of 1 TeV. The range 0.8 < tanb < 1.9 is excluded for
minimal scalar top mixing and m{top} < 175 GeV. More general scans of the MSSM
parameter space are also considered.Comment: 49 pages. LaTeX, including 33 eps figures, submitted to European
Physical Journal
A Measurement of the Product Branching Ratio f(b->Lambda_b).BR(Lambda_b->Lambda X) in Z0 Decays
The product branching ratio, f(b->Lambda_b).BR(Lambda_b->Lambda X), where
Lambda_b denotes any weakly-decaying b-baryon, has been measured using the OPAL
detector at LEP. Lambda_b are selected by the presence of energetic Lambda
particles in bottom events tagged by the presence of displaced secondary
vertices. A fit to the momenta of the Lambda particles separates signal from B
meson and fragmentation backgrounds. The measured product branching ratio is
f(b->Lambda_b).BR(Lambda_b->Lambda X) = (2.67+-0.38(stat)+0.67-0.60(sys))%
Combined with a previous OPAL measurement, one obtains
f(b->Lambda_b).BR(Lambda_b->Lambda X) = (3.50+-0.32(stat)+-0.35(sys))%.Comment: 16 pages, LaTeX, 3 eps figs included, submitted to the European
Physical Journal
Measurement of the Michel Parameters in Leptonic Tau Decays
The Michel parameters of the leptonic tau decays are measured using the OPAL
detector at LEP. The Michel parameters are extracted from the energy spectra of
the charged decay leptons and from their energy-energy correlations. A new
method involving a global likelihood fit of Monte Carlo generated events with
complete detector simulation and background treatment has been applied to the
data recorded at center-of-mass energies close to sqrt(s) = M(Z) corresponding
to an integrated luminosity of 155 pb-1 during the years 1990 to 1995. If e-mu
universality is assumed and inferring the tau polarization from neutral current
data, the measured Michel parameters are extracted. Limits on non-standard
coupling constants and on the masses of new gauge bosons are obtained. The
results are in agreement with the V-A prediction of the Standard Model.Comment: 32 pages, LaTeX, 9 eps figures included, submitted to the European
Physical Journal
Measurements of , and in Collisions at 130-189 GeV
The cross-section ratio Rb=sigma(e+e- to b-antib)/sigma(e+e- to q-antiq) andthe bottom and charm forward-backward asymmetries AFB^b and AFB^c are measuredusing event samples collected by the OPAL detector at centre-of-mass energiesbetween 130 and 189 GeV. Events with bottom quark production are selected witha secondary vertex tag, and a hemisphere charge algorithm is used to extractAFB^b. In addition, the bottom and charm asymmetries are measured using leptonsfrom semileptonic decays of heavy hadrons and pions from D*+ to D0pi+ decays.The results are in agreement with the Standard Model predictions.The cross-section ratio Rb=sigma(e+e- to b-antib)/sigma(e+e- to q-antiq) and the bottom and charm forward-backward asymmetries AFB^b and AFB^c are measured using event samples collected by the OPAL detector at centre-of-mass energies between 130 and 189 GeV. Events with bottom quark production are selected with a secondary vertex tag, and a hemisphere charge algorithm is used to extract AFB^b. In addition, the bottom and charm asymmetries are measured using leptons from semileptonic decays of heavy hadrons and pions from D*+ to D0pi+ decays. The results are in agreement with the Standard Model predictions
Search for dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks in âs = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector
A search for weakly interacting massive particle dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks is presented. Final states containing third-generation quarks and miss- ing transverse momentum are considered. The analysis uses 36.1 fbâ1 of protonâproton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at âs = 13 TeV in 2015 and 2016. No significant excess of events above the estimated backgrounds is observed. The results are in- terpreted in the framework of simplified models of spin-0 dark-matter mediators. For colour- neutral spin-0 mediators produced in association with top quarks and decaying into a pair of dark-matter particles, mediator masses below 50 GeV are excluded assuming a dark-matter candidate mass of 1 GeV and unitary couplings. For scalar and pseudoscalar mediators produced in association with bottom quarks, the search sets limits on the production cross- section of 300 times the predicted rate for mediators with masses between 10 and 50 GeV and assuming a dark-matter mass of 1 GeV and unitary coupling. Constraints on colour- charged scalar simplified models are also presented. Assuming a dark-matter particle mass of 35 GeV, mediator particles with mass below 1.1 TeV are excluded for couplings yielding a dark-matter relic density consistent with measurements
Inclusive production of charged hadrons and mesons in photon-photon collisions
The production of charged hadrons and K_s mesons in the collisions of quasi-real photons has been measured using the OPAL detector at LEP. The data were taken at e+e- centre-of-mass energies of 161 and 172 GeV. The differential cross-sections as a function of the transverse momentum and the pseudorapidity of the charged hadrons and K_s mesons have been compared to the leading order Monte Carlo simulations of PHOJET and PYTHIA and to perturbative next-to-leading order (NLO) QCD calculations. The distributions have been measured in the range 10-125 GeV of the hadronic invariant mass W. By comparing the transverse momentum distribution of charged hadrons measured in gamma-gamma interactions with gamma-proton and meson-proton data we find evidence for hard photon interactions in addition to the purely hadronic photon interactions.The production of charged hadrons and K_s mesons in the collisions of quasi-real photons has been measured using the OPAL detector at LEP. The data were taken at e+e- centre-of-mass energies of 161 and 172 GeV. The differential cross-sections as a function of the transverse momentum and the pseudorapidity of the charged hadrons and K_s mesons have been compared to the leading order Monte Carlo simulations of PHOJET and PYTHIA and to perturbative next-to-leading order (NLO) QCD calculations. The distributions have been measured in the range 10-125 GeV of the hadronic invariant mass W. By comparing the transverse momentum distribution of charged hadrons measured in gamma-gamma interactions with gamma-proton and meson-proton data we find evidence for hard photon interactions in addition to the purely hadronic photon interactions
Measurement of the and lifetimes and search for CP(T) violation using reconstructed secondary vertices
The lifetimes of the B+ and B0 mesons, and their ratio, have been measured in the OPAL experiment using 2.4 million hadronic Z0 decays recorded at LEP. Z0 -> b bbar decays were tagged using displaced secondary vertices and high momentum electrons and muons. The lifetimes were then measured using well-reconstructed charged and neutral secondary vertices selected in this tagged data sample. The results are tau(B+) = 1.643 +- 0.037 +- 0.025 ps tau(B0) = 1.523 +- 0.057 +- 0.053 ps ratio tau(B+)/tau(B0) = 1.079 +- 0.064 +- 0.041 where in each case the first error is statistical and the second systematic. A larger data sample of 3.1 million hadronic Z0 decays has been used to search for CP and CPT violating effects by comparison of inclusive b and bbar hadron decays. No evidence for such effects is seen. The CP violation parameter Re(epsilon_B) is measured to be Re(epsilon_B) = 0.001 +- 0.014 +- 0.003 and the fractional difference between b and bbar hadron lifetimes is measured to be -0.001 +- 0.012 +- 0.00
- âŠ