On the use of Singular Spectrum Analysis for Forecasting U.S. Trade before, during and after the 2008 Recession

This paper is aimed at introducing the powerful, nonparametric time series analysis and forecasting technique of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) for trade forecasting via an application which evaluates the impact of the 2008 recession on U.S. trade forecasting models. This research is felicitous given the magnitude of the structural break visible in the U.S. trade series following the 2008 economic crisis. Structural breaks resulting from such recessions might affect conclusions from traditional unit root tests and forecasting models which makes use of these tests. As such, it is prudent to evaluate the sensitivity and reliability of parametric, historical trade forecasting models in comparison to the relatively modern, nonparametric models. In doing so, we introduce the SSA technique for trade forecasting and perform exhaustive statistical tests on the data for normality, stationarity and change points, and the forecasting results for statistical significance prior to reaching the well-founded conclusion that SSA is less sensitive to the impact of recessions on U.S. trade, in comparison to an optimized ARIMA model, Exponential Smoothing and Neural Network models. Ergo, we conclude that SSA is able to provide more accurate forecasts for U.S. trade in the face of recessions, and is therefore presented as an apt alternative for U.S. trade forecasting before, during and after a future recession

Potent Inhibition of HIV-1 Replication by a Tat Mutant

Herein we describe a mutant of the two-exon HIV-1 Tat protein, termed Nullbasic, that potently inhibits multiple steps of the HIV-1 replication cycle. Nullbasic was created by replacing the entire arginine-rich basic domain of wild type Tat with glycine/alanine residues. Like similarly mutated one-exon Tat mutants, Nullbasic exhibited transdominant negative effects on Tat-dependent transactivation. However, unlike previously reported mutants, we discovered that Nullbasic also strongly suppressed the expression of unspliced and singly-spliced viral mRNA, an activity likely caused by redistribution and thus functional inhibition of HIV-1 Rev. Furthermore, HIV-1 virion particles produced by cells expressing Nullbasic had severely reduced infectivity, a defect attributable to a reduced ability of the virions to undergo reverse transcription. Combination of these inhibitory effects on transactivation, Rev-dependent mRNA transport and reverse transcription meant that permissive cells constitutively expressing Nullbasic were highly resistant to a spreading infection by HIV-1. Nullbasic and its activities thus provide potential insights into the development of potent antiviral therapeutics that target multiple stages of HIV-1 infection

The Actin-Binding Protein Capulet Genetically Interacts with the Microtubule Motor Kinesin to Maintain Neuronal Dendrite Homeostasis

BACKGROUND: Neurons require precise cytoskeletal regulation within neurites, containing microtubule tracks for cargo transport in axons and dendrites or within synapses containing organized actin. Due to the unique architecture and specialized function of neurons, neurons are particularly susceptible to perturbation of the cytoskeleton. Numerous actin-binding proteins help maintain proper cytoskeletal regulation. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From a Drosophila forward genetic screen, we identified a mutation in capulet--encoding a conserved actin-binding protein--that causes abnormal aggregates of actin within dendrites. Through interaction studies, we demonstrate that simultaneous genetic inactivation of capulet and kinesin heavy chain, a microtubule motor protein, produces elongate cofilin-actin rods within dendrites but not axons. These rods resemble actin-rich structures induced in both mammalian neurodegenerative and Drosophila Alzheimer's models, but have not previously been identified by loss of function mutations in vivo. We further demonstrate that mitochondria, which are transported by Kinesin, have impaired distribution along dendrites in a capulet mutant. While Capulet and Cofilin may biochemically cooperate in certain circumstances, in neuronal dendrites they genetically antagonize each other. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The present study is the first molecularly defined loss of function demonstration of actin-cofilin rods in vivo. This study suggests that simultaneous, seemingly minor perturbations in neuronal dendrites can synergize producing severe abnormalities affecting actin, microtubules and mitochondria/energy availability in dendrites. Additionally, as >90% of Alzheimer's and Parkinson's cases are sporadic this study suggests mechanisms by which multiple mutations together may contribute to neurodegeneration instead of reliance on single mutations to produce disease

Nutritional profile and obesity: results from a random‑sample population‑based study in Córdoba, Argentina

Introduction Obesity is a chronic, heterogeneous, multifactorial disease, which has sharply increased in prevalence in both developed and developing countries. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of obesity and to identify socio-demographic risk factors associated with it, with special emphasis on diet. Methods Nutritional status, demographic characteristics, lifestyle habits, and food consumption patterns derived from a Food Frequency Questionnaire were investigated. Exhaustive exploratory analyses were performed in order to describe dietary patterns, and logistic regression models were used for odds ratio estimation. Results The study included 4328 subjects, over 18 years old and resident in Cordoba city. The prevalence of overweight and obesity was 34 and 17 %, respectively, with 60 % in men and 45 % in women of BMI ≥ 25. Obesity risk factors were high intake of sodium, refined grains, starchy vegetables, and snacks. A lower risk of overweight and obesity was associated with an adequate, moderate intake of meats, eggs, alcoholic beverages, sugar and sweets, milk, yogurt, and pulses. Conclusions A high intake of snacks, refined grains, starchy vegetables and sodium and low intake of yogurt, milk, pulses, and whole grains seem to be associated with the emergence and high prevalence of obesity in Cordoba, Argentina.publishedVersionFil: Aballay, Laura Rosana. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Médicas. Escuela de Nutrición. Estadística y Bioestadística; ArgentinaFil: Aballay, Laura Rosana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias de la Salud; Argentina.Fil: De la Quintana, Ana Gabriela. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Médicas. Escuela de Nutrición; Argentina.Fil: Díaz, María del Pilar. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Médicas. Escuela de Nutrición. Estadística y Bioestadística; Argentina.Fil: Díaz, María del Pilar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias de la Salud; Argentina.Fil: Osella, Alberto R. Hospital Saverio de Bellis. Laboratorio de Epidemiologia y Bioestadística; Italia

True heterotopic bone in the paralyzed patient

In past years the clinical and radiologic presentation of true heterotopic bone in the paralyzed patient has been confused with osteomyelitis, neoplasm, trauma, and thrombophlebitis. We reviewed 376 paralyzed patients' roentgenographic files and found 78 patients with soft tissue ossification unassociated with infection, neoplasm, or underlying fractures, which we called true heterotopic bone. From this population the usual spectrum of radiologic findings is described, so that the radiologist may separate roentgenographically a group of patients from other types of ectopic ossification.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/46816/1/256_2004_Article_BF00347167.pd

Laparoscopy in management of appendicitis in high-, middle-, and low-income countries: a multicenter, prospective, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Appendicitis is the most common abdominal surgical emergency worldwide. Differences between high- and low-income settings in the availability of laparoscopic appendectomy, alternative management choices, and outcomes are poorly described. The aim was to identify variation in surgical management and outcomes of appendicitis within low-, middle-, and high-Human Development Index (HDI) countries worldwide. METHODS: This is a multicenter, international prospective cohort study. Consecutive sampling of patients undergoing emergency appendectomy over 6 months was conducted. Follow-up lasted 30 days. RESULTS: 4546 patients from 52 countries underwent appendectomy (2499 high-, 1540 middle-, and 507 low-HDI groups). Surgical site infection (SSI) rates were higher in low-HDI (OR 2.57, 95% CI 1.33-4.99, p = 0.005) but not middle-HDI countries (OR 1.38, 95% CI 0.76-2.52, p = 0.291), compared with high-HDI countries after adjustment. A laparoscopic approach was common in high-HDI countries (1693/2499, 67.7%), but infrequent in low-HDI (41/507, 8.1%) and middle-HDI (132/1540, 8.6%) groups. After accounting for case-mix, laparoscopy was still associated with fewer overall complications (OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.42-0.71, p < 0.001) and SSIs (OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.14-0.33, p < 0.001). In propensity-score matched groups within low-/middle-HDI countries, laparoscopy was still associated with fewer overall complications (OR 0.23 95% CI 0.11-0.44) and SSI (OR 0.21 95% CI 0.09-0.45). CONCLUSION: A laparoscopic approach is associated with better outcomes and availability appears to differ by country HDI. Despite the profound clinical, operational, and financial barriers to its widespread introduction, laparoscopy could significantly improve outcomes for patients in low-resource environments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02179112

Pooled analysis of WHO Surgical Safety Checklist use and mortality after emergency laparotomy

Background The World Health Organization (WHO) Surgical Safety Checklist has fostered safe practice for 10 years, yet its place in emergency surgery has not been assessed on a global scale. The aim of this study was to evaluate reported checklist use in emergency settings and examine the relationship with perioperative mortality in patients who had emergency laparotomy. Methods In two multinational cohort studies, adults undergoing emergency laparotomy were compared with those having elective gastrointestinal surgery. Relationships between reported checklist use and mortality were determined using multivariable logistic regression and bootstrapped simulation. Results Of 12 296 patients included from 76 countries, 4843 underwent emergency laparotomy. After adjusting for patient and disease factors, checklist use before emergency laparotomy was more common in countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI) (2455 of 2741, 89.6 per cent) compared with that in countries with a middle (753 of 1242, 60.6 per cent; odds ratio (OR) 0.17, 95 per cent c.i. 0.14 to 0.21, P <0001) or low (363 of 860, 422 per cent; OR 008, 007 to 010, P <0.001) HDI. Checklist use was less common in elective surgery than for emergency laparotomy in high-HDI countries (risk difference -94 (95 per cent c.i. -11.9 to -6.9) per cent; P <0001), but the relationship was reversed in low-HDI countries (+121 (+7.0 to +173) per cent; P <0001). In multivariable models, checklist use was associated with a lower 30-day perioperative mortality (OR 0.60, 0.50 to 073; P <0.001). The greatest absolute benefit was seen for emergency surgery in low- and middle-HDI countries. Conclusion Checklist use in emergency laparotomy was associated with a significantly lower perioperative mortality rate. Checklist use in low-HDI countries was half that in high-HDI countries.Peer reviewe

Search for dark matter produced in association with a Higgs boson decaying to a pair of bottom quarks in proton-proton collisions at root s=13TeV

A search for dark matter produced in association with a Higgs boson decaying to a pair of bottom quarks is performed in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV collected with the CMS detector at the LHC. The analyzed data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb(-1). The signal is characterized by a large missing transverse momentum recoiling against a bottom quark-antiquark system that has a large Lorentz boost. The number of events observed in the data is consistent with the standard model background prediction. Results are interpreted in terms of limits both on parameters of the type-2 two-Higgs doublet model extended by an additional light pseudoscalar boson a (2HDM+a) and on parameters of a baryonic Z simplified model. The 2HDM+a model is tested experimentally for the first time. For the baryonic Z model, the presented results constitute the most stringent constraints to date.Peer reviewe

A Deep Neural Network for Simultaneous Estimation of b Jet Energy and Resolution

We describe a method to obtain point and dispersion estimates for the energies of jets arising from b quarks produced in proton-proton collisions at an energy of s = 13 TeV at the CERN LHC. The algorithm is trained on a large sample of simulated b jets and validated on data recorded by the CMS detector in 2017 corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 41 fb - 1 . A multivariate regression algorithm based on a deep feed-forward neural network employs jet composition and shape information, and the properties of reconstructed secondary vertices associated with the jet. The results of the algorithm are used to improve the sensitivity of analyses that make use of b jets in the final state, such as the observation of Higgs boson decay to b b ¯