A Combining Forecasting Modeling and Its Application

Part 5: Modelling and SimulationInternational audienceThe supply chain coordination has abstracted more and more attention from industries and academics. This paper studies a Bayesian combination forecasting model to integrate multiple forecasting resources and coordinate forecasting process among partners in retail supply chain. The simulation results based on the retail sales data show the effectiveness of this Bayesian combination forecasting model to coordinate the collaborative forecasting process. This Bayesian combination forecasting model can improve demand forecasting accuracy of supply chain

Managerial judgment and forecast combination: An experimental study

This paper examines the role of managerial judgment in forming a final forecast, or judging the achievability of a critical level of sales, when multiple forecasts or opinions are available to the decision maker. Several factors that can help improve the quality of human intervention are identified and incorporated in a decision aid. Experimental results show that aided combination can help the decision maker exploit her relevant private information and mitigate the generally observed negative effects of human intervention. Further, the results suggest that emphasizing expected sales, even when the organization is primarily interested in go/no-go decisions, helps improve performance. Several suggestions for future research are presented.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/47133/1/11002_2004_Article_BF00993954.pd

Search for the standard model Higgs boson decaying into two photons in pp collisions at sqrt(s)=7 TeV

A search for a Higgs boson decaying into two photons is described. The analysis is performed using a dataset recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC from pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV, which corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 4.8 inverse femtobarns. Limits are set on the cross section of the standard model Higgs boson decaying to two photons. The expected exclusion limit at 95% confidence level is between 1.4 and 2.4 times the standard model cross section in the mass range between 110 and 150 GeV. The analysis of the data excludes, at 95% confidence level, the standard model Higgs boson decaying into two photons in the mass range 128 to 132 GeV. The largest excess of events above the expected standard model background is observed for a Higgs boson mass hypothesis of 124 GeV with a local significance of 3.1 sigma. The global significance of observing an excess with a local significance greater than 3.1 sigma anywhere in the search range 110-150 GeV is estimated to be 1.8 sigma. More data are required to ascertain the origin of this excess.Comment: Submitted to Physics Letters

Measurement of isolated photon production in pp and PbPb collisions at sqrt(sNN) = 2.76 TeV

Isolated photon production is measured in proton-proton and lead-lead collisions at nucleon-nucleon centre-of-mass energies of 2.76 TeV in the pseudorapidity range |eta|<1.44 and transverse energies ET between 20 and 80 GeV with the CMS detector at the LHC. The measured ET spectra are found to be in good agreement with next-to-leading-order perturbative QCD predictions. The ratio of PbPb to pp isolated photon ET-differential yields, scaled by the number of incoherent nucleon-nucleon collisions, is consistent with unity for all PbPb reaction centralities.Comment: Submitted to Physics Letters

Weak Lensing and Dark Energy

We study the power of upcoming weak lensing surveys to probe dark energy. Dark energy modifies the distance-redshift relation as well as the matter power spectrum, both of which affect the weak lensing convergence power spectrum. Some dark-energy models predict additional clustering on very large scales, but this probably cannot be detected by weak lensing alone due to cosmic variance. With reasonable prior information on other cosmological parameters, we find that a survey covering 1000 sq. deg. down to a limiting magnitude of R=27 can impose constraints comparable to those expected from upcoming type Ia supernova and number-count surveys. This result, however, is contingent on the control of both observational and theoretical systematics. Concentrating on the latter, we find that the {\it nonlinear} power spectrum of matter perturbations and the redshift distribution of source galaxies both need to be determined accurately in order for weak lensing to achieve its full potential. Finally, we discuss the sensitivity of the three-point statistics to dark energy.Comment: 16 pages, revtex. Peacock-Dodds PS used for all w, which weakens the constraints. Tomography sec. expanded, estimate included of how well systematics need to be controlle

Measurement of the mass difference between top quark and antiquark in pp collisions at root s=8 TeV

Peer reviewe

Search for a W ' boson decaying to a muon and a neutrino in pp collisions at √s =7 TeV

This is the Pre-Print version of the Article. The official published version can be accessed from the link below - Copyright @ 2011 ElsevierA new heavy gauge boson, W', decaying to a muon and a neutrino, is searched for in pp collisions at a centre-of-mass of 7 TeV. The data, collected with the CMS detector at the LHC, correspond to an integrated luminosity of 36 inverse picobarns. No significant excess of events above the standard model expectation is found in the transverse mass distribution of the muon-neutrino system. Masses below 1.40 TeV are excluded at the 95% confidence level for a sequential standard-model-like W'. The W' mass lower limit increases to 1.58 TeV when the present analysis is combined with the CMS result for the electron channel.This work is supported by the FMSR (Austria); FNRS and FWO (Belgium); CNPq, CAPES, FAPERJ, and FAPESP (Brazil); MES (Bulgaria); CERN; CAS, MoST, and NSFC (China); COLCIENCIAS (Colombia); MSES (Croatia); RPF (Cyprus); Academy of Sciences and NICPB (Estonia); Academy of Finland, ME, and HIP (Finland); CEA and CNRS/IN2P3 (France); BMBF, DFG, and HGF (Germany); GSRT (Greece); OTKA and NKTH (Hungary); DAE and DST (India); IPM (Iran); SFI (Ireland); INFN (Italy); NRF and WCU (Korea); LAS (Lithuania); CINVESTAV, CONACYT, SEP, and UASLP-FAI (Mexico); PAEC (Pakistan); SCSR (Poland); FCT (Portugal); JINR (Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan); MST and MAE (Russia); MSTD (Serbia); MICINN and CPAN (Spain); Swiss Funding Agencies (Switzerland); NSC (Taipei); TUBITAK and TAEK (Turkey); STFC (United Kingdom); DOE and NSF (USA)

Observation of a new Xi(b) baryon

The first observation of a new b baryon via its strong decay into Xi(b)^- pi^+ (plus charge conjugates) is reported. The measurement uses a data sample of pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5.3 inverse femtobarns. The known Xi(b)^- baryon is reconstructed via the decay chain Xi(b)^- to J/psi Xi^- to mu^+ mu^- Lambda^0 pi^-, with Lambda^0 to p pi^-. A peak is observed in the distribution of the difference between the mass of the Xi(b)^- pi^+ system and the sum of the masses of the Xi(b)^- and pi^+, with a significance exceeding five standard deviations. The mass difference of the peak is 14.84 +/- 0.74 (stat.) +/- 0.28 (syst.) MeV. The new state most likely corresponds to the J^P=3/2^+ companion of the Xi(b).Comment: Submitted to Physical Review Letter

Measurement of the charge ratio of atmospheric muons with the CMS detector

This is the pre-print version of this Article. The official published version can be accessed from the link below - Copyright @ 2010 ElsevierWe present a measurement of the ratio of positive to negative muon fluxes from cosmic ray interactions in the atmosphere, using data collected by the CMS detector both at ground level and in the underground experimental cavern at the CERN LHC. Muons were detected in the momentum range from 5 GeV/c to 1 TeV/c. The surface flux ratio is measured to be 1.2766 \pm 0.0032(stat.) \pm 0.0032 (syst.), independent of the muon momentum, below 100 GeV/c. This is the most precise measurement to date. At higher momenta the data are consistent with an increase of the charge ratio, in agreement with cosmic ray shower models and compatible with previous measurements by deep-underground experiments