464 research outputs found
Demand forecasting: a case study in the food industry
The use of forecasting methods is nowadays regarded as a business ally since it supports both the operational and the strategic decision-making processes. This paper is based on a research project aiming the development of demand forecasting models for a company (designated here by PR) that operates in the food business, more specifically in the delicatessen segment. In particular, we focused on demand forecasting models that can serve as a tool to support production planning and inventory management at the company. The analysis of the company’s operations led to the development of a new demand forecasting tool based on a combination of forecasts, which is now being used and tested by the company.This work has been supported by FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia
within the Project Scope: UID/CEC/00319/201
Eliciting Dirichlet and Gaussian copula prior distributions for multinomial models
In this paper, we propose novel methods of quantifying expert opinion about prior distributions for multinomial models. Two different multivariate priors are elicited using median and quartile assessments of the multinomial probabilities. First, we start by eliciting a univariate beta distribution for the probability of each category. Then we elicit the hyperparameters of the Dirichlet distribution, as a tractable conjugate prior, from those of the univariate betas through various forms of reconciliation using least-squares techniques. However, a multivariate copula function will give a more flexible correlation structure between multinomial parameters if it is used as their multivariate prior distribution. So, second, we use beta marginal distributions to construct a Gaussian copula as a multivariate normal distribution function that binds these marginals and expresses the dependence structure between them. The proposed method elicits a positive-definite correlation matrix of this Gaussian copula. The two proposed methods are designed to be used through interactive graphical software written in Java
Impact of Carnivory on Human Development and Evolution Revealed by a New Unifying Model of Weaning in Mammals
Our large brain, long life span and high fertility are key elements of human evolutionary success and are often thought to have evolved in interplay with tool use, carnivory and hunting. However, the specific impact of carnivory on human evolution, life history and development remains controversial. Here we show in quantitative terms that dietary profile is a key factor influencing time to weaning across a wide taxonomic range of mammals, including humans. In a model encompassing a total of 67 species and genera from 12 mammalian orders, adult brain mass and two dichotomous variables reflecting species differences regarding limb biomechanics and dietary profile, accounted for 75.5%, 10.3% and 3.4% of variance in time to weaning, respectively, together capturing 89.2% of total variance. Crucially, carnivory predicted the time point of early weaning in humans with remarkable precision, yielding a prediction error of less than 5% with a sample of forty-six human natural fertility societies as reference. Hence, carnivory appears to provide both a necessary and sufficient explanation as to why humans wean so much earlier than the great apes. While early weaning is regarded as essentially differentiating the genus Homo from the great apes, its timing seems to be determined by the same limited set of factors in humans as in mammals in general, despite some 90 million years of evolution. Our analysis emphasizes the high degree of similarity of relative time scales in mammalian development and life history across 67 genera from 12 mammalian orders and shows that the impact of carnivory on time to weaning in humans is quantifiable, and critical. Since early weaning yields shorter interbirth intervals and higher rates of reproduction, with profound effects on population dynamics, our findings highlight the emergence of carnivory as a process fundamentally determining human evolution
A comparison of two methods for expert elicitation in health technology assessments.
BACKGROUND: When data needed to inform parameters in decision models are lacking, formal elicitation of expert judgement can be used to characterise parameter uncertainty. Although numerous methods for eliciting expert opinion as probability distributions exist, there is little research to suggest whether one method is more useful than any other method. This study had three objectives: (i) to obtain subjective probability distributions characterising parameter uncertainty in the context of a health technology assessment; (ii) to compare two elicitation methods by eliciting the same parameters in different ways; (iii) to collect subjective preferences of the experts for the different elicitation methods used. METHODS: Twenty-seven clinical experts were invited to participate in an elicitation exercise to inform a published model-based cost-effectiveness analysis of alternative treatments for prostate cancer. Participants were individually asked to express their judgements as probability distributions using two different methods - the histogram and hybrid elicitation methods - presented in a random order. Individual distributions were mathematically aggregated across experts with and without weighting. The resulting combined distributions were used in the probabilistic analysis of the decision model and mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and the expected values of perfect information (EVPI) were calculated for each method, and compared with the original cost-effectiveness analysis. Scores on the ease of use of the two methods and the extent to which the probability distributions obtained from each method accurately reflected the expert's opinion were also recorded. RESULTS: Six experts completed the task. Mean ICERs from the probabilistic analysis ranged between £162,600-£175,500 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) depending on the elicitation and weighting methods used. Compared to having no information, use of expert opinion decreased decision uncertainty: the EVPI value at the £30,000 per QALY threshold decreased by 74-86 % from the original cost-effectiveness analysis. Experts indicated that the histogram method was easier to use, but attributed a perception of more accuracy to the hybrid method. CONCLUSIONS: Inclusion of expert elicitation can decrease decision uncertainty. Here, choice of method did not affect the overall cost-effectiveness conclusions, but researchers intending to use expert elicitation need to be aware of the impact different methods could have.This paper presents independent research funded by the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC) for the South West Peninsula
Direct observations of the effect of fine sediment deposition on the vertical movement of Gammarus pulex (Amphipoda: Gammaridae) during substratum drying
Benthic macroinvertebrates inhabit the streambed sediments of temporary streams during drying events. Fine sediment (< 2 mm in diameter) deposition and clogging of interstitial pathways reduces the connectivity between benthic and subsurface habitats, potentially inhibiting macroinvertebrate vertical movements. Direct observations within subsurface sediments are, however, inherently difficult. As a result, confirmation of macroinvertebrate vertical movement, and the effect of fine sediment, is limited. We used laboratory mesocosms containing transparent gravel sized particles (10–15 mm) to facilitate the direct observation and tracking of vertical movements by Gammarus pulex in response to water level reduction and sedimentation. Seven sediment treatments comprised two fine sediment fractions (small: 0.125–0.5 mm, coarse sand: 0.5–1 mm) deposited onto the surface of the substrate, and a control treatment where no fine sediment was applied. We found that G. pulex moved into the subsurface gravel sediments in response to drying, but their ability to remain submerged during water level reduction was impeded by fine sediment deposition. In particular deposition of the coarser sand fraction clogged the sediment surface, limiting vertical movements. Our results highlight the potential effect of sedimentation on G. pulex resistance to drying events in streams
Performance of CMS muon reconstruction in pp collision events at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV
The performance of muon reconstruction, identification, and triggering in CMS
has been studied using 40 inverse picobarns of data collected in pp collisions
at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV at the LHC in 2010. A few benchmark sets of selection
criteria covering a wide range of physics analysis needs have been examined.
For all considered selections, the efficiency to reconstruct and identify a
muon with a transverse momentum pT larger than a few GeV is above 95% over the
whole region of pseudorapidity covered by the CMS muon system, abs(eta) < 2.4,
while the probability to misidentify a hadron as a muon is well below 1%. The
efficiency to trigger on single muons with pT above a few GeV is higher than
90% over the full eta range, and typically substantially better. The overall
momentum scale is measured to a precision of 0.2% with muons from Z decays. The
transverse momentum resolution varies from 1% to 6% depending on pseudorapidity
for muons with pT below 100 GeV and, using cosmic rays, it is shown to be
better than 10% in the central region up to pT = 1 TeV. Observed distributions
of all quantities are well reproduced by the Monte Carlo simulation.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO
Performance of CMS muon reconstruction in pp collision events at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV
The performance of muon reconstruction, identification, and triggering in CMS
has been studied using 40 inverse picobarns of data collected in pp collisions
at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV at the LHC in 2010. A few benchmark sets of selection
criteria covering a wide range of physics analysis needs have been examined.
For all considered selections, the efficiency to reconstruct and identify a
muon with a transverse momentum pT larger than a few GeV is above 95% over the
whole region of pseudorapidity covered by the CMS muon system, abs(eta) < 2.4,
while the probability to misidentify a hadron as a muon is well below 1%. The
efficiency to trigger on single muons with pT above a few GeV is higher than
90% over the full eta range, and typically substantially better. The overall
momentum scale is measured to a precision of 0.2% with muons from Z decays. The
transverse momentum resolution varies from 1% to 6% depending on pseudorapidity
for muons with pT below 100 GeV and, using cosmic rays, it is shown to be
better than 10% in the central region up to pT = 1 TeV. Observed distributions
of all quantities are well reproduced by the Monte Carlo simulation.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO
X-ray emission from the Sombrero galaxy: discrete sources
We present a study of discrete X-ray sources in and around the
bulge-dominated, massive Sa galaxy, Sombrero (M104), based on new and archival
Chandra observations with a total exposure of ~200 ks. With a detection limit
of L_X = 1E37 erg/s and a field of view covering a galactocentric radius of ~30
kpc (11.5 arcminute), 383 sources are detected. Cross-correlation with Spitler
et al.'s catalogue of Sombrero globular clusters (GCs) identified from HST/ACS
observations reveals 41 X-rays sources in GCs, presumably low-mass X-ray
binaries (LMXBs). We quantify the differential luminosity functions (LFs) for
both the detected GC and field LMXBs, whose power-low indices (~1.1 for the
GC-LF and ~1.6 for field-LF) are consistent with previous studies for
elliptical galaxies. With precise sky positions of the GCs without a detected
X-ray source, we further quantify, through a fluctuation analysis, the GC LF at
fainter luminosities down to 1E35 erg/s. The derived index rules out a
faint-end slope flatter than 1.1 at a 2 sigma significance, contrary to recent
findings in several elliptical galaxies and the bulge of M31. On the other
hand, the 2-6 keV unresolved emission places a tight constraint on the field
LF, implying a flattened index of ~1.0 below 1E37 erg/s. We also detect 101
sources in the halo of Sombrero. The presence of these sources cannot be
interpreted as galactic LMXBs whose spatial distribution empirically follows
the starlight. Their number is also higher than the expected number of cosmic
AGNs (52+/-11 [1 sigma]) whose surface density is constrained by deep X-ray
surveys. We suggest that either the cosmic X-ray background is unusually high
in the direction of Sombrero, or a distinct population of X-ray sources is
present in the halo of Sombrero.Comment: 11 figures, 5 tables, ApJ in pres
Compressed representation of a partially defined integer function over multiple arguments
In OLAP (OnLine Analitical Processing) data are analysed in an n-dimensional cube. The cube may be represented as a partially defined function over n arguments. Considering that often the function is not defined everywhere, we ask: is there a known way of representing the function or the points in which it is defined, in a more compact manner than the trivial one
Performance of the CMS Cathode Strip Chambers with Cosmic Rays
The Cathode Strip Chambers (CSCs) constitute the primary muon tracking device
in the CMS endcaps. Their performance has been evaluated using data taken
during a cosmic ray run in fall 2008. Measured noise levels are low, with the
number of noisy channels well below 1%. Coordinate resolution was measured for
all types of chambers, and fall in the range 47 microns to 243 microns. The
efficiencies for local charged track triggers, for hit and for segments
reconstruction were measured, and are above 99%. The timing resolution per
layer is approximately 5 ns
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