Application of a stochastic weather generator to assess climate change impacts in a semi-arid climate: The Upper Indus Basin

Assessing local climate change impacts requires downscaling from Global Climate Model simulations. Here, a stochastic rainfall model (RainSim) combined with a rainfall conditioned weather generator (CRU WG) have been successfully applied in a semi-arid mountain climate, for part of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), for point stations at a daily time-step to explore climate change impacts. Validation of the simulated time-series against observations (1961–1990) demonstrated the models’ skill in reproducing climatological means of core variables with monthly RMSE of <2.0 mm for precipitation and ⩽0.4 °C for mean temperature and daily temperature range. This level of performance is impressive given complexity of climate processes operating in this mountainous context at the boundary between monsoonal and mid-latitude (westerly) weather systems. Of equal importance the model captures well the observed interannual variability as quantified by the first and last decile of 30-year climatic periods. Differences between a control (1961–1990) and future (2071–2100) regional climate model (RCM) time-slice experiment were then used to provide change factors which could be applied within the rainfall and weather models to produce perturbed ‘future’ weather time-series. These project year-round increases in precipitation (maximum seasonal mean change:+27%, annual mean change: +18%) with increased intensity in the wettest months (February, March, April) and year-round increases in mean temperature (annual mean +4.8 °C). Climatic constraints on the productivity of natural resource-dependent systems were also assessed using relevant indices from the European Climate Assessment (ECA) and indicate potential future risk to water resources and local agriculture. However, the uniformity of projected temperature increases is in stark contrast to recent seasonally asymmetrical trends in observations, so an alternative scenario of extrapolated trends was also explored. We conclude that interannual variability in climate will continue to have the dominant impact on water resources management whichever trajectory is followed. This demonstrates the need for sophisticated downscaling methods which can evaluate changes in variability and sequencing of events to explore climate change impacts in this region

First Measurement of Z/gamma* Production in Compton Scattering of Quasi-real Photons

We report the first observation of Z/gamma* production in Compton scattering of quasi-real photons. This is a subprocess of the reaction e+e- to e+e-Z/gamma*, where one of the final state electrons is undetected. Approximately 55 pb-1 of data collected in the year 1997 at an e+e- centre-of-mass energy of 183 GeV with the OPAL detector at LEP have been analysed. The Z/gamma* from Compton scattering has been detected in the hadronic decay channel. Within well defined kinematic bounds, we measure the product of cross-section and Z/gamma* branching ratio to hadrons to be (0.9+-0.3+-0.1) pb for events with a hadronic mass larger than 60 GeV, dominated by (e)eZ production. In the hadronic mass region between 5 GeV and 60 GeV, dominated by (e)egamma* production, this product is found to be (4.1+-1.6+-0.6) pb. Our results agree with the predictions of two Monte Carlo event generators, grc4f and PYTHIA.Comment: 18 pages, LaTeX, 5 eps figures included, submitted to Physics Letters

Search for Higgs Bosons in e+e- Collisions at 183 GeV

The data collected by the OPAL experiment at sqrts=183 GeV were used to search for Higgs bosons which are predicted by the Standard Model and various extensions, such as general models with two Higgs field doublets and the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM). The data correspond to an integrated luminosity of approximately 54pb-1. None of the searches for neutral and charged Higgs bosons have revealed an excess of events beyond the expected background. This negative outcome, in combination with similar results from searches at lower energies, leads to new limits for the Higgs boson masses and other model parameters. In particular, the 95% confidence level lower limit for the mass of the Standard Model Higgs boson is 88.3 GeV. Charged Higgs bosons can be excluded for masses up to 59.5 GeV. In the MSSM, mh > 70.5 GeV and mA > 72.0 GeV are obtained for tan{beta}>1, no and maximal scalar top mixing and soft SUSY-breaking masses of 1 TeV. The range 0.8 < tanb < 1.9 is excluded for minimal scalar top mixing and m{top} < 175 GeV. More general scans of the MSSM parameter space are also considered.Comment: 49 pages. LaTeX, including 33 eps figures, submitted to European Physical Journal

Single Spin Asymmetry ANA_N in Polarized Proton-Proton Elastic Scattering at s=200\sqrt{s}=200 GeV

We report a high precision measurement of the transverse single spin asymmetry $A_N$ at the center of mass energy $\sqrt{s}=200$ GeV in elastic proton-proton scattering by the STAR experiment at RHIC. The $A_N$ was measured in the four-momentum transfer squared $t$ range $0.003 \leqslant |t| \leqslant 0.035$ \GeVcSq, the region of a significant interference between the electromagnetic and hadronic scattering amplitudes. The measured values of $A_N$ and its $t$-dependence are consistent with a vanishing hadronic spin-flip amplitude, thus providing strong constraints on the ratio of the single spin-flip to the non-flip amplitudes. Since the hadronic amplitude is dominated by the Pomeron amplitude at this $\sqrt{s}$, we conclude that this measurement addresses the question about the presence of a hadronic spin flip due to the Pomeron exchange in polarized proton-proton elastic scattering.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figure

A Measurement of the Product Branching Ratio f(b->Lambda_b).BR(Lambda_b->Lambda X) in Z0 Decays

The product branching ratio, f(b->Lambda_b).BR(Lambda_b->Lambda X), where Lambda_b denotes any weakly-decaying b-baryon, has been measured using the OPAL detector at LEP. Lambda_b are selected by the presence of energetic Lambda particles in bottom events tagged by the presence of displaced secondary vertices. A fit to the momenta of the Lambda particles separates signal from B meson and fragmentation backgrounds. The measured product branching ratio is f(b->Lambda_b).BR(Lambda_b->Lambda X) = (2.67+-0.38(stat)+0.67-0.60(sys))% Combined with a previous OPAL measurement, one obtains f(b->Lambda_b).BR(Lambda_b->Lambda X) = (3.50+-0.32(stat)+-0.35(sys))%.Comment: 16 pages, LaTeX, 3 eps figs included, submitted to the European Physical Journal

High pTp_{T} non-photonic electron production in pp+pp collisions at s\sqrt{s} = 200 GeV

We present the measurement of non-photonic electron production at high transverse momentum ($p_T >$ 2.5 GeV/$c$) in $p$ + $p$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 200 GeV using data recorded during 2005 and 2008 by the STAR experiment at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). The measured cross-sections from the two runs are consistent with each other despite a large difference in photonic background levels due to different detector configurations. We compare the measured non-photonic electron cross-sections with previously published RHIC data and pQCD calculations. Using the relative contributions of B and D mesons to non-photonic electrons, we determine the integrated cross sections of electrons ($\frac{e^++e^-}{2}$) at 3 GeV/$c < p_T <~$10 GeV/$c$ from bottom and charm meson decays to be ${d\sigma_{(B\to e)+(B\to D \to e)} \over dy_e}|_{y_e=0}$ = 4.0$\pm0.5$({\rm stat.})$\pm1.1$({\rm syst.}) nb and ${d\sigma_{D\to e} \over dy_e}|_{y_e=0}$ = 6.2$\pm0.7$({\rm stat.})$\pm1.5$({\rm syst.}) nb, respectively.Comment: 17 pages, 17 figure

Measurement of the Michel Parameters in Leptonic Tau Decays

The Michel parameters of the leptonic tau decays are measured using the OPAL detector at LEP. The Michel parameters are extracted from the energy spectra of the charged decay leptons and from their energy-energy correlations. A new method involving a global likelihood fit of Monte Carlo generated events with complete detector simulation and background treatment has been applied to the data recorded at center-of-mass energies close to sqrt(s) = M(Z) corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 155 pb-1 during the years 1990 to 1995. If e-mu universality is assumed and inferring the tau polarization from neutral current data, the measured Michel parameters are extracted. Limits on non-standard coupling constants and on the masses of new gauge bosons are obtained. The results are in agreement with the V-A prediction of the Standard Model.Comment: 32 pages, LaTeX, 9 eps figures included, submitted to the European Physical Journal

Measurement of the Bottom contribution to non-photonic electron production in p+pp+p collisions at s\sqrt{s} =200 GeV

The contribution of $B$ meson decays to non-photonic electrons, which are mainly produced by the semi-leptonic decays of heavy flavor mesons, in $p+p$ collisions at $\sqrt{s} =$ 200 GeV has been measured using azimuthal correlations between non-photonic electrons and hadrons. The extracted $B$ decay contribution is approximately 50% at a transverse momentum of $p_{T} \geq 5$ GeV/$c$. These measurements constrain the nuclear modification factor for electrons from $B$ and $D$ meson decays. The result indicates that $B$ meson production in heavy ion collisions is also suppressed at high $p_{T}$.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, accepted by PR

Frequency and Prognostic Impact of ALK Amplifications and Mutations in the European Neuroblastoma Study Group (SIOPEN) High-Risk Neuroblastoma Trial (HR-NBL1).

In neuroblastoma (NB), the ALK receptor tyrosine kinase can be constitutively activated through activating point mutations or genomic amplification. We studied ALK genetic alterations in high-risk (HR) patients on the HR-NBL1/SIOPEN trial to determine their frequency, correlation with clinical parameters, and prognostic impact. Diagnostic tumor samples were available from 1,092 HR-NBL1/SIOPEN patients to determine ALK amplification status (n = 330), ALK mutational profile (n = 191), or both (n = 571). Genomic ALK amplification (ALKa) was detected in 4.5% of cases (41 out of 901), all except one with MYCN amplification (MNA). ALKa was associated with a significantly poorer overall survival (OS) (5-year OS: ALKa [n = 41] 28% [95% CI, 15 to 42]; no-ALKa [n = 860] 51% [95% CI, 47 to 54], [P &lt; .001]), particularly in cases with metastatic disease. ALK mutations (ALKm) were detected at a clonal level (&gt; 20% mutated allele fraction) in 10% of cases (76 out of 762) and at a subclonal level (mutated allele fraction 0.1%-20%) in 3.9% of patients (30 out of 762), with a strong correlation between the presence of ALKm and MNA (P &lt; .001). Among 571 cases with known ALKa and ALKm status, a statistically significant difference in OS was observed between cases with ALKa or clonal ALKm versus subclonal ALKm or no ALK alterations (5-year OS: ALKa [n = 19], 26% [95% CI, 10 to 47], clonal ALKm [n = 65] 33% [95% CI, 21 to 44], subclonal ALKm (n = 22) 48% [95% CI, 26 to 67], and no alteration [n = 465], 51% [95% CI, 46 to 55], respectively; P = .001). Importantly, in a multivariate model, involvement of more than one metastatic compartment (hazard ratio [HR], 2.87; P &lt; .001), ALKa (HR, 2.38; P = .004), and clonal ALKm (HR, 1.77; P = .001) were independent predictors of poor outcome. Genetic alterations of ALK (clonal mutations and amplifications) in HR-NB are independent predictors of poorer survival. These data provide a rationale for integration of ALK inhibitors in upfront treatment of HR-NB with ALK alterations

Search for a W' boson decaying to a bottom quark and a top quark in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

Results are presented from a search for a W' boson using a dataset corresponding to 5.0 inverse femtobarns of integrated luminosity collected during 2011 by the CMS experiment at the LHC in pp collisions at sqrt(s)=7 TeV. The W' boson is modeled as a heavy W boson, but different scenarios for the couplings to fermions are considered, involving both left-handed and right-handed chiral projections of the fermions, as well as an arbitrary mixture of the two. The search is performed in the decay channel W' to t b, leading to a final state signature with a single lepton (e, mu), missing transverse energy, and jets, at least one of which is tagged as a b-jet. A W' boson that couples to fermions with the same coupling constant as the W, but to the right-handed rather than left-handed chiral projections, is excluded for masses below 1.85 TeV at the 95% confidence level. For the first time using LHC data, constraints on the W' gauge coupling for a set of left- and right-handed coupling combinations have been placed. These results represent a significant improvement over previously published limits.Comment: Submitted to Physics Letters B. Replaced with version publishe