Quantifying the impact of model inaccuracy in climate change impact assessment studies using an agro-hydrological model

Numerical simulation models are frequently applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrology and agriculture. A common hypothesis is that unavoidable model errors are reflected in the reference situation as well as in the climate change situation so that by comparing reference to scenario model errors will level out. For a polder in The Netherlands an innovative procedure has been introduced, referred to as the Model-Scenario-Ratio (MSR), to express model inaccuracy on climate change impact assessment studies based on simulation models comparing a reference situation to a climate change situation. The SWAP (Soil Water Atmosphere Plant) model was used for the case study and the reference situation was compared to two climate change scenarios. MSR values close to 1, indicating that impact assessment is mainly a function of the scenario itself rather than of the quality of the model, were found for most indicators evaluated. A climate change scenario with enhanced drought conditions and indicators based on threshold values showed lower MSR values, indicating that model accuracy is an important component of the climate change impact assessment. It was concluded that the MSR approach can be applied easily and will lead to more robust impact assessment analyses

Hvor grønt er det grønne skiftet? : bioøkonomiens potensielle effekt på økosystemtjeneste i nordiske nedbørfelt

In light of the increasing pressures from human activities on ecosystems and the global climate, the Nordic countries have decided that a green shift is necessary to ensure the future wellbeing of society. The transition to a bioeconomy is defined by a shift from fossil-based goods and energy to renewable, bio-based ones. This implies that resource extraction from ecosystems, which generate the biological resources for a bioeconomy, needs to increase. At the same time, we benefit from ecosystems in a wide variety of ways, often quantified as ecosystem services, ranging from the capacity to produce food to the regulation of water quality and possibilities for recreation. How a green shift would impact the value of ecosystem services generated in Nordic catchments is unknown, and this thesis aims to address this knowledge gap, based on three papers. The study subjects were six Nordic catchments, in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. The first paper presents a study on the relationship between landscape attributes and preference for recreation, using a discrete choice experiment. The results showed that, on average, respondents in the catchments prefer a more balanced mix between agriculture and forestry, neither more intensive nor extensive land management, an increase in water clarity, nature reserve areas and local employment from agriculture, forestry and fishing, and a decrease in flood frequency. However, the results varied among catchments as well as among different types of respondents. The second paper presents an estimation of the current total societal value of ecosystem services generated in the six catchments and an analysis of its variability. Average total value estimates ranged from roughly €400 ha-1 year-1 in the Finnish Simojoki catchment, to €7,000 ha-1 year-1 in the Norwegian Orrevassdraget catchment. Most of the value was generated by active nature appreciation, such as recreation, but there was large spatial variability among and within catchments. Other major ecosystem services were the supporting environment for agriculture, forestry and carbon sequestration. Soil type, slope, landscape diversity, population density and access to water all showed significant correlations to ecosystem services values. The third paper presents an analysis of the effects of transitioning to a bioeconomy on the value of ecosystem services. It applied five bioeconomy scenarios to the framework developed in Paper II, and for each assessed its effects on land use change, sociogeographic change and subsequently on the ecosystem services generated in each catchment. It found that a developed bioeconomy is likely to increase the value of ecosystem services as a whole, with the sustainability-focused scenario and the scenario aimed at maximising economic output generating most benefits. However, the effects vary among catchments, as well as among stakeholder groups benefiting from ecosystem services. This suggests that bioeconomy policy will not only affect total societal value, but also the distribution of value within society.I lys av det økende presset fra menneskelig aktivitet på det globale klimaet og klodens økosystemer, har de nordiske landene blitt enige om nødvendigheten av et grønt skifte for å sikte fremtidens samfunn. Overgangen til en bærekraftig bioøkonomi defineres av et skifte fra produksjon av varer og energi basert på fossile ressurser, til fornybare, biobaserte alternativer. Dette antyder at vi må øke uttaket av økosystemenes biologiske ressurser. Samtidig drar vi nytte av disse økosystemene på andre måter, ofte kvantifisert som økosystemtjenester. Disse strekker seg gjennom alt fra dets kapasitet til å produsere mat, regulere vannkvalitet og dets muliggjøring av ulike former for rekreasjon. Det er ukjent på hvilken måte det grønne skiftet vil påvirke de nordiske områders økosystemtjenester. Denne avhandling søker å gi en bedre forståelse av nettopp dette gjennom tre forskningsartikler. Avhandlingen undersøker seks nordiske nedbørfelt, i Danmark, Finland, Norge og Sverige. Den første artikkelen er en studie i sammenhengen mellom landskapets attributter og menneskers preferanser når de velger rekreasjonsområde. Forskningsmaterialet er basert på et diskret valgekspriment. Resultatene viser at respondenter i gjennomsnitt foretrekker en balansert blanding av jordbruk og skog, verken mer eller mindre intensiv landforvaltning, økt vannkvalitet, naturreservater og lokale arbeidsplasser i landbruket, skogbruk og fiske, og et ønske om mindre forekomst av oversvømmelse i vassdrag. Resultatene viser også noe variasjon mellom de ulike områdene, og mellom ulike typer respondenter. Den andre forskningsartikkelen presenterer et estimat av økosystemtjenestenes totale samfunnsverdi av i dag i de seks områdene, samt en analyse av dets variasjoner. Gjennomsnittsestimater av totalverdien strekker seg fra omtrent €400 ha-1 year-1 i det finske Simojoki, til €7,000 ha-1 year-1 i det norske Orrevassdraget. Mesteparten av verdien kommer fra aktiv verdsettelse av naturen i form av eksempelvis rekreasjon, men funnene viser stor variabilitet mellom og innad i områdene. Andre store økosystemtjenester er støtteområdene for landbruksvirksomhet, skogbruk og karbonbinding. Jordsmonnstype, skråninger, landskapsvariasjon, befolkningstetthet og tilgang på vann, viser alle signifikant korrelasjon til økosystemtjenestenes verdi. Den tredje artikkelen presenterer en analyse av potensielle effekter det grønne skiftet kan ha på verdien av økosystemtjenestene. Det er presentert fem ulike bioøkonomiske senarioer til rammeverket utviklet i artikkel II. Hver av disse senarioene er analysert for å finne hvilke endringer de villede til i henholdsvis landbruksendringer, sosio-geografiske endringer og økosystemtjenestene undersøkte nedbørfelt tilbyr i dag. Analysen finner at en fremskreden bioøkonomi med høy sannsynlighet vil øke verdien av økosystemtjenestene i sin helhet. Det er det bærekraftsfokuserte senarioet, og senarioet fokusert på å maksimere økonomisk produksjon som gir størst verdiøkning. Likevel er det også for disse senarioene stor variasjon mellom de ulike områdene, så vel som mellom ulike interessegrupper som på ulikt vis drar nytte av økosystemtjenestene. Dette antyder at bioøkonomisk politikk ikke bare vil påvirke den totale sosiale verdien av nedbørfelt, men også fordelingen av verdier innad i samfunnet

To speak of populist radical right parties as a ‘corrective to democracy’ is—in terms of turnout—a misunderstanding

In America a right-wing populist has sparked debate about the state of American democracy, while European countries have increasing experience of populist radical right parties. The presence and popularity of these parties raises significant questions about their consequences for democracy, democratic legitimacy, and political participation. In a recent study, Tim Immerzeel and Mark Pickup examined the role of these parties for a specific indicator of the quality of democracy: voter turnout. Based on an analysis of 33 European countries in the period 2002-2012, they show that the presence and popularity attracts some people to the polling booth, while demotivating others

Do populist parties really boost turnout at elections?

The presence and popularity of populist parties – right-wing in the US, radical right in the EU – raises significant questions about their consequences for democracy, democratic legitimacy, and political participation. Tim Immerzeel and Mark Pickup examine the role of these parties for a specific indicator of the quality of democracy: voter turnout. Based on an analysis of 33 European countries in the period 2002-2012, they show that the presence and popularity attracts some people to the polling booth, while demotivating others

Causes and consequences of the rise of populist radical right parties and movements in Europe

This article reviews three strands in the scholarship on the populist radical right (PRR). It covers both political parties and extra-parliamentary mobilization in contemporary European democracies. After definitional issues and case selection, the authors first discuss demand-side approaches to the fortunes of the PRR. Subsequently, supply-side approaches are assessed, namely political opportunity explanations and internal supply-side factors, referring to leadership, organization and ideological positioning. Third, research on the consequences of the emergence and rise of these parties and movements is examined: do they constitute a corrective or a threat to democracy? The authors discuss the growing literature on the impact on established parties’ policies, the policies themselves, and citizens’ behaviour. The review concludes with future directions for theorizing and research

Арап элифбесинде нешир этильген къырымтатар грамматикаларнынъ тенъештирме талили

Статья посвящена сопоставительному анализу имени существительного и глагола в арабографических грамматиках крымскотатарского языка.Стаття присвячена порівняльному аналізу іменника і дієслова в арабографічних граматиках кримськотатарської мови.The article annotation is devoted to the comparative analysis of the noun and the verb in arabographis grammars of the Crimean Tatar language

Contrasting climate change impact on river flows from high altitude catchments in the Himalayan and Andes Mountains

Mountain ranges are world’s natural water towers and provide water resources for millions of people. Yet, their hydrological balance and possible future changes in river flow remain poorly understood because of high meteorological variability, physical inaccessibility and the complex interplay between climate, cryosphere and hydrological processes. Here we use a state-of-the art glacio-hydrological model informed by data from high altitude observations and CMIP5 climate change scenarios to quantify the climate change impact on water resources of two contrasting catchments vulnerable to changes in the cryosphere. The two study catchments are located in the Central Andes of Chile and in the Nepalese Himalaya in close vicinity of densely populated areas. Although both sites reveal a strong decrease in glacier area, they show a remarkably different hydrological response to projected climate change. In the Juncal catchment in Chile runoff is likely to sharply decrease in the future and the runoff seasonality is sensitive to projected climatic changes. In the Langtang catchment in Nepal, future water availability is on the rise for decades to come with limited shifts between seasons. Owing to the high spatio-temporal resolution of the simulations and process complexity included in the modelling the response times and the mechanisms underlying the variations in glacier area and river flow can be well constrained. The projections indicate that climate change adaptation in Central Chile should focus on dealing with a reduction in water availability, whereas in Nepal preparedness for flood extremes should be the policy priority

Climate change impact assessment as function of model inaccuracy

International audienceNumerical simulation models are frequently applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrology and agriculture. A common hypothesis is that unavoidable model errors are reflected in the reference situation as well as in the climate change situation so that by comparing reference to scenario model errors will level out. For a polder in The Netherlands an innovative procedure has been introduced, referred to as the Model-Scenario-Ratio (MSR), to express model inaccuracy on climate change impact assessment. MSR values close to 1, indicating that impact assessment is mainly a function of the scenario itself rather than of the quality of the model, were found for most indicators evaluated. More extreme climate change scenarios and indicators based on threshold values showed lower MSR values, indicating that model accuracy is an important component of the climate change impact assessment. It was concluded that the MSR approach can be applied easily and will lead to more robust impact assessment analyses