Timing of Colonization of Caries-Producing Bacteria: An Approach Based on Studying Monozygotic Twin Pairs

Findings are presented from a prospective cohort study of timing of primary tooth emergence and timing of oral colonization of Streptococcus mutans (S. mutans) in Australian twins. The paper focuses on differences in colonization timing in genetically identical monozygotic (MZ) twins. Timing of tooth emergence was based on parental report. Colonization timing of S. mutans were established by plating samples of plaque and saliva on selective media at 3 monthly intervals and assessing colony morphology. In 25% of individuals colonization occurred prior to emergence of the first tooth. A significant proportion of MZ pairs (21%) was discordant for colonization occurring before or after first tooth emergence, suggesting a role of environmental or epigenetic factors in timing of tooth emergence, colonization by S. mutans, or both. These findings and further application of the MZ co-twin model should assist in development of strategies to prevent or delay infection with S. mutans in children

Contrasting disease patterns in seropositive and seronegative neuromyelitis optica: A multicentre study of 175 patients

BACKGROUND: The diagnostic and pathophysiological relevance of antibodies to aquaporin-4 (AQP4-Ab) in patients with neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders (NMOSD) has been intensively studied. However, little is known so far about the clinical impact of AQP4-Ab seropositivity. OBJECTIVE: To analyse systematically the clinical and paraclinical features associated with NMO spectrum disorders in Caucasians in a stratified fashion according to the patients' AQP4-Ab serostatus. METHODS: Retrospective study of 175 Caucasian patients (AQP4-Ab positive in 78.3%). RESULTS: Seropositive patients were found to be predominantly female (p 1 myelitis attacks in the first year were identified as possible predictors of a worse outcome. CONCLUSION: This study provides an overview of the clinical and paraclinical features of NMOSD in Caucasians and demonstrates a number of distinct disease characteristics in seropositive and seronegative patients

The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background: The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Methods: Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. Results: After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45–85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p  90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. Conclusion: The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic

Generalized Robust Conjoint Estimation

We introduce methods from statistical learning theory to the field of conjoint analysis for preference modeling. We present a method for estimating preference models that can be highly nonlinear and robust to noise. Like recently developed polyhedral methods for conjoint analysis, our method is based on computationally efficient optimization techniques. We compare our method with standard logistic regression, hierarchical Bayes, and the polyhedral methods using standard, widely used simulation data. The experiments show that the proposed method handles noise significantly better than both logistic regression and the recent polyhedral methods and is never worse than the best method among the three mentioned above. It can also be used for estimating nonlinearities in preference models faster and better than all other methods. Finally, a simple extension for handling heterogeneity shows promising results relative to hierarchical Bayes. The proposed method can therefore be useful, for example, for analyzing large amounts of data that are noisy or for estimating interactions among product features.choice models, data mining, econometric models, hierarchical Bayes analysis, marketing tools, regression and other statistical techniques

Delivery of loaded MR1 monomer results in efficient ligand exchange to host MR1 and subsequent MR1T cell activation

Abstract MR1-restricted T cells have been implicated in microbial infections, sterile inflammation, wound healing and cancer. Similar to other antigen presentation molecules, evidence supports multiple, complementary MR1 antigen presentation pathways. To investigate ligand exchange pathways for MR1, we used MR1 monomers and tetramers loaded with 5-(2-oxopropylideneamino)-6-d-ribitylaminouracil (5-OP-RU) to deliver the antigen. Using MR1-deficient cells reconstituted with wild-type MR1 or MR1 molecules that cannot bind 5-OP-RU, we show that presentation of monomer-delivered 5-OP-RU is dependent on cellular MR1 and requires the transfer of ligand from the soluble molecule onto MR1 expressed by the antigen presenting cell. This mode of antigen delivery strengthens the evidence for post-ER ligand exchange pathways for MR1, which could represent an important avenue by which MR1 acquires antigens derived from endocytosed pathogens