Focus and social contagion of environmental organization advocacy on Twitter

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is freely available from Wiley / Society for Conservation Biology via the DOI in this record.  Agriculture, over-exploitation and urbanisation remain the major threats to biodiversity in the Anthropocene. The attention these threats garner among leading environmental NGOs (eNGOs) and the wider public is critical in fostering the political will necessary to reverse biodiversity declines worldwide. Here, I analyse the advocacy of leading eNGOs on Twitter, and show that it is dominated by the major threats of climate change and over-exploitation, and the minor threat of plastic pollution. The major threats of agriculture, urbanisation, invasions, and pollution are rarely addressed. Content relating to over-exploitation and plastic pollution is more socially contagious than other content. Increasing emotional negativity further increases social contagion, while increasing emotional positivity does not. Scientists, policymakers and eNGOs should consider how narrowly focused advocacy on platforms like Twitter will contribute to effective global biodiversity conservation. Article impact statement: Reversing global biodiversity declines requires focus on major threats, but leading environmental NGOs often focus on minor threats. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.Leverhulme Trus

Trophic cascades and the transient keystone concept

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this recordApex predator reintroductions are commonly motivated by the imperative to restore populations and wider ecosystem function by precipitating trophic cascades that release basal species. Yet evidence for the existence of such cascades is often equivocal, particularly where consumptive interactions between apex and intermediate predators are weak or absent. Here, using a tri-trophic skate-crab-bivalve study-system, we find that non-consumptive interactions between apex skate and intermediate crabs cascade down to consumptive interactions between crabs and bivalves, significantly reducing bivalve mortality. However, skate only functioned as keystone where crabs foraged for bivalves in the absence of mature bivalve reef: where reef was present, bivalve mortality was not significantly different in the presence or absence of skate. By facilitating the establishment of basal species which, in turn, diminish apex-intermediate effects, the skate's keystone function is subject to negative regulation. Thus, we propose that keystone functionality can be transient with respect to environmental context. Our findings have two central implications for apex predator reintroductions and basic ecology: (i) species hitherto not considered as keystone may have the capacity to act as such transiently, and; (ii) keystones are known to regulate ecosystems, but transience implies that ecosystems can regulate keystone function.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

Biomass encounter rates limit the size scaling of feeding interactions

This is the final version. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.The rate that consumers encounter resources in space necessarily limits the strength of feeding interactions that shape ecosystems. To explore the link between encounters and feeding, we first compiled the largest available dataset of interactions in the marine benthos by extracting data from published studies and generating new data. These data indicate that the size‐scaling of feeding interactions varies among consumer groups using different strategies (passive or active) to encounter different resource types (mobile or static), with filter feeders exhibiting the weakest feeding interactions. Next, we used these data to develop an agent‐based model of resource biomass encounter rates, underpinned by consumer encounter strategy and resource biomass density. Our model demonstrates that passive strategies for encountering small, dispersed resources limits biomass encounter rates, necessarily limiting the strength of feeding interactions. Our model is based on generalisable assumptions, providing a framework to assess encounter‐based drivers of consumption and coexistence across systems.Leverhulme Trus

FRAIR: an R package for fitting and comparing consumer functional responses

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley / British Ecological Society via the DOI in this record.1.Consumer‐resource interactions (i.e. the functional response) underpin decades of ecological advancements. However, selecting, fitting and comparing functional response models using appropriate methods remains a non‐trivial endeavour. 2.The R package frair provides tools for selecting and differentiating various forms of consumer functional response models, a consistent interface for fitting and visualising response curves, and a selection of statistically robust methods for comparing fitted parameters. 3.Using real data from crustacean predator‐prey systems, we demonstrate the utility of frair, highlighting best practice and common analytical mistakes.Pūnaha Hihiko Vision Mātauranga Capability.European Union INTERREG IVA Programme and Department of Environment, Northern Ireland (DOENI)Natural Environment Research Counci

On the context-dependent scaling of consumer feeding rates

This is the final version. Available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.The stability of consumer–resource systems can depend on the form of feeding interactions (i.e.functional responses). Size-based models predict interactions–and thus stability–based on con-sumer–resource size ratios. However, little is known about how interaction contexts (e.g. simpleor complex habitats) might alter scaling relationships. Addressing this, we experimentally mea-sured interactions between a large size range of aquatic predators (4–6400 mg over 1347 feedingtrials) and an invasive prey that transitions among habitats: from the water column (3D interac-tions) to simple and complex benthic substrates (2D interactions). Simple and complex substratesmediated successive reductions in capture rates–particularly around the unimodal optimum–and promoted prey population stability in model simulations. Many real consumer–resource sys-tems transition between 2D and 3D interactions, and along complexity gradients. Thus, Context-Dependent Scaling (CDS) of feeding interactions could represent an unrecognised aspect of foodwebs, and quantifying the extent of CDS might enhance predictive ecology

Sex‐skewed trophic impacts in ephemeral wetlands

Predation can have marked impacts on ecosystem structure, function, and stability. However, quantifications of biotic interactions frequently overlook demographic variabilities within populations, which can modulate interaction strengths, such as sex and reproductive status. Compositional population ratios between males and females, alongside reproductive status, are highly variable temporally in ephemeral aquatic systems, and may profoundly mediate levels of ecological impact and thus stability of trophic groups. In the present study, we apply functional responses (resource intake as a function of resource density) to quantify predatory impacts of adult males, non‐gravid females, and gravid females of the calanoid copepod Lovenula raynerae (Diaptomidae), an abundant ephemeral pond specialist, on larvae of the Culex pipiens (Culicidae) mosquito complex. We then develop a novel metric to forecast population‐level impacts across different population sex ratio scenarios. Lovenula raynerae demonstrated prey population destabilising Type II functional responses irrespective of sex and reproductive status, yet variable functional response magnitudes were found. While male and non‐gravid female copepods exhibited similar functional response maximum feeding rates, gravid female feeding rates were substantially higher, implying higher resource demands for progeny development. Ecological impacts of L. raynerae on lower trophic groups increased markedly where their abundances increased but, crucially, also as population sex ratios became more biased towards gravid female copepods. We demonstrate that population‐level impacts do not only correlate tightly with abundance but may be further modulated by reproductive status variations. Thus, the development of sex‐skewed ratios in favour of gravid females during the hydroperiod probably heightens ecological impacts on lower trophic groups. The implications of these results for prey population stability are discussed in the context of freshwater ecosystems

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Identification of regulatory variants associated with genetic susceptibility to meningococcal disease

Non-coding genetic variants play an important role in driving susceptibility to complex diseases but their characterization remains challenging. Here, we employed a novel approach to interrogate the genetic risk of such polymorphisms in a more systematic way by targeting specific regulatory regions relevant for the phenotype studied. We applied this method to meningococcal disease susceptibility, using the DNA binding pattern of RELA - a NF-kB subunit, master regulator of the response to infection - under bacterial stimuli in nasopharyngeal epithelial cells. We designed a custom panel to cover these RELA binding sites and used it for targeted sequencing in cases and controls. Variant calling and association analysis were performed followed by validation of candidate polymorphisms by genotyping in three independent cohorts. We identified two new polymorphisms, rs4823231 and rs11913168, showing signs of association with meningococcal disease susceptibility. In addition, using our genomic data as well as publicly available resources, we found evidences for these SNPs to have potential regulatory effects on ATXN10 and LIF genes respectively. The variants and related candidate genes are relevant for infectious diseases and may have important contribution for meningococcal disease pathology. Finally, we described a novel genetic association approach that could be applied to other phenotypes

Elective Cancer Surgery in COVID-19-Free Surgical Pathways During the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: An International, Multicenter, Comparative Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: As cancer surgery restarts after the first COVID-19 wave, health care providers urgently require data to determine where elective surgery is best performed. This study aimed to determine whether COVID-19-free surgical pathways were associated with lower postoperative pulmonary complication rates compared with hospitals with no defined pathway. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This international, multicenter cohort study included patients who underwent elective surgery for 10 solid cancer types without preoperative suspicion of SARS-CoV-2. Participating hospitals included patients from local emergence of SARS-CoV-2 until April 19, 2020. At the time of surgery, hospitals were defined as having a COVID-19-free surgical pathway (complete segregation of the operating theater, critical care, and inpatient ward areas) or no defined pathway (incomplete or no segregation, areas shared with patients with COVID-19). The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications (pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, unexpected ventilation). RESULTS: Of 9,171 patients from 447 hospitals in 55 countries, 2,481 were operated on in COVID-19-free surgical pathways. Patients who underwent surgery within COVID-19-free surgical pathways were younger with fewer comorbidities than those in hospitals with no defined pathway but with similar proportions of major surgery. After adjustment, pulmonary complication rates were lower with COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.2% v 4.9%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.86). This was consistent in sensitivity analyses for low-risk patients (American Society of Anesthesiologists grade 1/2), propensity score-matched models, and patients with negative SARS-CoV-2 preoperative tests. The postoperative SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was also lower in COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.1% v 3.6%; aOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.76). CONCLUSION: Within available resources, dedicated COVID-19-free surgical pathways should be established to provide safe elective cancer surgery during current and before future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

Elective cancer surgery in COVID-19-free surgical pathways during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: An international, multicenter, comparative cohort study

PURPOSE As cancer surgery restarts after the first COVID-19 wave, health care providers urgently require data to determine where elective surgery is best performed. This study aimed to determine whether COVID-19–free surgical pathways were associated with lower postoperative pulmonary complication rates compared with hospitals with no defined pathway. PATIENTS AND METHODS This international, multicenter cohort study included patients who underwent elective surgery for 10 solid cancer types without preoperative suspicion of SARS-CoV-2. Participating hospitals included patients from local emergence of SARS-CoV-2 until April 19, 2020. At the time of surgery, hospitals were defined as having a COVID-19–free surgical pathway (complete segregation of the operating theater, critical care, and inpatient ward areas) or no defined pathway (incomplete or no segregation, areas shared with patients with COVID-19). The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications (pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, unexpected ventilation). RESULTS Of 9,171 patients from 447 hospitals in 55 countries, 2,481 were operated on in COVID-19–free surgical pathways. Patients who underwent surgery within COVID-19–free surgical pathways were younger with fewer comorbidities than those in hospitals with no defined pathway but with similar proportions of major surgery. After adjustment, pulmonary complication rates were lower with COVID-19–free surgical pathways (2.2% v 4.9%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.86). This was consistent in sensitivity analyses for low-risk patients (American Society of Anesthesiologists grade 1/2), propensity score–matched models, and patients with negative SARS-CoV-2 preoperative tests. The postoperative SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was also lower in COVID-19–free surgical pathways (2.1% v 3.6%; aOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.76). CONCLUSION Within available resources, dedicated COVID-19–free surgical pathways should be established to provide safe elective cancer surgery during current and before future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks