Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Impacts of the Tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans on the Seasonal Cycle of the West African Monsoon

The current consensus is that drought has developed in the Sahel during the second half of the twentieth century as a result of remote effects of oceanic anomalies amplified by local land–atmosphere interactions. This paper focuses on the impacts of oceanic anomalies upon West African climate and specifically aims to identify those from SST anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Oceans during spring and summer seasons, when they were significant. Idealized sensitivity experiments are performed with four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The prescribed SST patterns used in the AGCMs are based on the leading mode of covariability between SST anomalies over the Pacific/Indian Oceans and summer rainfall over West Africa. The results show that such oceanic anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Ocean lead to a northward shift of an anomalous dry belt from the Gulf of Guinea to the Sahel as the season advances. In the Sahel, the magnitude of rainfall anomalies is comparable to that obtained by other authors using SST anomalies confined to the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean. The mechanism connecting the Pacific/Indian SST anomalies with West African rainfall has a strong seasonal cycle. In spring (May and June), anomalous subsidence develops over both the Maritime Continent and the equatorial Atlantic in response to the enhanced equatorial heating. Precipitation increases over continental West Africa in association with stronger zonal convergence of moisture. In addition, precipitation decreases over the Gulf of Guinea. During the monsoon peak (July and August), the SST anomalies move westward over the equatorial Pacific and the two regions where subsidence occurred earlier in the seasons merge over West Africa. The monsoon weakens and rainfall decreases over the Sahel, especially in August.Peer reviewe

Search for heavy resonances decaying to two Higgs bosons in final states containing four b quarks

A search is presented for narrow heavy resonances X decaying into pairs of Higgs bosons (H) in proton-proton collisions collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC at root s = 8 TeV. The data correspond to an integrated luminosity of 19.7 fb(-1). The search considers HH resonances with masses between 1 and 3 TeV, having final states of two b quark pairs. Each Higgs boson is produced with large momentum, and the hadronization products of the pair of b quarks can usually be reconstructed as single large jets. The background from multijet and t (t) over bar events is significantly reduced by applying requirements related to the flavor of the jet, its mass, and its substructure. The signal would be identified as a peak on top of the dijet invariant mass spectrum of the remaining background events. No evidence is observed for such a signal. Upper limits obtained at 95 confidence level for the product of the production cross section and branching fraction sigma(gg -> X) B(X -> HH -> b (b) over barb (b) over bar) range from 10 to 1.5 fb for the mass of X from 1.15 to 2.0 TeV, significantly extending previous searches. For a warped extra dimension theory with amass scale Lambda(R) = 1 TeV, the data exclude radion scalar masses between 1.15 and 1.55 TeV

Search for Physics beyond the Standard Model in Events with Overlapping Photons and Jets

Results are reported from a search for new particles that decay into a photon and two gluons, in events with jets. Novel jet substructure techniques are developed that allow photons to be identified in an environment densely populated with hadrons. The analyzed proton-proton collision data were collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC, in 2016 at root s = 13 TeV, and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb(-1). The spectra of total transverse hadronic energy of candidate events are examined for deviations from the standard model predictions. No statistically significant excess is observed over the expected background. The first cross section limits on new physics processes resulting in such events are set. The results are interpreted as upper limits on the rate of gluino pair production, utilizing a simplified stealth supersymmetry model. The excluded gluino masses extend up to 1.7 TeV, for a neutralino mass of 200 GeV and exceed previous mass constraints set by analyses targeting events with isolated photons.Peer reviewe

Search for supersymmetry in events with one lepton and multiple jets in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

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Measurement of the Jet Mass Distribution and Top Quark Mass in Hadronic Decays of Boosted Top Quarks in pp Collisions at root s=13 TeV

A measurement is reported of the jet mass distribution in hadronic decays of boosted top quarks produced in pp collisions at root s = 13 TeV. The data were collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb(-1). The measurement is performed in the lepton + jets channel of t (t) over bar events, where the lepton is an electron or muon. The products of the hadronic top quark decay t -> bW -> bq (q) over bar' are reconstructed as a single jet with transverse momentum larger than 400 GeV. The t (t) over bar cross section as a function of the jet mass is unfolded at the particle level and used to extract a value of the top quark mass of 172.6 +/- 2.5 GeV. A novel jet reconstruction technique is used for the first time at the LHC, which improves the precision by a factor of 3 relative to an earlier measurement. This highlights the potential of measurements using boosted top quarks, where the new technique will enable future precision measurements.Peer reviewe

Measurement of the top quark mass using charged particles in pp collisions at root s=8 TeV

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Calibration of the CMS hadron calorimeters using proton-proton collision data at root s=13 TeV

Methods are presented for calibrating the hadron calorimeter system of theCMSetector at the LHC. The hadron calorimeters of the CMS experiment are sampling calorimeters of brass and scintillator, and are in the form of one central detector and two endcaps. These calorimeters cover pseudorapidities vertical bar eta vertical bar ee data. The energy scale of the outer calorimeters has been determined with test beam data and is confirmed through data with high transverse momentum jets. In this paper, we present the details of the calibration methods and accuracy.Peer reviewe

Search for top squark pair production in a final state with two tau leptons in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

A search for pair production of the supersymmetric partner of the top quark, the top squark, in proton-proton collision events at s = 13 TeV is presented in a final state containing hadronically decaying tau leptons and large missing transverse momentum. This final state is highly sensitive to high-tan beta or higgsino-like scenarios in which decays of electroweak gauginos to tau leptons are dominant. The search uses a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 77.2 fb(-1), which was recorded with the CMS detector during 2016 and 2017. No significant excess is observed with respect to the background prediction. Exclusion limits at 95% confidence level are presented in the top squark and lightest neutralino mass plane within the framework of simplified models, in which top squark masses up to 1100 GeV are excluded for a nearly massless neutralino.Peer reviewe

Search for charged Higgs bosons decaying into a top and a bottom quark in the all-jet final state of pp collisions at root s=13 TeV

A search for charged Higgs bosons (H-+/-) decaying into a top and a bottom quark in the all-jet final state is presented. The analysis uses LHC proton-proton collision data recorded with the CMS detector in 2016 at root s = 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb(-1). No significant excess is observed above the expected background. Model-independent upper limits at 95% confidence level are set on the product of the H-+/- production cross section and branching fraction in two scenarios. For production in association with a top quark, limits of 21.3 to 0.007 pb are obtained for H-+/- masses in the range of 0.2 to 3 TeV. Combining this with a search in leptonic final states results in improved limits of 9.25 to 0.005 pb. The complementary s-channel production of an H-+/- is investigated in the mass range of 0.8 to 3 TeV and the corresponding upper limits are 4.5 to 0.023 pb. These results are interpreted using different minimal supersymmetric extensions of the standard model.Peer reviewe