Bayesian Best-Arm Identification for Selecting Influenza Mitigation Strategies

Pandemic influenza has the epidemic potential to kill millions of people. While various preventive measures exist (i.a., vaccination and school closures), deciding on strategies that lead to their most effective and efficient use remains challenging. To this end, individual-based epidemiological models are essential to assist decision makers in determining the best strategy to curb epidemic spread. However, individual-based models are computationally intensive and it is therefore pivotal to identify the optimal strategy using a minimal amount of model evaluations. Additionally, as epidemiological modeling experiments need to be planned, a computational budget needs to be specified a priori. Consequently, we present a new sampling technique to optimize the evaluation of preventive strategies using fixed budget best-arm identification algorithms. We use epidemiological modeling theory to derive knowledge about the reward distribution which we exploit using Bayesian best-arm identification algorithms (i.e., Top-two Thompson sampling and BayesGap). We evaluate these algorithms in a realistic experimental setting and demonstrate that it is possible to identify the optimal strategy using only a limited number of model evaluations, i.e., 2-to-3 times faster compared to the uniform sampling method, the predominant technique used for epidemiological decision making in the literature. Finally, we contribute and evaluate a statistic for Top-two Thompson sampling to inform the decision makers about the confidence of an arm recommendation

Simultaneous Extraction of the Fermi constant and PMNS matrix elements in the presence of a fourth generation

Several recent studies performed on constraints of a fourth generation of quarks and leptons suffer from the ad-hoc assumption that 3 x 3 unitarity holds for the first three generations in the neutrino sector. Only under this assumption one is able to determine the Fermi constant G_F from the muon lifetime measurement with the claimed precision of G_F = 1.16637 (1) x 10^-5 GeV^-2. We study how well G_F can be extracted within the framework of four generations from leptonic and radiative mu and tau decays, as well as from K_l3 decays and leptonic decays of charged pions, and we discuss the role of lepton universality tests in this context. We emphasize that constraints on a fourth generation from quark and lepton flavour observables and from electroweak precision observables can only be obtained in a consistent way if these three sectors are considered simultaneously. In the combined fit to leptonic and radiative mu and tau decays, K_l3 decays and leptonic decays of charged pions we find a p-value of 2.6% for the fourth generation matrix element |U_{e 4}|=0 of the neutrino mixing matrix.Comment: 19 pages, 3 figures with 16 subfigures, references and text added refering to earlier related work, figures and text in discussion section added, results and conclusions unchange

Low-cost liquid medium for in vitro cultivation of Leishmania parasites in low-income countries

Background: Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) induced by Leishmania aethiopica has two clinical manifestations: ulcerating, self-healing CL and non-ulcerating, non-healing CL. The grossly disfiguring multiple nodules on the face and exterior surface of limbs during non-ulcerative CL are sometimes misdiagnosed as other skin infections. Thus the need for definitive and prompt laboratory diagnosis will be required. Identifying Leishmania parasite by culture method is considered as a definitive method for initiation of treatment and as an effective component of leishmaniasis control methods. Recently the involvement of Fas (CD95) and Tumor Necrosis Factor (TNF) Related Apoptosis Inducing Ligand (TRAIL) induced apoptotic pathways were proposed to be involved in tissue destruction and ulceration during L. major induced CL. Aims: 1) to develop an alternative culture media that could minimize the cost for culturing Leishmania from patient lesions. 2) to investigate if the expression of FasL and TRAIL differs in ulcerating and non- ulcerative CL. Methods: GALF-1 media was formulated in our lab and compared to RPMI 1640 medium and conventional Locke s semi solid media (LSSM) which is one of the modifications of Novy-MacNeal-Nicolle (NNN) culture media. Amastigotes transformation, cryopreservation, recovery of parasites, cost and mass cultivation were analysed. Expression of Fas ligand (FasL), TRAIL and apoptosis were assessed by immunohistology in human skin biopsies from L. aethiopica induced ulcerative or non-ulcerative CL. FasL and TRAIL blocking experiments were performed in a murine model of CL. Results and discussion: GALF-1 is cheap and its ingredients available in a low income country such as Ethiopia. GALF-1 was able to transform amastigotes from Ethiopian patients samples and could be used to cultivate promastigotes in large quantities. Cost analysis showed 80% to 95 % decreased costs as compared to conventional media. Promastigotes cultured with GALF-1 could be cryopreserved in liquid nitrogen with comparable re-culture potential to conventional media. Affordability of diagnostic assays is a key issue for resource poor countries and the possibility to cut the cost of the efficient culture method for diagnosis through the use of inexpensive local formulated reagents could improve the diagnosis of leishmaniasis in low income endemic countries. More FasL expressing cells were detected in dermis of ulcerative CL as compared to non-ulcerative CL and controls. TRAIL expression was higher in ulcerative CL as compared to non-ulcerative CL and controls in both epidermis and dermis. Increased dermal expression of FasL and TRAIL was associated with ulcer formation during CL. This correlated with an inhibition of the ulcerative process in a murine CL model during FasL and TRAIL neutralisation.The mechanisms of the involvement of FasL and TRAIL in ulceration was not elucidated and putative reason(s) for the difference in dysregulation of apoptosis are discussed

A multivariate analysis of serum nutrient levels and lung function

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is mounting evidence that estimates of intakes of a range of dietary nutrients are related to both lung function level and rate of decline, but far less evidence on the relation between lung function and objective measures of serum levels of individual nutrients. The aim of this study was to conduct a comprehensive examination of the independent associations of a wide range of serum markers of nutritional status with lung function, measured as the one-second forced expiratory volume (FEV₁).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, a US population-based cross-sectional study, we investigated the relation between 21 serum markers of potentially relevant nutrients and FEV₁, with adjustment for potential confounding factors. Systematic approaches were used to guide the analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In a mutually adjusted model, higher serum levels of antioxidant vitamins (vitamin A, beta-cryptoxanthin, vitamin C, vitamin E), selenium, normalized calcium, chloride, and iron were independently associated with higher levels of FEV₁. Higher concentrations of potassium and sodium were associated with lower FEV₁.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Maintaining higher serum concentrations of dietary antioxidant vitamins and selenium is potentially beneficial to lung health. In addition other novel associations found in this study merit further investigation.</p

Intra-Individual Variability in Alzheimer's Disease and Cognitive Aging: Definitions, Context, and Effect Sizes

To explore different definitions of intra-individual variability (IIV) to summarize performance on commonly utilized cognitive tests (Mini Mental State Exam; Clock Drawing Test); compare them and their potential to differentiate clinically-defined populations; and to examine their utility in predicting clinical change in individuals from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI).) were computed for each of these definitions in 500 simulated replicates using scores on the Mini Mental State Exam and Clock Drawing Test. IIV was computed based on test items separately (‘within test’ IIV) and the two tests together (‘across test’ IIV). The best performing definition was then used to compute IIV for a third test, the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive, and the simulations and effect sizes were again computed. All effect size estimates based on simulated data were compared to those computed based on the total scores in the observed data. Association between total score and IIV summaries of the tests and the Clinician's Dementia Rating were estimated to test the utility of IIV in predicting clinically meaningful changes in the cohorts over 12- and 24-month intervals.ES estimates differed substantially depending on the definition of IIV and the test(s) on which IIV was based. IIV (coefficient of variation) summaries of MMSE and Clock-Drawing performed similarly to their total scores, the ADAS total performed better than its IIV summary.IIV can be computed within (items) or across (totals) items on commonly-utilized cognitive tests, and may provide a useful additional summary measure of neuropsychological test performance

The Effect of Testing on the Retention of Coherent and Incoherent Text Material

Research has shown that testing during learning can enhance the long-term retention of text material. In two experiments, we investigated the testing effect with a fill-in-the-blank test on the retention of text material. In Experiment 1, using a coherent text, we found no retention benefit of testing compared to a restudy (control) condition. In Experiment 2, text coherence was disrupted by scrambling the order of the sentences from the text. The material was subsequently presented as a list of facts as opposed to connected discourse. For the incoherent version of the text, testing slowed down the rate of forgetting compared to a restudy (control) condition. The results suggest that the connectedness of materials can play an important role in determining the magnitude of testing benefits for long-term retention. Testing with a completion test seems most beneficial for unconnected materials and less so for highly structured materials

Jet energy measurement with the ATLAS detector in proton-proton collisions at root s=7 TeV

The jet energy scale and its systematic uncertainty are determined for jets measured with the ATLAS detector at the LHC in proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 7TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 38 pb-1. Jets are reconstructed with the anti-kt algorithm with distance parameters R=0. 4 or R=0. 6. Jet energy and angle corrections are determined from Monte Carlo simulations to calibrate jets with transverse momenta pT≥20 GeV and pseudorapidities {pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy systematic uncertainty is estimated using the single isolated hadron response measured in situ and in test-beams, exploiting the transverse momentum balance between central and forward jets in events with dijet topologies and studying systematic variations in Monte Carlo simulations. The jet energy uncertainty is less than 2. 5 % in the central calorimeter region ({pipe}η{pipe}<0. 8) for jets with 60≤pT<800 GeV, and is maximally 14 % for pT<30 GeV in the most forward region 3. 2≤{pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy is validated for jet transverse momenta up to 1 TeV to the level of a few percent using several in situ techniques by comparing a well-known reference such as the recoiling photon pT, the sum of the transverse momenta of tracks associated to the jet, or a system of low-pT jets recoiling against a high-pT jet. More sophisticated jet calibration schemes are presented based on calorimeter cell energy density weighting or hadronic properties of jets, aiming for an improved jet energy resolution and a reduced flavour dependence of the jet response. The systematic uncertainty of the jet energy determined from a combination of in situ techniques is consistent with the one derived from single hadron response measurements over a wide kinematic range. The nominal corrections and uncertainties are derived for isolated jets in an inclusive sample of high-pT jets. Special cases such as event topologies with close-by jets, or selections of samples with an enhanced content of jets originating from light quarks, heavy quarks or gluons are also discussed and the corresponding uncertainties are determined. © 2013 CERN for the benefit of the ATLAS collaboration

Measurement of the inclusive and dijet cross-sections of b-jets in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The inclusive and dijet production cross-sections have been measured for jets containing b-hadrons (b-jets) in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of sqrt(s) = 7 TeV, using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements use data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 34 pb^-1. The b-jets are identified using either a lifetime-based method, where secondary decay vertices of b-hadrons in jets are reconstructed using information from the tracking detectors, or a muon-based method where the presence of a muon is used to identify semileptonic decays of b-hadrons inside jets. The inclusive b-jet cross-section is measured as a function of transverse momentum in the range 20 < pT < 400 GeV and rapidity in the range |y| < 2.1. The bbbar-dijet cross-section is measured as a function of the dijet invariant mass in the range 110 < m_jj < 760 GeV, the azimuthal angle difference between the two jets and the angular variable chi in two dijet mass regions. The results are compared with next-to-leading-order QCD predictions. Good agreement is observed between the measured cross-sections and the predictions obtained using POWHEG + Pythia. MC@NLO + Herwig shows good agreement with the measured bbbar-dijet cross-section. However, it does not reproduce the measured inclusive cross-section well, particularly for central b-jets with large transverse momenta.Comment: 10 pages plus author list (21 pages total), 8 figures, 1 table, final version published in European Physical Journal

Search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at √ s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum are reported. The search uses 20.3 fb−1 of √ s = 8 TeV data collected in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are required to have at least one jet with pT > 120 GeV and no leptons. Nine signal regions are considered with increasing missing transverse momentum requirements between Emiss T > 150 GeV and Emiss T > 700 GeV. Good agreement is observed between the number of events in data and Standard Model expectations. The results are translated into exclusion limits on models with either large extra spatial dimensions, pair production of weakly interacting dark matter candidates, or production of very light gravitinos in a gauge-mediated supersymmetric model. In addition, limits on the production of an invisibly decaying Higgs-like boson leading to similar topologies in the final state are presente

Measurement of the cross-section of high transverse momentum vector bosons reconstructed as single jets and studies of jet substructure in pp collisions at √s = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents a measurement of the cross-section for high transverse momentum W and Z bosons produced in pp collisions and decaying to all-hadronic final states. The data used in the analysis were recorded by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 7 TeV;{\rm Te}{\rm V}$and correspond to an integrated luminosity of$4.6\;{\rm f}{{{\rm b}}^{-1}}$. The measurement is performed by reconstructing the boosted W or Z bosons in single jets. The reconstructed jet mass is used to identify the W and Z bosons, and a jet substructure method based on energy cluster information in the jet centre-of-mass frame is used to suppress the large multi-jet background. The cross-section for events with a hadronically decaying W or Z boson, with transverse momentum${{p}_{{\rm T}}}\gt 320\;{\rm Ge}{\rm V}$and pseudorapidity$|\eta |\lt 1.9$, is measured to be${{\sigma }_{W+Z}}=8.5\pm 1.7$ pb and is compared to next-to-leading-order calculations. The selected events are further used to study jet grooming techniques