A Method for Estimating Size of Population Aged 90 and over with Application to the U.S. Census 2000 Data

In many countries population estimates are unreliable at higher ages. In this article a method for producing an independent estimate of population aged 90+ from data on deaths and population estimates at lower ages is developed. The method builds on an indirect mortality estimate from deaths only and on an estimate of rate of mortality change. Theoretical foundation and bias expected on application of this procedure to the real data are discussed as well. Testing of this method on accurate demographic data shows its superiority over available procedures. The method has been applied to the evaluation of size of population 90+ in the census 2000 of the United States. The results show a high degree of agreement between two estimates, but the possibility of slight overestimation of males in census data cannot be completely ruled out. To facilitate the application of this method, a computer program is provided as well.advanced ages, census, data quality, indirect estimation, indirect mortality estimates, indirect population estimates

Forecasts of cohort mortality after age 50

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The Survivor Ratio Method for Estimating Numbers at High Ages

Only a few countries have official population statistics which are sufficiently accurate to produce reliable estimates of death rates at high ages. For other countries, there are several methods which can be used to produce improved estimates. The choice is important for research on old age mortality. In 1999 the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research undertook a research project to compare the performance of the three leading methods, using data for nine countries over 35 years. This paper describes the research and the results, which were unexpectedly simple. It also gives an authoritative account of the most successful method.estimation techniques, high ages, population estimates, survivor ratio

Measurement of the Z boson differential production cross section using its invisible decay mode (Z -> nu(nu)over-bar) in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

Measurements of the total and differential fiducial cross sections for the Z boson decaying into two neutrinos are presented at the LHC in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13TeV. The data were collected by the CMS detector in 2016 and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb(-1). In these measurements, events are selected containing an imbalance in transverse momentum and one or more energetic jets. The fiducial differential cross section is measured as a function of the Z boson transverse momentum. The results are combined with a previous measurement of charged-lepton decays of the Z boson. The measured total fiducial cross section for events with Z boson transverse momentum greater than 200 GeV is 3000(-170)(+180) fb.Peer reviewe

Measurement of differential cross sections for Z bosons produced in association with charm jets in pp collisions at root s=13 TeV

Measurements are presented of differential cross sections for the production of Z bosons in association with at least one jet initiated by a charm quark in pp collisions at root s = 13 TeV. The data recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC correspond to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb(-1). The final states contain a pair of electrons or muons that are the decay products of a Z boson, and a jet consistent with being initiated by a charm quark produced in the hard interaction. Differential cross sections as a function of the transverse momentum p(T) of the Z boson and p(T) of the charm jet are compared with predictions from Monte Carlo event generators. The inclusive production cross section 405.4 +/- 5.6 (stat) +/- 24.3 (exp) +/- 3.7 (theo) pb, is measured in a fiducial region requiring both leptons to have pseudorapidity |eta| 10 GeV, at least one lepton with p(T)> 26 GeV, and a mass of the pair in the range 71-111 GeV, while the charm jet is required to have p(T)> 30 GeV and |eta| < 2.4. These are the first measurements of these cross sections in proton-proton collisions at 13 TeV.Peer reviewe

Study of Drell-Yan dimuon production in proton-lead collisions at root s(NN )=8.16 TeV

Differential cross sections for the Drell-Yan process, including Z boson production, using the dimuon decay channel are measured in proton-lead (pPb) collisions at a nucleon-nucleon centre-of-mass energy of 8.16 TeV. A data sample recorded with the CMS detector at the LHC is used, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 173 nb(-1). The differential cross section as a function of the dimuon mass is measured in the range 15-600 GeV, for the first time in proton-nucleus collisions. It is also reported as a function of dimuon rapidity over the mass ranges 15-60 GeV and 60-120 GeV, and ratios for the p-going over the Pb-going beam directions are built. In both mass ranges, the differential cross sections as functions of the dimuon transverse momentum p(T), and of a geometric variable phi* are measured, where phi* highly correlates with p(T), but is determined with higher precision. In the Z mass region, the rapidity dependence of the data indicate a modification of the distribution of partons within a lead nucleus as compared to the proton case. The data are more precise than predictions based upon current models of parton distributions.Peer reviewe

Angular analysis of the decay B+ -> K+mu(+)mu(-) in proton-proton collisions at root s=8 TeV

The angular distribution of the flavor-changing neutral current decay B+ -> K+mu(+)mu(-) is studied in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV. The analysis is based on data collected with the CMS detector at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.5 fb(-1). The forward-backward asymmetry A(FB) of the dimuon system and the contribution F-H from the pseudoscalar, scalar, and tensor amplitudes to the decay width are measured as a function of the dimuon mass squared. The measurements are consistent with the standard model expectations.Peer reviewe

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Impacts of the Tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans on the Seasonal Cycle of the West African Monsoon

The current consensus is that drought has developed in the Sahel during the second half of the twentieth century as a result of remote effects of oceanic anomalies amplified by local land–atmosphere interactions. This paper focuses on the impacts of oceanic anomalies upon West African climate and specifically aims to identify those from SST anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Oceans during spring and summer seasons, when they were significant. Idealized sensitivity experiments are performed with four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The prescribed SST patterns used in the AGCMs are based on the leading mode of covariability between SST anomalies over the Pacific/Indian Oceans and summer rainfall over West Africa. The results show that such oceanic anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Ocean lead to a northward shift of an anomalous dry belt from the Gulf of Guinea to the Sahel as the season advances. In the Sahel, the magnitude of rainfall anomalies is comparable to that obtained by other authors using SST anomalies confined to the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean. The mechanism connecting the Pacific/Indian SST anomalies with West African rainfall has a strong seasonal cycle. In spring (May and June), anomalous subsidence develops over both the Maritime Continent and the equatorial Atlantic in response to the enhanced equatorial heating. Precipitation increases over continental West Africa in association with stronger zonal convergence of moisture. In addition, precipitation decreases over the Gulf of Guinea. During the monsoon peak (July and August), the SST anomalies move westward over the equatorial Pacific and the two regions where subsidence occurred earlier in the seasons merge over West Africa. The monsoon weakens and rainfall decreases over the Sahel, especially in August.Peer reviewe

Search for heavy resonances decaying to two Higgs bosons in final states containing four b quarks

A search is presented for narrow heavy resonances X decaying into pairs of Higgs bosons (H) in proton-proton collisions collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC at root s = 8 TeV. The data correspond to an integrated luminosity of 19.7 fb(-1). The search considers HH resonances with masses between 1 and 3 TeV, having final states of two b quark pairs. Each Higgs boson is produced with large momentum, and the hadronization products of the pair of b quarks can usually be reconstructed as single large jets. The background from multijet and t (t) over bar events is significantly reduced by applying requirements related to the flavor of the jet, its mass, and its substructure. The signal would be identified as a peak on top of the dijet invariant mass spectrum of the remaining background events. No evidence is observed for such a signal. Upper limits obtained at 95 confidence level for the product of the production cross section and branching fraction sigma(gg -> X) B(X -> HH -> b (b) over barb (b) over bar) range from 10 to 1.5 fb for the mass of X from 1.15 to 2.0 TeV, significantly extending previous searches. For a warped extra dimension theory with amass scale Lambda(R) = 1 TeV, the data exclude radion scalar masses between 1.15 and 1.55 TeV