Advances in forecasting with neural networks? Empirical evidence from the NN3 competition on time series prediction

This paper reports the results of the NN3 competition, which is a replication of the M3 competition with an extension of the competition towards neural network (NN) and computational intelligence (CI) methods, in order to assess what progress has been made in the 10 years since the M3 competition. Two masked subsets of the M3 monthly industry data, containing 111 and 11 empirical time series respectively, were chosen, controlling for multiple data conditions of time series length (short/long), data patterns (seasonal/non-seasonal) and forecasting horizons (short/medium/long). The relative forecasting accuracy was assessed using the metrics from the M3, together with later extensions of scaled measures, and non-parametric statistical tests. The NN3 competition attracted 59 submissions from NN, CI and statistics, making it the largest CI competition on time series data. Its main findings include: (a) only one NN outperformed the damped trend using the sMAPE, but more contenders outperformed the AutomatANN of the M3; (b) ensembles of CI approaches performed very well, better than combinations of statistical methods; (c) a novel, complex statistical method outperformed all statistical and Cl benchmarks; and (d) for the most difficult subset of short and seasonal series, a methodology employing echo state neural networks outperformed all others. The NN3 results highlight the ability of NN to handle complex data, including short and seasonal time series, beyond prior expectations, and thus identify multiple avenues for future research. (C) 2011 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Soft Computing Techniques for Stock Market Prediction: A Literature Survey

Stock market trading is an unending investment exercise globally. It has potentials to generate high returns on investors’ investment. However, it is characterized by high risk of investment hence, having knowledge and ability to predict stock price or market movement is invaluable to investors in the stock market. Over the years, several soft computing techniques have been used to analyze various stock markets to retrieve knowledge to guide investors on when to buy or sell. This paper surveys over 100 published articles that focus on the application of soft computing techniques to forecast stock markets. The aim of this paper is to present a coherent of information on various soft computing techniques employed for stock market prediction. This research work will enable researchers in this field to know the current trend as well as help to inform their future research efforts. From the surveyed articles, it is evident that researchers have firmly focused on the development of hybrid prediction models and substantial work has also been done on the use of social media data for stock market prediction. It is also revealing that most studies have focused on the prediction of stock prices in emerging market

Metaheuristic design of feedforward neural networks: a review of two decades of research

Over the past two decades, the feedforward neural network (FNN) optimization has been a key interest among the researchers and practitioners of multiple disciplines. The FNN optimization is often viewed from the various perspectives: the optimization of weights, network architecture, activation nodes, learning parameters, learning environment, etc. Researchers adopted such different viewpoints mainly to improve the FNN's generalization ability. The gradient-descent algorithm such as backpropagation has been widely applied to optimize the FNNs. Its success is evident from the FNN's application to numerous real-world problems. However, due to the limitations of the gradient-based optimization methods, the metaheuristic algorithms including the evolutionary algorithms, swarm intelligence, etc., are still being widely explored by the researchers aiming to obtain generalized FNN for a given problem. This article attempts to summarize a broad spectrum of FNN optimization methodologies including conventional and metaheuristic approaches. This article also tries to connect various research directions emerged out of the FNN optimization practices, such as evolving neural network (NN), cooperative coevolution NN, complex-valued NN, deep learning, extreme learning machine, quantum NN, etc. Additionally, it provides interesting research challenges for future research to cope-up with the present information processing era

Discrete and fuzzy dynamical genetic programming in the XCSF learning classifier system

A number of representation schemes have been presented for use within learning classifier systems, ranging from binary encodings to neural networks. This paper presents results from an investigation into using discrete and fuzzy dynamical system representations within the XCSF learning classifier system. In particular, asynchronous random Boolean networks are used to represent the traditional condition-action production system rules in the discrete case and asynchronous fuzzy logic networks in the continuous-valued case. It is shown possible to use self-adaptive, open-ended evolution to design an ensemble of such dynamical systems within XCSF to solve a number of well-known test problems

Developed Clustering Algorithms for Engineering Applications: A Review

Clustering algorithms play a pivotal role in the field of engineering, offering valuable insights into complex datasets. This review paper explores the landscape of developed clustering algorithms with a focus on their applications in engineering. The introduction provides context for the significance of clustering algorithms, setting the stage for an in-depth exploration. The overview section delineates fundamental clustering concepts and elucidates the workings of these algorithms. Categorization of clustering algorithms into partitional, hierarchical, and density-based forms lay the groundwork for a comprehensive discussion. The core of the paper delves into an extensive review of clustering algorithms tailored for engineering applications. Each algorithm is scrutinized in dedicated subsections, unraveling their specific contributions, applications, and advantages. A comparative analysis assesses the performance of these algorithms, delineating their strengths and limitations. Trends and advancements in the realm of clustering algorithms for engineering applications are thoroughly examined. The review concludes with a reflection on the challenges faced by existing clustering algorithms and proposes avenues for future research. This paper aims to provide a valuable resource for researchers, engineers, and practitioners, guiding them in the selection and application of clustering algorithms for diverse engineering scenarios