Persuasion, Political Warfare, and Deterrence: Behavioral and Behaviorally Robust Models

This dissertation examines game theory models in the context of persuasion and competition wherein decision-makers are not completely rational by considering two complementary threads of research. The first thread of research pertains to offensive and preemptively defensive behavioral models. Research in this thread makes three notable contributions. First, an offensive modeling framework is created to identify how an entity optimally influences a populace to take a desired course of action. Second, a defensive modeling framework is defined wherein a regulating entity takes action to bound the behavior of multiple adversaries simultaneously attempting to persuade a group of decision-makers. Third, an offensive influence modeling framework under conditions of ambiguity is developed in accordance with historical information limitations, and we demonstrate how it can be used to select a robust course of action on a specific, data-driven use case. The second thread of research pertains to behavioral and behaviorally robust approaches to deterrence. Research in this thread makes two notable contributions. First, we demonstrate the alternative insights behavioral game theory generates for the analysis of classic deterrence games, and explicate the rich analysis generated from its combined use with standard equilibrium models. Second, we define behaviorally robust models for an agent to use in a normal form game under varying forms of uncertainty in order to inform deterrence policy decisions

Impact of uncertain CCS deployment on EU climate negotiations

In this paper we propose a stochastic non-cooperative meta-game approach to assess the role of uncertain CCS deployment on climate agreements among 28 European countries. The game model is identified through statistical emulation of a large set of numerical simulations performed with the computable general equilibrium model GEMINI-E3. In this game the players are the 28 European countries, the payoffs are related to the welfare losses due to abatements and the strategies correspond to the supply of emission rights on the European carbon market. The paper then analyzes the potential contribution of the penetration of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies to European CO2 abatements and the impact of CCS uncertainty pertaining to the rate of penetration of CCS technologies and to their cost on the design of burden sharing agreements

Evolutionary games on graphs

Game theory is one of the key paradigms behind many scientific disciplines from biology to behavioral sciences to economics. In its evolutionary form and especially when the interacting agents are linked in a specific social network the underlying solution concepts and methods are very similar to those applied in non-equilibrium statistical physics. This review gives a tutorial-type overview of the field for physicists. The first three sections introduce the necessary background in classical and evolutionary game theory from the basic definitions to the most important results. The fourth section surveys the topological complications implied by non-mean-field-type social network structures in general. The last three sections discuss in detail the dynamic behavior of three prominent classes of models: the Prisoner's Dilemma, the Rock-Scissors-Paper game, and Competing Associations. The major theme of the review is in what sense and how the graph structure of interactions can modify and enrich the picture of long term behavioral patterns emerging in evolutionary games.Comment: Review, final version, 133 pages, 65 figure

Algorithmic Graph Theory

The main focus of this workshop was on mathematical techniques needed for the development of efficient solutions and algorithms for computationally difficult graph problems. The techniques studied at the workshhop included: the probabilistic method and randomized algorithms, approximation and optimization, structured families of graphs and approximation algorithms for large problems. The workshop Algorithmic Graph Theory was attended by 46 participants, many of them being young researchers. In 15 survey talks an overview of recent developments in Algorithmic Graph Theory was given. These talks were supplemented by 10 shorter talks and by two special sessions

Stake-governed tug-of-war and the biased infinity Laplacian

In tug-of-war, two players compete by moving a counter along edges of a graph, each winning the right to move at a given turn according to the flip of a possibly biased coin. The game ends when the counter reaches the boundary, a fixed subset of the vertices, at which point one player pays the other an amount determined by the boundary vertex. Economists and mathematicians have independently studied tug-of-war for many years, focussing respectively on resource-allocation forms of the game, in which players iteratively spend precious budgets in an effort to influence the bias of the coins that determine the turn victors; and on PDE arising in fine mesh limits of the constant-bias game in a Euclidean setting. In this article, we offer a mathematical treatment of a class of tug-of-war games with allocated budgets: each player is initially given a fixed budget which she draws on throughout the game to offer a stake at the start of each turn, and her probability of winning the turn is the ratio of her stake and the sum of the two stakes. We consider the game played on a tree, with boundary being the set of leaves, and the payment function being the indicator of a single distinguished leaf. We find the game value and the essentially unique Nash equilibrium of a leisurely version of the game, in which the move at any given turn is cancelled with constant probability after stakes have been placed. We show that the ratio of the players' remaining budgets is maintained at its initial value $\lambda$; game value is a biased infinity harmonic function; and the proportion of remaining budget that players stake at a given turn is given in terms of the spatial gradient and the $\lambda$-derivative of game value. We also indicate examples in which the solution takes a different form in the non-leisurely game.Comment: 69 pages with four figures. Updated to include discussion of the economics literature of tug-of-wa

Threat Assessment for Multistage Cyber Attacks in Smart Grid Communication Networks

In smart grids, managing and controlling power operations are supported by information and communication technology (ICT) and supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems. The increasing adoption of new ICT assets in smart grids is making smart grids vulnerable to cyber threats, as well as raising numerous concerns about the adequacy of current security approaches. As a single act of penetration is often not sufficient for an attacker to achieve his/her goal, multistage cyber attacks may occur. Due to the interdependence between the power grid and the communication network, a multistage cyber attack not only affects the cyber system but impacts the physical system. This thesis investigates an application-oriented stochastic game-theoretic cyber threat assessment framework, which is strongly related to the information security risk management process as standardized in ISO/IEC 27005. The proposed cyber threat assessment framework seeks to address the specific challenges (e.g., dynamic changing attack scenarios and understanding cascading effects) when performing threat assessments for multistage cyber attacks in smart grid communication networks. The thesis looks at the stochastic and dynamic nature of multistage cyber attacks in smart grid use cases and develops a stochastic game-theoretic model to capture the interactions of the attacker and the defender in multistage attack scenarios. To provide a flexible and practical payoff formulation for the designed stochastic game-theoretic model, this thesis presents a mathematical analysis of cascading failure propagation (including both interdependency cascading failure propagation and node overloading cascading failure propagation) in smart grids. In addition, the thesis quantifies the characterizations of disruptive effects of cyber attacks on physical power grids. Furthermore, this thesis discusses, in detail, the ingredients of the developed stochastic game-theoretic model and presents the implementation steps of the investigated stochastic game-theoretic cyber threat assessment framework. An application of the proposed cyber threat assessment framework for evaluating a demonstrated multistage cyber attack scenario in smart grids is shown. The cyber threat assessment framework can be integrated into an existing risk management process, such as ISO 27000, or applied as a standalone threat assessment process in smart grid use cases