Dominant role of greenhouse-gas forcing in the recovery of Sahel rainfall

Sahelian summer rainfall, controlled by the West African monsoon, exhibited large-amplitude multidecadal variability during the twentieth century. Particularly important was the severe drought of the 1970s and 1980s, which had widespread impacts1–6. Research into the causes of this drought has identified anthropogenic aerosol forcing3,4,7 and changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs; refs 1,2,6,8–11) as the most important drivers. Since the 1980s, there has been some recovery of Sahel rainfall amounts2–6,11–14, although not to the pre-drought levels of the 1940s and 1950s. Here we report on experiments with the atmospheric component of a state-of-the-art global climate model to identify the causes of this recovery. Our results suggest that the direct influence of higher levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere was the main cause, with an additional role for changes in anthropogenic aerosol precursor emissions. We find that recent changes in SSTs, although substantial, did not have a significant impact on the recovery. The simulated response to anthropogenic greenhouse-gas and aerosol forcing is consistent with a multivariate fingerprint of the observed recovery, raising confidence in our findings. Although robust predictions are not yet possible, our results suggest that the recent recovery in Sahel rainfall amounts is most likely to be sustained or amplified in the near term

Monsoons: global energetics and local physics as drivers of past, present and future monsoons

Global constraints on momentum and energy govern the structure of the zonal mean tropical circulation and rainfall. The continental-scale monsoon systems are also facets of a momentum- and energy-constrained global circulation, but their modern and paleo variability deviates substantially from that of the longitudinal mean through mechanisms neither fully understood nor well simulated. A framework grounded in global constraints yet encompassing the complexities of monsoon dynamics is needed to identify the causes of mismatch between theory, models, and observations and, ultimately, improve regional climate projection. In a first step towards this goal, disparate regional processes must be distilled into gross measures of energy flow in and out of continents and from the surface to the tropopause, so that monsoon dynamics may be coherently diagnosed across modern and paleo observations and across idealized and comprehensive simulations. Accounting for zonal asymmetries in the circulation, land/ocean differences in surface fluxes, and the character of convective systems, such a monsoon framework would integrate our understanding at all relevant scales: from the fine details of how moisture and energy are lifted in the updrafts of thunderclouds, up to the global circulations

Gout. Epidemiology of gout

Gout is the most prevalent form of inflammatory arthropathy. Several studies suggest that its prevalence and incidence have risen in recent decades. Numerous risk factors for the development of gout have been established, including hyperuricaemia, genetic factors, dietary factors, alcohol consumption, metabolic syndrome, hypertension, obesity, diuretic use and chronic renal disease. Osteoarthritis predisposes to local crystal deposition. Gout appears to be an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality and morbidity, additional to the risk conferred by its association with traditional cardiovascular risk factors

Immune Surveillance in Clinical Regression of Preinvasive Squamous Cell Lung Cancer

This is the author accepted manuscript. the final version is available from the American Association for Cancer Research via the DOI in this recordData Availability: All raw data used in this study is publicly available. Previously published CIS gene expression and methylation data is stored on GEO under accession number GSE108124; matched stromal gene expression data is stored under accession number GSE133690. Previously published CIS whole genome sequencing data is available from the European Genome Phenome Archive (https://www.ebi.ac.uk/ega/) under accession number EGAD00001003883. Annotated H&E images of all samples used for lymphocyte quantification were deposited to the Image Data Resource (https://idr.openmicroscopy.org) under accession number idr0082.Code Availability: All code used in our analysis will be made available at http://github.com/ucl446 respiratory/cis_immunology on publication. All software information, and parameters used in our analysis can be found here.Before squamous cell lung cancer develops, precancerous lesions can be found in the airways. From longitudinal monitoring, we know that only half of such lesions become cancer, whereas a third spontaneously regress. Although recent studies have described the presence of an active immune response in high-grade lesions, the mechanisms underpinning clinical regression of precancerous lesions remain unknown. Here, we show that host immune surveillance is strongly implicated in lesion regression. Using bronchoscopic biopsies from human subjects, we find that regressive carcinoma in situ lesions harbor more infiltrating immune cells than those that progress to cancer. Moreover, molecular profiling of these lesions identifies potential immune escape mechanisms specifically in those that progress to cancer: antigen presentation is impaired by genomic and epigenetic changes, CCL27-CCR10 signaling is upregulated, and the immunomodulator TNFSF9 is downregulated. Changes appear intrinsic to the carcinoma in situ lesions, as the adjacent stroma of progressive and regressive lesions are transcriptomically similar. SIGNIFICANCE: Immune evasion is a hallmark of cancer. For the first time, this study identifies mechanisms by which precancerous lesions evade immune detection during the earliest stages of carcinogenesis and forms a basis for new therapeutic strategies that treat or prevent early-stage lung cancer.See related commentary by Krysan et al., p. 1442.This article is highlighted in the In This Issue feature, p. 1426

Global, regional, and national cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-Adjusted life-years for 29 cancer groups, 1990 to 2017 : A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study

Importance: Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data. Objective: To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning. Evidence Review: We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-Adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence. Findings: In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs). Conclusions and Relevance: The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care. © 2019 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe