Gender issues in the school textbook: A linguistic approach

No presente estudo analisam-se textos de manuais/livros escolares utilizados no Ensino Básico de Portugal, pretendendo-se revelar as representações que estes constroem das crianças e da infância, por meio dos mecanismos linguísticos de atribuição de papéis estereotipados às crianças, consoante o género a que pertencem. A investigação inscreve-se no domínio abrangente dos Estudos da Criança, mas dá especial importância à materialidade linguística dos textos, tendo por base os pressupostos da Análise do Discurso. Conclui que as crianças representadas nos textos são retratadas de forma diferente, consoante o sexo a que pertencem: enquanto as crianças do sexo masculino são caracterizadas como dominadoras, corajosas e audazes, as do sexo feminino apresentam traços de fragilidade e submissão. Esses estereótipos funcionam como “naturalizadores” dos papéis sociais dos leitores e configuram, assim, importantes aspetos da sociedade em construção.Palavras-chave: criança, manual escolar, género.This study presents an analysis of school textbooks used in the Basic Education in Portugal and aims at revealing the representations they construct from children and childhood, through the linguistic means that allocate stereotyped roles to children, based on the gender to which they belong. This research is framed within the comprehensive field of Child Studies, however, it attaches special emphasis to the linguistic materiality of texts, based on the assumptions of Discourse Analysis. It concludes that the children represented in the texts are portrayed differently, according to the sex to which they belong: while male children are characterized as commanding, brave, and audacious, while female children show traces of fragility and submissiveness. These stereotypes work as “naturalizers” of the social role models among readers and, therefore, shape important aspects of the society under construction.Keywords: child, school textbook, gender

A infância representada no livro escolar: tipos de textos e estereótipos sociais

Esta investigação inscreve-se dominantemente no âmbito dos estudos da criança e ancora a sua área específica nas questões linguísticas, assumindo os pressupostos teóricos e metodológicos da análise do discurso (de tradição francófona), considerando também contributos de áreas conexas. Analisa textos de manuais/livros escolares usados no sistema de ensino português, pretendendo tornar visíveis as imagens que estes constroem das crianças e da infância, bem como os recursos linguísticos mais relevantes associados a tal construção. Procura desvendar a representatividade das tipologias textuais nos manuais e de que forma estas contribuem para a construção das referidas imagens. Conclui que as crianças dos textos são seres sem voz e sem poder, consumidoras, mas não coprodutoras de cultura, com os textos inculcando valores conformadores da manutenção da ordem social estabelecida, sendo a forma como as tipologias textuais estão organizadas contribuidora para se alcançar esse propósito.This research forms primarily part of the child studies and is based on its specific field of linguistic issues, assuming the theoretical and methodological assumptions of the speech analysis (of French-speaking tradition), having also regard the inputs of related fields. It analyses texts from handbooks/textbooks used on the Portuguese educational system, intending to reveal pictures that these books construct about children and childhood, as well as the most relevant linguistic resources associated with such construction. This paper aims at unravelling the representation of the text typologies in the handbooks and how these can contribute for building of such pictures. From this, one can conclude that children from the texts are voiceless and have no power, they are consumers but not co-producers of culture, with these texts instilling conservative values for maintaining the established social order, but also that the way texts typologies are organized to contribute for reaching that propose.Esta investigación se ensere en el ámbito de los estudios del niño y más precisamente en la área de las cuestiones lingüísticas, asumiendo los presupuestos teóricos e metodológicos de la análisis del discurso (de tradición francófona), considerando también aportes de las áreas conexas. Analiza textos de manuales/libros escolares usados en el sistema de enseñanza portugués, pretendiendo tornar visibles las imágenes que este construyen de los niños y de la infancia, bien como los recursos lingüísticos más relevantes asociados a esa construcción. Busca desvendar la representatividad de las tipologías textuales en los manuales y de qué forma contribuyen para la construcción de las referidas imágenes. Concluye que los niños de los textos son seres sin voz y sin poder, consumidores, pero no coproductores de cultura y que los textos inculcan valores conformadores de manutención del orden social establecido, mas también que la forma como las tipologías textuales están organizadas contribuye para alcanzar ese propósito.CIEC - Centro de Investigação em Estudos da Criança, IE, UMinho (UI 317 da FCT), Portugal. Fundos Nacionais através da FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) e cofinanciado pelo Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional (FEDER) através do COMPETE 2020 – Programa Operacional Competitividade e Internacionalização (POCI) no âmbito do CIEC (Centro de Investigação em Estudos da Criança, da Universidade do Minho) com a referência POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007562info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

I Congresso Ibero-Americano de Bibliotecas Escolares

Actas de la primera edición del I Congreso Iberoamericano de Bibliotecas Escolares, CIBES 2015, organizado por la Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (España), la Universidad Estatal Paulista (Brasil) y el Ayuntamiento de Getafe (España). Celebrado: 21 - 23 de octubre de 2015 en la Universidad Estatal Paulista (Marília) y 26 - 28 de octubre de 2015 en la Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (Getafe)Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (España)Universidad Estatal Paulista (Brasil)Ayuntamiento de Getafe (España)Dimensiones y visiones de la biblioteca escolar en una Educación por competencias: la necesidad de una política estratégica / Miguel Ángel Marzal. -- Getafe ciudad educadora, lectora y escritora: Bibliotecas escolares / Lourdes Muñoz Santiuste. -- Presente y futuro: biblioteca escolar-CREA y proyectos interdisciplinares / Rosa Piquín. -- Cultura en información: un reto esencial de la biblioteca escolar / Mónica Baró. -- Bibliotecas escolares de Galicia: un mundo de oportunidades a favor de la Educación / Cristina Novoa. -- 10 años de la Red de Bibliotecas Escolares de Extremadura (REBEX) / Casildo Macías Pereira. -- Biblioteca Escolar y uso ético de la información para una Cultura de Paz / Ana Barrero Tíscar. -- Dinamización de la Biblioteca Escolar Plumita durante el curso escolar 2014/15 / María Antonia Cano Cañada. -- Experiencia de la creación de una biblioteca escolar / Susana Santos Martín. -- Grupo cooperativo Bibliotecas escolares en Red-Albacete / José Manuel Garrido Argandoña y Eva Leal Scasso. -- La BCREA "Juan Leiva". El fomento de la lectura desde la web social / Andrés Pulido Villar. -- Proceso de implantación de una herramienta de autoevaluación en la red de bibliotecas escolares de Extremadura (REBEX) / Casildo Macías Pereira. -- La biblioteca escolar: abriendo fronteras / Lorena Verónica Cabrera Orellana. -- O programa RBE e a avaliaçao das bibliotecas escolares: melhoria, desenvolvimiento e innovaçao / Elsa Conde. -- Profesional de Biblioteconomía y Documentación: esencial en la plantilla de la escuela / Pilar del Campo Puerta. -- Una mirada activa al proceso educativo desde la biblioteca escolar / María Jesús Fontela Fernández . -- Con otra mirada "La ilustración como vehículo de comunicación y aprendizaje en las bibliotecas escolares" / Pablo Jurado Sánchez-Galán. -- Fingertips. Recriar a biblioteca escolar na sala de aula / Rui Alfonso Mateus. -- Hablemos de libros. Cómo transformar una clase de literatura en una comunidad de interpretación de textos / Francisco César Díaz Rey. -- Inclusión social de familias inmigrantes a través de un programa de aprendizaje de la lengua castellana / Ana Carmen Tolino Fernández-Henarejos. -- O desenvolvimento de atividades de mediação de leitura em biblioteca escolar: o caso da biblioteca da Escola Sesc de Ensino Médio / Vagner Amaro. -- La biblioteca escolar. Proceso de enseñanza-aprendizaje de padres a hijos / Ana Carmen Tolino Fernández- Henarejos. -- Leo con y para los demás / Ismael Fernández Fernández, Ana María Moreno Vicente y Ana Beatriz Vicente Pérez. -- Nanas y arrullo. Poesía a la deriva / Bernardo Fuentes Navarrete y Carlos García-Romeral Pérez. -- Gestión y evaluación de servicios bibliotecarios para personas con dislexia: una biblioteca escolar inclusiva desde una perspectiva internacional / Carmen Jorge García-Reyes. -- Sueños lectores compartidos hechos realidad: la biblioteca escolar del C.E.I.P-S.E.S-A.A “LA PAZ” de Albacete / Ana Rosa Cabañero Tobarra, Juan Manuel Herráez, Eva Leal Scasso, María Marín Sánchez, Ana Belén Medrano Martínez y María José Nortes Ruipérez. -- El programa biblioteca escuela en Civican. La literatura como elemento motivador para la alfabetización informacional / Villar Arellano Yanguas. -- La competencia digital en el diseño curricular: desde la biblioteca al aula / Felicidad Campal García. -- O deselvomimento da pesquisa escolar por meio da competência em informaçao / Luciane de Fátima Cavalcante Beckman y Marta Leandro da Mata. -- Proyecto escolar de investigación documental "Te pillé leyendo" / José Manuel Garrido Argandoña. -- Aprender com a Biblioteca Escolar: formar para as literacias / Paula Correia y Isabel Mendinhos. -- Sucedió en el siglo XX / María Antonia Becerra Montalbán, Ángel Bernabé Muñoz y Sofía Vaz Romero. -- El Club de lectura en la nube / Belén Benito Blázquez y Ana Ordás García. -- Promover a leitura e a escrita na era digital: prácticas nas bibliotecas escolares / María Raquel Ramos. -- A biblioteca escolar e o desafío da interculturalidade: o projeto Ser + cidadao / María da Conceição Tomé. -- Cuando la competencia digital encontró a la alfabetización informacional o Mucho ruido y pocas nueces / Felicidad Campal García. -- Hora de ler, un programa para el fomento de la lectura en contexto educativo / Cristina Novoa. -- Hábitos de lectura para las competencias en información y alfabetización en información en bibliotecas escolares de Puerto Rico / Karen Denise Centeno Casillas. -- Repositorios digitales en las bibliotecas escolares andaluzas: situación, modelos y herramientas para su creación / Dolores Olmos Olmos y Andrés Pulido Villar. -- Trabajando las competencias clave con las aventuras de Mozarito en Extremadura / María Teresa Carballosa González y María Esther Nieto Vidal. -- Análisis de modelos de evaluación de la web de la biblioteca escolar / Raúl Cremades García. -- Emociónate con las historias: El bosque de las emociones e historias con mucho teatro / Esther Luis Pérez y Ana María Peromingo Fernández. -- Biblioteca escolar de innovación y continuación / E. María Guerrero Palacios y Silvia Mora Ramírez. -- Uso de estándares y licencias para la creación y difusión de contenidos en las bibliotecas escolares / José Luis Barreiro Cebey. -- La biblioteca escolar digital móvil / Javier Fernández Delgado. -- Uso de aplicaciones móviles para el desarrollo de la competencia lingüística. Proyecto Hansel App Gretel / Dolores Olmos Olmos. -- A memória e a mediação segundo Vigotski / Leda Maria Araújo, Patricia Celia Santana, Sueli Bortolin y Leticia Gorri Molina. -- Bibliotecas escolares como tema de estudo dos alunos de graduação em blioteconomia do Instituto de Ensino Superior da FUNLEC: estado da arte / Tiago Pereira Nocera y Rodrigo Pereira. -- Ações de mediação da leitura e da informação em bibliotecas escolares: um olhar sobre as bibliotecas dos Colégios de Aplicação / Tatyanne Christina Gonçalves Ferreira Valdez y Alberto Calil Júnior. -- Mediação pedagógica numa biblioteca de escola pública em Londrina / Rovilson José da Silva, Teba Silva Yllana y Sueli Bortolin. -- Utilização de categorias por cores em sistema de biblioteca voltado ao público infanto-juvenil / Liliana Giusti Serra. -- Atividades de ensino dos atos de leitura com crianças em risco social / Adriana Naomi Fukushima da Silva y Dagoberto Buim Arena. -- Biblioteca escolar: espaço de significados entre alunos, professores e bibliotecários / Rodrigo Barbosa Paulo, Marisa Xavier, Helen Castro Casarin y Creuza Barbaroto. -- A Biblioteca Escolar no Contexto da Legislação e do Processo Educativo / Eliane Lourdes da Silva Moro, Francisca Rosaline Leite Mota y Raimundo Martins de Lima. -- O jornal impresso como fonte de informação: a importância da formação de leitores críticos / Mariana Pícaro Cerigatto. -- Bibliotecas escolares no estado do Rio Grande do Sul: a trajetória de realização dos fóruns gaúchos pela melhoria das bibliotecas escolares / Eliane Lourdes da Silva Moro y Lizandra Brasil Estabel. -- O acesso à informação dos usuários surdos na biblioteca escolar / André Luís Onório Coneglian y Mayara Melo Santana. -- Aprendizagem coletiva de bibliotecários e a competência de pesquisa dos docentes: o caso do Instituto Federal do Espírito Santo / Maristela Almeida Mercandeli Rodrigues y Beatriz Quiroz Villardi. -- Biblioteca escolar: atores, parâmetros e competências / Mavi Galante Mancera Dall´Acqua Carvalho y Claudio Marcondes de Castro Filho. -- Estratégias de aprendizagem de escrita no Ensino Fundamental II / Érika Christina Kohle. -- Bebês e livros: leitura nas bebetecas. Kenia Adriana de Aquino Modesto Silva, Juliane Francischeti Martins Motoyama y Renata Junqueira de Souza. -- Práticas alternativas para organização de acervos nos espaços de leitura em ambientes escolares / Luciana Souza Gracioso, Ariovaldo Alves, Débora Nascimento, Suelen Redondo, Tainara Torika Kiri de Castro, Elizabete Angelon y Eduardo Barbosa. -- Reflexões sobre a modelagem e criação de uma Rede Virtual de Leitores para Bibliotecas Escolares / Carla Floriana Martins y Raoni Guerra Rajão. -- Biblioteca escolar: espaço de formação leitora? / Silvana Ferreira de Souza Balsan y Renata Junqueira de Souza. -- “Se a Biblioteca Escolar é minha mãe, o Google é meu pai”: representações da relação entre Biblioteca Escolar e Google no imaginário de alunos do ensino técnico / Adriana Bogliolo Sirihal-Duarte, Maria L. Amorim Antunes y Raquel Miranda Vilela Paiva. -- Desafios e propostas para a universalização das bibliotecas escolares no Brasil e na Espanha / Rodrigo Pereira, Daniela Spudeit y Fernanda de Sales. -- Bibliotecário educador: possibilidades de atuação no contexto da biblioteca escolar / André Carlos da Silva, Valéria Martin Valls y Mariana de Paula Silva. -- Uma ONG para Bibliotecas Escolares : estratégia para ampliar a igualdade e capacidade de acesso e uso da informação e educação escolar de qualidade / Suelen Camilo Ferreira y Luciana de Souza Gracioso. -- O aluno com deficência: o papel do bibliotecário na disponibilidade de recursos acessíveis na biblioteca escolar / Adriano de Sales Coelho, Rosilene de Melo Oliveira y Marcos Pastana Santos. -- Biblioteca digital virtual e o uso do tablete: uma possibilidade de construção de novas práticas de leitura na escola / Barbara Cibelli da Silva Monteagudo y Dagoberto Buim Arena. -- A importância da biblioteca na educação de crianças de 0 a 3 anos / Yngrid Karolline Mendonça Costa y Cyntia Graziella Guizelim Simões Girotto. -- Comportamento Informacional de adolescentes: a relação com bibliotecas e escolas / Nelson Sebastian Silva-Jerez y Helen de Castro S. Casarin

Aspectos da configuração do discurso de opinião na comunicação social

O discurso de opinião política na comunicação social apresenta-se multifacetado, comunga das características de outros tipos de discurso, estabelece com eles relações intertextuais ou de proximidade a vários níveis, assume-se como manifestação de uma polifonia que concorre decididamente para a sua delimitação. Este trabalho procura identificar algumas dimensões da configuração própria destes textos, inscrevendo-se numa perspectiva de análise da Linguística do Uso/Funcionamento do Sistema. Assim, após abordar as incidências dos aspectos visuais na construção do todo significativo, mostra qual o papel assumido pelos vários actuantes envolvidos na comunicação, numa perspectiva argumentativa e pole'mica. Nesta linha, analisa os processos de criação de imagens eufóricas e disfóricas e o papel de mecanismos sintáctico-semânticos vários na troca linguística estabelecida

Characterisation of microbial attack on archaeological bone

As part of an EU funded project to investigate the factors influencing bone preservation in the archaeological record, more than 250 bones from 41 archaeological sites in five countries spanning four climatic regions were studied for diagenetic alteration. Sites were selected to cover a range of environmental conditions and archaeological contexts. Microscopic and physical (mercury intrusion porosimetry) analyses of these bones revealed that the majority (68%) had suffered microbial attack. Furthermore, significant differences were found between animal and human bone in both the state of preservation and the type of microbial attack present. These differences in preservation might result from differences in early taphonomy of the bones. © 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundFuture trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.MethodsUsing forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.FindingsIn the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]).InterpretationGlobally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.</p