Production and use of estimates for monitoring progress in the health sector: the case of Bangladesh

Background: In order to support the progress towards the post-2015 development agenda for the health sector, the importance of high-quality and timely estimates has become evident both globally and at the country level

Protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial of LPG cookstoves compared to usual cooking practices to reduce perinatal mortality and morbidity in rural Bangladesh called Poriborton : the CHANge trial

Background: Household air pollution is a leading health risk for global morbidity and mortality and a major health risk in South Asia. However, there are no prospective investigations of the impact of household air pollution on perinatal morbidity and mortality. Our trial aims to assess the impact of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for cooking to reduce household air pollution exposure on perinatal morbidity and mortality compared to usual cooking practices in Bangladesh. Hypothesis: In a community-based cluster randomised controlled trial of pregnant women cooking with LPG throughout pregnancy, perinatal mortality will be reduced by 35% compared with usual cooking practices in a rural community in Bangladesh. Methods: A two-arm community-based cluster randomised controlled trial will be conducted in the Sherpur district, Bangladesh. In the intervention arm, pregnant women receive an LPG cookstove and LPG in cylinders supplied throughout pregnancy until birth. In the control or usual practice arm, pregnant women continue their usual cooking practices, predominately traditional stoves with biomass fuel. Eligible women are pregnant women with a gestational age of 40–120 days, aged between 15 and 49 years, and permanent residents of the study area. The primary outcome is the difference in perinatal mortality between the LPG arm and the usual cooking arm. Secondary outcomes include (i) preterm birth and low birth weight, (ii) personal level exposure to household air pollution, (iii) satisfaction and acceptability of the LPG stove and stove use, and (iv) cost-effectiveness and cost-utility in reducing perinatal morbidity and mortality. We follow up all women and infants to 45 days after the birth. Personal exposure to household air pollution is assessed at three-time points in a sub-sample of the study population using the MicroPEM™. The total required sample size is 4944 pregnant women. Discussion: This trial will produce evidence of the effectiveness of reduced exposure to household air pollution through LPG cooking to reduce perinatal morbidity and mortality compared to usual cooking practices. This evidence will inform policies for the adoption of clean fuel in Bangladesh and other similar settings

Shonjibon cash and counselling : a community-based cluster randomised controlled trial to measure the effectiveness of unconditional cash transfers and mobile behaviour change communications to reduce child undernutrition in rural Bangladesh

Background: Undernutrition is strongly associated with poverty - levels of undernutrition are higher in poor countries than in better-off countries. Social protection especially cash transfer is increasingly recognized as an important strategy to accelerate progress in improving maternal and child nutrition. A critical method to improve nutrition knowledge and influence feeding practices is through behaviour change communication intervention. The Shonjibon Cash and Counselling study aims to assess the effectiveness of unconditional cash transfers combined with a mobile application on nutrition counselling and direct counselling through mobile phone in reducing the prevalence of stunting in children at 18 months. Method: The study is a longitudinal cluster randomised controlled trial, with two parallel groups, and cluster assignment by groups of villages. The cohort of mother-child dyads will be followed-up over the intervention period of approximately 24 months, starting from recruitment to 18 months of the child’s age. The study will take place in north-central Bangladesh. The primary trial outcome will be the percentage of stunted children at 18 m as measured in follow up assessments starting from birth. The secondary trial outcomes will include differences between treatment arms in (1) Mean birthweight, percentage with low birthweight and small for gestational age (2) Mean child length-for age, weight for age and weight-for-length Z scores (3) Prevalence of child wasting (4) Percentage of women exclusively breastfeeding and mean duration of exclusive breastfeeding (5) Percentage of children consuming > 4 food groups (6) Mean child intake of energy, protein, carbohydrate, fat and micronutrients (7) Percentage of women at risk of inadequate nutrient intakes in all three trimesters (8) Maternal weight gain (9) Household food security (10) Number of events for child suffering from diarrhoea, acute respiratory illness and fever (11) Average costs of mobile phone BCC and cash transfer, and benefit-cost ratio for primary and secondary outcomes. Discussion: The proposed trial will provide high-level evidence of the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of mobile phone nutrition behavior change communication, combined with unconditional cash transfers in reducing child undernutrition in rural Bangladesh. Trial registration: The study has been registered in the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12618001975280)

Out-of-pocket expenditure for seeking health care for sick children younger than 5 years of age in Bangladesh: findings from cross-sectional surveys, 2009 and 2012

Background: Bangladesh has committed to universal health coverage, and options to decrease household out-of-pocket expenditure (OPE) are being explored. Understanding the determinants of OPE is an essential step. This study aimed to estimate and identify determinants of OPE in seeking health care for sick under-five children. Methods: Cross-sectional data was collected by structured questionnaire in 2009 (n = 7362) and 2012 (n = 6896) from mothers of the under-five children. OPE included consultation fees and costs of medicine, diagnostic tests, hospital admission, transport, accommodation, and food. Expenditure is expressed in US dollars and adjusted for inflation. Linear regression was used for ascertaining the determinants of OPE. Results: Between 2009 and 2012, the median OPE for seeking care for a sick under-five child increased by ~ 50%, from USD 0.82 (interquartile range 0.39\u20131.49) to USD 1.22 (0.63\u20132.36) per child/visit. Increases were observed in every component OPE measured, except for consultation fees which decreased by 12%. Medicine contributed the major portion of overall OPE. Higher overall OPE for care seeking was associated with a priority illness (20% increase), care from trained providers (90% public/~ 2-fold private), residing in hilly/wet lands areas (20%) , and for mothers with a secondary education (19%). Conclusion: OPE is a major barrier to quality health care services and access to appropriate medicine is increasing in rural Bangladesh. To support the goal of universal health care coverage, geographic imbalances as well as expanded health financing options need to be explored

A community-based cluster randomised controlled trial in rural Bangladesh to evaluate the impact of the use of iron-folic acid supplements early in pregnancy on the risk of neonatal mortality: The Shonjibon trial

Abstract Background Iron-deficiency is the most common nutritional deficiency globally. Due to the high iron requirements for pregnancy, it is highly prevalent and severe in pregnant women. There is strong evidence that maternal iron deficiency anaemia increases the risk of adverse perinatal outcomes. However, most of the evidence is from observational epidemiological studies except for a very few randomised controlled trials. IFA supplements have also been found to reduce the preterm delivery rate and neonatal mortality attributable to prematurity and birth asphyxia. These results combined indicate that IFA supplements in populations of iron-deficient pregnant women could lead to a decrease in the number of neonatal deaths mediated by reduced rates of preterm delivery. In this paper, we describe the protocol of a community-based cluster randomised controlled trial that aims to evaluate the impact of maternal antenatal IFA supplements on perinatal outcomes. Methods/design The effect of the early use of iron-folic acid supplements on neonatal mortality will be examined using a community based, cluster randomised controlled trial in five districts with 30,000 live births. In intervention clusters trained BRAC village volunteers will identify pregnant women & provide iron-folic acid supplements. Groundwater iron levels will be measured in all study households using a validated test kit. The analysis will follow the intention to treat principle. We will compare neonatal mortality rates & their 95% confidence intervals adjusted for clustering between treatment groups in each groundwater iron-level group. Cox proportional hazards mixed models will be used for mortality outcomes & will include groundwater iron level as an interaction term in the mortality model. Discussion This paper aims to describe the study protocol of a community based randomised controlled trial evaluating the impact of the use of iron-folic acid supplements early in pregnancy on the risk of neonatal mortality. This study is critical because it will determine if antenatal IFA supplements commenced in the first trimester of pregnancy, rather than later, will significantly reduce neonatal deaths in the first month of life, and if this approach is cost-effective. Trial registration This trial has been registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) on 31 May 2012. The registration ID is ACTRN12612000588897

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC

Adolescent transport and unintentional injuries: a systematic analysis using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Globally, transport and unintentional injuries persist as leading preventable causes of mortality and morbidity for adolescents. We sought to report comprehensive trends in injury-related mortality and morbidity for adolescents aged 10–24 years during the past three decades. Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2019 Study, we analysed mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributed to transport and unintentional injuries for adolescents in 204 countries. Burden is reported in absolute numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population by sex, age group (10–14, 15–19, and 20–24 years), and sociodemographic index (SDI) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We report percentage changes in deaths and DALYs between 1990 and 2019. Findings: In 2019, 369 061 deaths (of which 214 337 [58%] were transport related) and 31·1 million DALYs (of which 16·2 million [52%] were transport related) among adolescents aged 10–24 years were caused by transport and unintentional injuries combined. If compared with other causes, transport and unintentional injuries combined accounted for 25% of deaths and 14% of DALYs in 2019, and showed little improvement from 1990 when such injuries accounted for 26% of adolescent deaths and 17% of adolescent DALYs. Throughout adolescence, transport and unintentional injury fatality rates increased by age group. The unintentional injury burden was higher among males than females for all injury types, except for injuries related to fire, heat, and hot substances, or to adverse effects of medical treatment. From 1990 to 2019, global mortality rates declined by 34·4% (from 17·5 to 11·5 per 100 000) for transport injuries, and by 47·7% (from 15·9 to 8·3 per 100 000) for unintentional injuries. However, in low-SDI nations the absolute number of deaths increased (by 80·5% to 42 774 for transport injuries and by 39·4% to 31 961 for unintentional injuries). In the high-SDI quintile in 2010–19, the rate per 100 000 of transport injury DALYs was reduced by 16·7%, from 838 in 2010 to 699 in 2019. This was a substantially slower pace of reduction compared with the 48·5% reduction between 1990 and 2010, from 1626 per 100 000 in 1990 to 838 per 100 000 in 2010. Between 2010 and 2019, the rate of unintentional injury DALYs per 100 000 also remained largely unchanged in high-SDI countries (555 in 2010 vs 554 in 2019; 0·2% reduction). The number and rate of adolescent deaths and DALYs owing to environmental heat and cold exposure increased for the high-SDI quintile during 2010–19. Interpretation: As other causes of mortality are addressed, inadequate progress in reducing transport and unintentional injury mortality as a proportion of adolescent deaths becomes apparent. The relative shift in the burden of injury from high-SDI countries to low and low–middle-SDI countries necessitates focused action, including global donor, government, and industry investment in injury prevention. The persisting burden of DALYs related to transport and unintentional injuries indicates a need to prioritise innovative measures for the primary prevention of adolescent injury. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC