Climate change impact on thunderstorms: Using high-resolution COSMO-CLM simulations to determine changes in thunderstorm occurrences

KlimawandelIt is generally assumed that temperature increase associated with global climate change will lead to increased thunderstorm intensity and associated heavy precipitation events. In the present study it is investigated whether the frequency of thunderstorm occurrences will in- or decrease and how the spatial distribution will change for the A1B scenario for mid-Europe. Hourly model data of the COSMO-CLM is used with a horizontal resolution of 0.04°(~4.5km) for mid-Europe. The simulations were carried out for two different periods: 1971-2000 (C20) and 2071-2100 (A1B). The two-step nesting chain starts with a CCLM run with 18km resolution covering whole Europe nested in ECHAM5 runs, then a run with a resolution of 4.4km has been performed for mid-Europe. Thunderstorm indices are applied to detect potential thunderstorms and differences in their frequency of occurrence in this periods. The indices used are CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), SLI (Surface Lifted Index), and TSP (Thunderstorm Severity Potential), which combines deep-layer-shear and the maximum vertical velocity. The significance of a potential climate signal was tested with a t-test and a power analysis was performed to quantify the uncertainty of the signal. The focus of this study is the Saar-Lor-Lux region (Saarland, Lorraine, Luxembourg). The investigation of the present and future thunderstorms shows that the regional averaged frequencies will decrease in general, but several regions like the Saarland and especially elevated areas will have a potential increase in thunderstorm occurrences and intensity. Statistically, regions of the Alps, the Netherlands and Belgium show significant climate signals. The power analysis yields low power to detect changes of severe thunderstorms but high power for classes with no to light thunderstorms. In conclusion, our study shows that the frequency of severe thunderstorm is not likely to increase during the next century

Extreme Warming in the Kara Sea and Barents Sea during the Winter Period 2000–16

The regional climate model COSMOin Climate Limited-AreaMode (COSMO-CLM or CCLM) is used with a high resolution of 15km for the entire Arctic for all winters 2002/03–2014/15. The simulations show a high spatial and temporal variability of the recent 2-m air temperature increase in the Arctic. The maximum warming occurs north of Novaya Zemlya in the Kara Sea and Barents Sea between March 2003 and 2012 and is responsible for up to a 208C increase. Land-based observations confirm the increase but do not cover the maximum regions that are located over the ocean and sea ice.Also, the 30-km version of theArctic SystemReanalysis (ASR) is used to verify the CCLM for the overlapping time period 2002/03–2011/12. The differences between CCLM and ASR 2-m air temperatures vary slightly within 18C for the ocean and sea ice area. Thus,ASR captures the extreme warming as well. The monthly 2-m air temperatures of observations and ERA-Interim data show a large variability for the winters 1979–2016. Nevertheless, the air temperature rise since the beginning of the twenty-first century is up to 8 times higher than in the decades before. The sea ice decrease is identified as the likely reason for the warming. The vertical temperature profiles show that the warming has a maximum near the surface, but a 0.58Cyr21 increase is found up to 2 km. CCLM, ASR, and also the coarser resolved ERA-Interim data show that February and March are the months with the highest 2-m air temperature increases, averaged over the ocean and sea ice area north of 708N; for CCLM the warming amounts to an average of almost 58C for 2002/03–2011/12

Impact of the horizontal resolution on the simulation of extremes

The simulation of extremes using climate models is still a challenging task. Currently, the model grid horizontal resolution of state-of-the art regional climate models (RCMs) is about 11–25 km, which may still be too coarse to represent local extremes realistically. In this study we use dynamically downscaled ERA-40 reanalysis data of the RCM COSMO-CLM at 18 km resolution, downscale it dynamically further to 4.5 km and finally to 1.3 km to investigate the impact of the horizontal resolution on extremes. Extremes are estimated as return levels for the 2, 5 and 10‑year return periods using ‘peaks-over-threshold’ (POT) models. Daily return levels are calculated for precipitation and maximum 2 m temperature in summer as well as precipitation and 2 m minimum temperature in winter. The results show that CCLM is able to capture the spatial and temporal structure of the observed extremes, except for summer precipitation extremes. Furthermore, the spatial variability of the return levels increases with resolution. This effect is more distinct in case of temperature extremes due to a higher correlation with the better resolved orography. This dependency increases with increasing horizontal resolution. In comparison to observations, the spatial variability of temperature extremes is better simulated at a resolution of 1.3 km, but the return levels are cold-biased in summer and warm-biased in winter. Regarding precipitation, the spatial variability improves as well, although the return levels were slightly overestimated in summer by all CCLM simulations. In summary, the results indicate that an increase of the horizontal resolution of CCLM does have a significant effect on the simulation of extremes and that impact models and assessment studies may benefit from such high-resolution model output

Impact of increased resolution on long-standing biases in HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA climate models

We examine the influence of increased resolution on four long-standing biases using five different climate models developed within the PRIMAVERA project. The biases are the warm eastern tropical oceans, the double Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the warm Southern Ocean, and the cold North Atlantic. Atmosphere resolution increases from ∼100–200 to ∼25–50 km, and ocean resolution increases from (eddy-parametrized) to (eddy-present). For one model, ocean resolution also reaches ∘ (eddy-rich). The ensemble mean and individual fully coupled general circulation models and their atmosphere-only versions are compared with satellite observations and the ERA5 reanalysis over the period 1980–2014. The four studied biases appear in all the low-resolution coupled models to some extent, although the Southern Ocean warm bias is the least persistent across individual models. In the ensemble mean, increased resolution reduces the surface warm bias and the associated cloud cover and precipitation biases over the eastern tropical oceans, particularly over the tropical South Atlantic. Linked to this and to the improvement in the precipitation distribution over the western tropical Pacific, the double-ITCZ bias is also reduced with increased resolution. The Southern Ocean warm bias increases or remains unchanged at higher resolution, with small reductions in the regional cloud cover and net cloud radiative effect biases. The North Atlantic cold bias is also reduced at higher resolution, albeit at the expense of a new warm bias that emerges in the Labrador Sea related to excessive ocean deep mixing in the region, especially in the ORCA025 ocean model. Overall, the impact of increased resolution on the surface temperature biases is model-dependent in the coupled models. In the atmosphere-only models, increased resolution leads to very modest or no reduction in the studied biases. Thus, both the coupled and atmosphere-only models still show large biases in tropical precipitation and cloud cover, and in midlatitude zonal winds at higher resolutions, with little change in their global biases for temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, and net cloud radiative effect. Our analysis finds no clear reductions in the studied biases due to the increase in atmosphere resolution up to 25–50 km, in ocean resolution up to 0.25∘, or in both. Our study thus adds to evidence that further improved model physics, tuning, and even finer resolutions might be necessary.This research has been supported by the Horizon2020 project PRIMAVERA (H2020 GA 641727) and IS-ENES3 (H2020 GA 824084). Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro acknowledges funding from the Spanish Science and Innovation Ministry (Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación) via the STREAM project (PID2020-114746GB-I00) and from the ESA contract CMUG-CCI3-TECHPROP. Etienne Tourigny has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement no. 748750 (SPFireSD project).Peer Reviewed"Article signat per 13 autors/es: Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Louis-Philippe Caron, Saskia Loosveldt Tomas, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Oliver Gutjahr, Marie-Pierre Moine, Dian Putrasahan, Christopher D. Roberts, Malcolm J. Roberts, Retish Senan, Laurent Terray, Etienne Tourigny, and Pier Luigi Vidale"Postprint (published version

Deep mixed ocean volume in the Labrador Sea in HighResMIP models

Simulations from seven global coupled climate models performed at high and standard resolution as part of the high resolution model intercomparison project (HighResMIP) are analyzed to study deep ocean mixing in the Labrador Sea and the impact of increased horizontal resolution. The representation of convection varies strongly among models. Compared to observations from ARGO-floats and the EN4 data set, most models substantially overestimate deep convection in the Labrador Sea. In four out of five models, all four using the NEMO-ocean model, increasing the ocean resolution from 1° to 1/4° leads to increased deep mixing in the Labrador Sea. Increasing the atmospheric resolution has a smaller effect than increasing the ocean resolution. Simulated convection in the Labrador Sea is mainly governed by the release of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere and by the vertical stratification of the water masses in the Labrador Sea in late autumn. Models with stronger sub-polar gyre circulation have generally higher surface salinity in the Labrador Sea and a deeper convection. While the high-resolution models show more realistic ocean stratification in the Labrador Sea than the standard resolution models, they generally overestimate the convection. The results indicate that the representation of sub-grid scale mixing processes might be imperfect in the models and contribute to the biases in deep convection. Since in more than half of the models, the Labrador Sea convection is important for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), this raises questions about the future behavior of the AMOC in the models

Sensitivity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to model resolution in CMIP6 HighResMIP simulations and implications for future changes

A multi‐model, multi‐resolution ensemble using CMIP6 HighResMIP coupled experiments is used to assess the performance of key aspects of the North Atlantic circulation. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and related heat transport, tends to become stronger as ocean model resolution is enhanced, better agreeing with observations at 26.5°N. However for most models the circulation remains too shallow compared to observations, and has a smaller temperature contrast between the northward and southward limbs of the AMOC. These biases cause the northward heat transport to be systematically too low for a given overturning strength. The higher resolution models also tend to have too much deep mixing in the subpolar gyre. In the period 2015‐2050 the overturning circulation tends to decline more rapidly in the higher resolution models, which is related to both the mean state and to the subpolar gyre contribution to deep water formation. The main part of the decline comes from the Florida Current component of the circulation. Such large declines in AMOC are not seen in the models with resolutions more typically used for climate studies, suggesting an enhanced risk for Northern Hemisphere climate change. However, only a small number of different ocean models are included in the study

Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in the PRIMAVERA coupled climate simulations: impact of resolution and mean state biases on model performance

Recently, much attention has been devoted to better understand the internal modes of variability of the climate system. This is particularly important in mid-latitude regions like the North-Atlantic, which is characterized by a large natural variability and is intrinsically difficult to predict. A suitable framework for studying the modes of variability of the atmospheric circulation is to look for recurrent patterns, commonly referred to as Weather Regimes. Each regime is characterized by a specific large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern, thus influencing regional weather and extremes over Europe. The focus of the present paper is the study of the Euro-Atlantic wintertime Weather Regimes in the climate models participating to the PRIMAVERA project. We analyse here the set of coupled historical simulations (hist-1950), which have been performed both at standard and increased resolution, following the HighresMIP protocol. The models’ performance in reproducing the observed Weather Regimes is assessed in terms of different metrics, focussing on systematic biases and on the impact of resolution. We also analyse the connection of the Weather Regimes with the Jet Stream latitude and blocking frequency over the North-Atlantic sector. We find that—for most models—the regime patterns are better represented in the higher resolution version, for all regimes but the NAO-. On the other side, no clear impact of resolution is seen on the regime frequency of occurrence and persistence. Also, for most models, the regimes tend to be more tightly clustered in the increased resolution simulations, more closely resembling the observed ones. However, the horizontal resolution is not the only factor determining the model performance, and we find some evidence that biases in the SSTs and mean geopotential field might also play a role

Campanian-Maastrichtian ocean circulation in the tropical Pacific

The Pacific Ocean is the largest water body on Earth, and circulation in the Pacific contributed significantly to climate evolution in the latest Cretaceous, the culmination of a period of long-term cooling. Here, we present new high-resolution late Campanian to Maastrichtian benthic and planktic foraminiferal stable isotope data and a neodymium (Nd) isotope record obtained from sedimentary ferromanganese oxide coatings of Ocean Drilling Program Hole 1210B from the tropical Pacific Ocean (Shatsky Rise). These new records resolve 13 million years in the latest Cretaceous, providing insights into changes in surface and bottom water temperatures and source regions of deep to intermediate waters covering the carbon isotope excursions of the Campanian-Maastrichtian Boundary Event (CMBE) and the Mid-Maastrichtian event (MME). Our new benthic foraminiferal δ18O and Nd isotope records together with published Nd isotope data show markedly parallel trends across the studied interval over a broad range of bathyal to abyssal water depths interpreted to reflect changes in the intensity of deep-ocean circulation in the tropical Pacific. In particular, we observe a three-million-year-long period of cooler conditions in the early Maastrichtian (72.5 to 69.5 Ma) when a concomitant change toward less radiogenic seawater Nd isotope signatures probably marks a period of enhanced admixture and northward flow of deep waters with Southern Ocean provenance. We suggest this change to have been triggered by intensified formation and convection of deep waters in the high southern latitudes, a process that weakened during the MME (69.5 to 68.5 Ma). The early Maastrichtian cold interval is closely related to the negative and positive carbon isotope trends of the CMBE and MME. The millions-of-years long duration of these carbon cycle perturbations suggests a tectonic forcing of climatic cooling, possibly related to changes in ocean basin geometry and bathymetry

Efficient nonlinear predictive error variance for highly parameterized models

Predictive error variance analysis attempts to determine how wrong predictions made by a calibrated model may be. Predictive error variance analysis is usually undertaken following calibration using a small number of parameters defined through a priori parsimony. In contrast, we introduce a method for investigating the potential error in predictions made by highly parameterized models calibrated using regularized inversion. Vecchia and Cooley (1987) describe a method of predictive error variance analysis that is constrained by calibration data. We extend this approach to include constraints on parameters that lie within the calibration null space. These constraints are determined by dividing parameter space into combinations of parameters for which estimates can be obtained and those for which they cannot. This enables the contribution to predictive error variance from parameterization simplifications required to solve the inverse problem to be quantified, in addition to the contribution from measurement noise. We also describe a novel technique that restricts the analysis to a strategically defined predictive solution subspace, enabling an approximate predictive error variance analysis to be completed efficiently. The method is illustrated using a synthetic and a real-world groundwater flow and transport model

Analysis of thermal conductance of ballistic point contacts

Substantial reduction of thermal conductance (Kph) was recently reported for air gap heterostructures (AGHs) in which two bulk layers were connected by low-density nanopillars. We analyze Kph using a full phonon dispersion and including important phonon scattering. We find a transition from ballistic at low temperatures to quasi-ballistic transport near room temperature and explain the slow roll-off in Kph that occurs near room temperature. We show that the density of nanopillars deduced from the analysis depends strongly on the phonon dispersion assumed. Our model provides a good agreement with experiment that will be necessary to design AGHs for thermoelectric application