A splitting approach for freezing waves

We present a numerical method which is able to approximate traveling waves (e.g. viscous profiles) in systems with hyperbolic and parabolic parts by a direct long-time forward simulation. A difficulty with long-time simulations of traveling waves is that the solution leaves any bounded computational domain in finite time. To handle this problem one should go into a suitable co-moving frame. Since the velocity of the wave is typically unknown, we use the method of freezing [2], see also [1], which transforms the original partial differential equation (PDE) into a partial differential algebraic equation (PDAE) and calculates a suitable co-moving frame on the fly. The efficient numerical approximation of this freezing PDAE is a challenging problem and we introduce a new numerical discretization, suitable for problems that consist of hyperbolic conservation laws which are (nonlinearly) coupled to parabolic equations. The idea of our scheme is to use the operator splitting approach. The benefit of splitting methods in this context lies in the possibility to solve hyperbolic and parabolic parts with different numerical algorithms. We test our method at the (viscous) Burgers’ equation. Numerical experiments show linear and quadratic convergence rates for the approximation of the numerical steady state obtained by a long-time simulation for Lie- and Strang-splitting respectively. Due to these affirmative results we expect our scheme to be suitable also for freezing waves in hyperbolic-parabolic coupled PDEs

Utility of natural and artificial geochemical tracers for leakage monitoring and quantification during an offshore controlled CO2 release experiment

To inform cost-effective monitoring of offshore geological storage of carbon dioxide (CO2), a unique field experiment, designed to simulate leakage of CO2 from a sub-seafloor storage reservoir, was carried out in the central North Sea. A total of 675 kg of CO2 were released into the shallow sediments (∼3 m below seafloor) for 11 days at flow rates between 6 and 143 kg d-1. A set of natural, inherent tracers (13C, 18O) of injected CO2 and added, non-toxic tracer gases (octafluoropropane, sulfur hexafluoride, krypton, methane) were used to test their applicability for CO2 leakage attribution and quantification in the marine environment. All tracers except 18O were capable of attributing the CO2 source. Tracer analyses indicate that CO2 dissolution in sediment pore waters ranged from 35 % at the lowest injection rate to 41% at the highest injection rate. Direct measurements of gas released from the sediment into the water column suggest that 22 % to 48 % of the injected CO2 exited the seafloor at, respectively, the lowest and the highest injection rate. The remainder of injected CO2 accumulated in gas pockets in the sediment. The methodologies can be used to rapidly confirm the source of leaking CO2 once seabed samples are retrieved

Quantification of dissolved CO2 plumes at the Goldeneye CO2-release experiment

According to many prognostic scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a scaling-up of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) by several orders-of-magnitude is necessary to meet the target of ≤2 °C global warming by 2100 relative to preindustrial levels. Since a large fraction of the predicted CO2 storage capacity lies offshore, there is a pressing need to develop field-tested methods to detect and quantify potential leaks in the marine environment. Here, we combine field measurements with numerical models to determine the flow rate of a controlled release of CO2 in a shallow marine setting at about 119 m water depth in the North Sea. In this experiment, CO2 was injected into the sediment at 3 m depth at 143 kg d-1. The new leakage monitoring tool predicts that 91 kg d-1 of CO2 escaped across the seafloor, and that 51 kg d-1 of CO2 were retained in the sediment, in agreement with independent field estimates. The new approach relies mostly on field data collected from ship-deployed technology (towed sensors, Acoustic Doppler current profiler—ADCP), which makes it a promising tool to monitor existing and upcoming offshore CO2 storage sites and to detect and quantify potential CO2 leakage

EPIdemiology of Surgery-Associated Acute Kidney Injury (EPIS-AKI) : Study protocol for a multicentre, observational trial

More than 300 million surgical procedures are performed each year. Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication after major surgery and is associated with adverse short-term and long-term outcomes. However, there is a large variation in the incidence of reported AKI rates. The establishment of an accurate epidemiology of surgery-associated AKI is important for healthcare policy, quality initiatives, clinical trials, as well as for improving guidelines. The objective of the Epidemiology of Surgery-associated Acute Kidney Injury (EPIS-AKI) trial is to prospectively evaluate the epidemiology of AKI after major surgery using the latest Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) consensus definition of AKI. EPIS-AKI is an international prospective, observational, multicentre cohort study including 10 000 patients undergoing major surgery who are subsequently admitted to the ICU or a similar high dependency unit. The primary endpoint is the incidence of AKI within 72 hours after surgery according to the KDIGO criteria. Secondary endpoints include use of renal replacement therapy (RRT), mortality during ICU and hospital stay, length of ICU and hospital stay and major adverse kidney events (combined endpoint consisting of persistent renal dysfunction, RRT and mortality) at day 90. Further, we will evaluate preoperative and intraoperative risk factors affecting the incidence of postoperative AKI. In an add-on analysis, we will assess urinary biomarkers for early detection of AKI. EPIS-AKI has been approved by the leading Ethics Committee of the Medical Council North Rhine-Westphalia, of the Westphalian Wilhelms-University Münster and the corresponding Ethics Committee at each participating site. Results will be disseminated widely and published in peer-reviewed journals, presented at conferences and used to design further AKI-related trials. Trial registration number NCT04165369

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Towards improved monitoring of offshore carbon storage: A real-world field experiment detecting a controlled sub-seafloor CO2 release

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a key technology to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from industrial processes in a feasible, substantial, and timely manner. For geological CO2 storage to be safe, reliable, and accepted by society, robust strategies for CO2 leakage detection, quantification and management are crucial. The STEMM-CCS (Strategies for Environmental Monitoring of Marine Carbon Capture and Storage) project aimed to provide techniques and understanding to enable and inform cost-effective monitoring of CCS sites in the marine environment. A controlled CO2 release experiment was carried out in the central North Sea, designed to mimic an unintended emission of CO2 from a subsurface CO2 storage site to the seafloor. A total of 675 kg of CO2 were released into the shallow sediments (∼3 m below seafloor), at flow rates between 6 and 143 kg/d. A combination of novel techniques, adapted versions of existing techniques, and well-proven standard techniques were used to detect, characterise and quantify gaseous and dissolved CO2 in the sediments and the overlying seawater. This paper provides an overview of this ambitious field experiment. We describe the preparatory work prior to the release experiment, the experimental layout and procedures, the methods tested, and summarise the main results and the lessons learnt

Network meta‐analysis: methodological points for readers, authors and reviewers

International audienc