Asynchronous Carbon Sink Saturation in African and Amazonian Tropical Forests

Structurally intact tropical forests sequestered ~50% of global terrestrial carbon uptake over the 1990s and early 2000s, removing ~15% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions(1-3). Climate-driven vegetation models typically predict that this tropical forest ‘carbon sink’ will continue for decades(4,5). Here, we assess trends in the carbon sink using 244 structurally intact African tropical forests spanning 11 countries, we compare them with 321 published plots from Amazonia and investigate the underlying drivers of the trends. The carbon sink in live aboveground biomass in intact African tropical forests has been stable for the three decades to 2015, at 0.66 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 (95% CI:0.53-0.79), in contrast to the long-term decline in Amazonian forests(6). Thus, the carbon sink responses of Earth’s two largest expanses of tropical forest have diverged. The difference is largely driven by carbon losses from tree mortality, with no detectable multi-decadal trend in Africa and a long-term increase in Amazonia. Both continents show increasing tree growth, consistent with the expected net effect of rising atmospheric CO2 and air temperature(7-9). Despite the past stability of the African carbon sink, our data suggest a post-2010 increase in carbon losses, delayed compared to Amazonia, indicating asynchronous carbon sink saturation on the two continents. A statistical model including CO2, temperature, drought and forest dynamics accounts for the observed trends and indicates a long-term future decline in the African sink, while the Amazonian sink continues to rapidly weaken. Overall, the uptake of carbon into Earth’s intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s. Given that the global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing in size, observations indicating greater recent carbon uptake into the Northern hemisphere landmass(10) reinforce our conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already saturated. This tropical forest sink saturation and ongoing decline has consequences for policies to stabilise Earth’s climate

Consistent patterns of common species across tropical tree communities

Trees structure the Earth’s most biodiverse ecosystem, tropical forests. The vast number of tree species presents a formidable challenge to understanding these forests, including their response to environmental change, as very little is known about most tropical tree species. A focus on the common species may circumvent this challenge. Here we investigate abundance patterns of common tree species using inventory data on 1,003,805 trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm across 1,568 locations1,2,3,4,5,6 in closed-canopy, structurally intact old-growth tropical forests in Africa, Amazonia and Southeast Asia. We estimate that 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.3% of species comprise 50% of the tropical trees in these regions, respectively. Extrapolating across all closed-canopy tropical forests, we estimate that just 1,053 species comprise half of Earth’s 800 billion tropical trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm. Despite differing biogeographic, climatic and anthropogenic histories7, we find notably consistent patterns of common species and species abundance distributions across the continents. This suggests that fundamental mechanisms of tree community assembly may apply to all tropical forests. Resampling analyses show that the most common species are likely to belong to a manageable list of known species, enabling targeted efforts to understand their ecology. Although they do not detract from the importance of rare species, our results open new opportunities to understand the world’s most diverse forests, including modelling their response to environmental change, by focusing on the common species that constitute the majority of their trees

Consistent patterns of common species across tropical tree communities

D.L.M.C. was supported by the London Natural Environmental Research Council Doctoral Training Partnership grant (grant no. NE/L002485/1). This paper developed from analysing data from the African Tropical Rainforest Observatory Network (AfriTRON), curated at ForestPlots.net. AfriTRON has been supported by numerous people and grants since its inception. We sincerely thank the people of the many villages and local communities who welcomed our field teams and without whose support this work would not have been possible. Grants that have funded the AfriTRON network, including data in this paper, are a European Research Council Advanced Grant (T-FORCES; 291585; Tropical Forests in the Changing Earth System), a NERC standard grant (NER/A/S/2000/01002), a Royal Society University Research Fellowship to S.L.L., a NERC New Investigators Grant to S.L.L., a Philip Leverhulme Award to S.L.L., a European Union FP7 grant (GEOCARBON; 283080), Leverhulme Program grant (Valuing the Arc); a NERC Consortium Grant (TROBIT; NE/D005590/), NERC Large Grant (CongoPeat; NE/R016860/1) the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation the David and Lucile Packard Foundation, the Centre for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), and Gabon’s National Parks Agency (ANPN). This paper was supported by ForestPlots.net approved Research Project 81, ‘Comparative Ecology of African Tropical Forests’. The development of ForestPlots.net and data curation has been funded by several grants, including NE/B503384/1, NE/N012542/1, ERC Advanced Grant 291585—‘T-FORCES’, NE/F005806/1, NERC New Investigators Awards, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, a Royal Society University Research Fellowship and a Leverhulme Trust Research Fellowship. Fieldwork in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (Yangambi and Yoko sites) was funded by the Belgian Science Policy Office BELSPO (SD/AR/01A/COBIMFO, BR/132/A1/AFRIFORD, BR/143/A3/HERBAXYLAREDD, FED-tWIN2019-prf-075/CongoFORCE, EF/211/TREE4FLUX); by the Flemish Interuniversity Council VLIR-UOS (CD2018TEA459A103, FORMONCO II); by L’Académie de recherche et d’enseignement supérieur ARES (AFORCO project) and by the European Union through the FORETS project (Formation, Recherche, Environnement dans la TShopo) supported by the XIth European Development Fund. EMV was supported by fellowship from the CNPq (Grant 308543/2021-1). RAPELD plots in Brazil were supported by the Program for Biodiversity Research (PPBio) and the National Institute for Amazonian Biodiversity (INCT-CENBAM). BGL post-doc grant no. 2019/03379-4, São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP). D.A.C. was supported by the CCI Collaborative fund. Plots in Mato Grosso, Brazil, were supported by the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq), PELD-TRAN 441244/2016-5 and 441572/2020-0, and Mato Grosso State Research Support Foundation (FAPEMAT)—0346321/2021. We thank E. Chezeaux, R. Condit, W. J. Eggeling, R. M. Ewers, O. J. Hardy, P. Jeanmart, K. L. Khoon, J. L. Lloyd, A. Marjokorpi, W. Marthy, H. Ntahobavuka, D. Paget, J. T. A. Proctor, R. P. Salomão, P. Saner, S. Tan, C. O. Webb, H. Woell and N. Zweifel for contributing forest inventory data. We thank numerous field assistants for their invaluable contributions to the collection of forest inventory data, including A. Nkwasibwe, ITFC field assistant.Peer reviewe

The global abundance of tree palms

Aim: Palms are an iconic, diverse and often abundant component of tropical ecosys-tems that provide many ecosystem services. Being monocots, tree palms are evo-lutionarily, morphologically and physiologically distinct from other trees, and these differences have important consequences for ecosystem services (e.g., carbon se-questration and storage) and in terms of responses to climate change. We quanti-fied global patterns of tree palm relative abundance to help improve understanding of tropical forests and reduce uncertainty about these ecosystems under climate change.Location: Tropical and subtropical moist forests.Time period: Current.Major taxa studied: Palms (Arecaceae).Methods: We assembled a pantropical dataset of 2,548 forest plots (covering 1,191 ha) and quantified tree palm (i.e., ≥10 cm diameter at breast height) abundance relative to co-occurring non-palm trees. We compared the relative abundance of tree palms across biogeographical realms and tested for associations with palaeoclimate stability, current climate, edaphic conditions and metrics of forest structure.Results: On average, the relative abundance of tree palms was more than five times larger between Neotropical locations and other biogeographical realms. Tree palms were absent in most locations outside the Neotropics but present in >80% of Neotropical locations. The relative abundance of tree palms was more strongly asso-ciated with local conditions (e.g., higher mean annual precipitation, lower soil fertility, shallower water table and lower plot mean wood density) than metrics of long-term climate stability. Life-form diversity also influenced the patterns; palm assemblages outside the Neotropics comprise many non-tree (e.g., climbing) palms. Finally, we show that tree palms can influence estimates of above-ground biomass, but the mag-nitude and direction of the effect require additional work.Conclusions: Tree palms are not only quintessentially tropical, but they are also over-whelmingly Neotropical. Future work to understand the contributions of tree palms to biomass estimates and carbon cycling will be particularly crucial in Neotropical forests

The Forest Observation System, building a global reference dataset for remote sensing of forest biomass

International audienceForest biomass is an essential indicator for monitoring the Earth's ecosystems and climate. It is a critical input to greenhouse gas accounting, estimation of carbon losses and forest degradation, assessment of renewable energy potential, and for developing climate change mitigation policies such as REDD+, among others. Wall-to-wall mapping of aboveground biomass (aGB) is now possible with satellite remote sensing (RS). However, RS methods require extant, up-to-date, reliable, representative and comparable in situ data for calibration and validation. Here, we present the Forest Observation System (FOS) initiative, an international cooperation to establish and maintain a global in situ forest biomass database. aGB and canopy height estimates with their associated uncertainties are derived at a 0.25 ha scale from field measurements made in permanent research plots across the world's forests. all plot estimates are geolocated and have a size that allows for direct comparison with many RS measurements. The FOS offers the potential to improve the accuracy of RS-based biomass products while developing new synergies between the RS and ground-based ecosystem research communities

Height-diameter allometry of tropical forest trees

Tropical tree height-diameter (H:D) relationships may vary by forest type and region making large-scale estimates of above-ground biomass subject to bias if they ignore these differences in stem allometry. We have therefore developed a new global tropical forest database consisting of 39 955 concurrent H and D measurements encompassing 283 sites in 22 tropical countries. Utilising this database, our objectives were: 1. to determine if H:D relationships differ by geographic region and forest type (wet to dry forests, including zones of tension where forest and savanna overlap). 2. to ascertain if the H:D relationship is modulated by climate and/or forest structural characteristics (e.g. stand-level basal area, A). 3. to develop H:D allometric equations and evaluate biases to reduce error in future local-to-global estimates of tropical forest biomass. Annual precipitation coefficient of variation (PV), dry season length (SD), and mean annual air temperature (TA) emerged as key drivers of variation in H:D relationships at the pantropical and region scales. Vegetation structure also played a role with trees in forests of a high A being, on average, taller at any given D. After the effects of environment and forest structure are taken into account, two main regional groups can be identified. Forests in Asia, Africa and the Guyana Shield all have, on average, similar H:D relationships, but with trees in the forests of much of the Amazon Basin and tropical Australia typically being shorter at any given D than their counterparts elsewhere. The region-environment-structure model with the lowest Akaike's information criterion and lowest deviation estimated stand-level H across all plots to within amedian −2.7 to 0.9% of the true value. Some of the plot-to-plot variability in H:D relationships not accounted for by this model could be attributed to variations in soil physical conditions. Other things being equal, trees tend to be more slender in the absence of soil physical constraints, especially at smaller D. Pantropical and continental-level models provided less robust estimates of H, especially when the roles of climate and stand structure in modulating H:D allometry were not simultaneously taken into account. © 2011 Author(s)

Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests

The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (−9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth’s climate

Pantropical variability in tree crown allometry

Aim Tree crowns determine light interception, carbon and water exchange. Thus, understanding the factors causing tree crown allometry to vary at the tree and stand level matters greatly for the development of future vegetation modelling and for the calibration of remote sensing products. Nevertheless, we know little about large‐scale variation and determinants in tropical tree crown allometry. In this study, we explored the continental variation in scaling exponents of site‐specific crown allometry and assessed their relationships with environmental and stand‐level variables in the tropics. Location Global tropics. Time period Early 21st century. Major taxa studied Woody plants. Methods Using a dataset of 87,737 trees distributed among 245 forest and savanna sites across the tropics, we fitted site‐specific allometric relationships between crown dimensions (crown depth, diameter and volume) and stem diameter using power‐law models. Stand‐level and environmental drivers of crown allometric relationships were assessed at pantropical and continental scales. Results The scaling exponents of allometric relationships between stem diameter and crown dimensions were higher in savannas than in forests. We identified that continental crown models were better than pantropical crown models and that continental differences in crown allometric relationships were driven by both stand‐level (wood density) and environmental (precipitation, cation exchange capacity and soil texture) variables for both tropical biomes. For a given diameter, forest trees from Asia and savanna trees from Australia had smaller crown dimensions than trees in Africa and America, with crown volumes for some Asian forest trees being smaller than those of trees in African forests. Main conclusions Our results provide new insight into geographical variability, with large continental differences in tropical tree crown allometry that were driven by stand‐level and environmental variables. They have implications for the assessment of ecosystem function and for the monitoring of woody biomass by remote sensing techniques in the global tropics

The global abundance of tree palms

Aim Palms are an iconic, diverse and often abundant component of tropical ecosystems that provide many ecosystem services. Being monocots, tree palms are evolutionarily, morphologically and physiologically distinct from other trees, and these differences have important consequences for ecosystem services (e.g., carbon sequestration and storage) and in terms of responses to climate change. We quantified global patterns of tree palm relative abundance to help improve understanding of tropical forests and reduce uncertainty about these ecosystems under climate change. Location Tropical and subtropical moist forests. Time period Current. Major taxa studied Palms (Arecaceae). Methods We assembled a pantropical dataset of 2,548 forest plots (covering 1,191 ha) and quantified tree palm (i.e., ≥10 cm diameter at breast height) abundance relative to co‐occurring non‐palm trees. We compared the relative abundance of tree palms across biogeographical realms and tested for associations with palaeoclimate stability, current climate, edaphic conditions and metrics of forest structure. Results On average, the relative abundance of tree palms was more than five times larger between Neotropical locations and other biogeographical realms. Tree palms were absent in most locations outside the Neotropics but present in >80% of Neotropical locations. The relative abundance of tree palms was more strongly associated with local conditions (e.g., higher mean annual precipitation, lower soil fertility, shallower water table and lower plot mean wood density) than metrics of long‐term climate stability. Life‐form diversity also influenced the patterns; palm assemblages outside the Neotropics comprise many non‐tree (e.g., climbing) palms. Finally, we show that tree palms can influence estimates of above‐ground biomass, but the magnitude and direction of the effect require additional work. Conclusions Tree palms are not only quintessentially tropical, but they are also overwhelmingly Neotropical. Future work to understand the contributions of tree palms to biomass estimates and carbon cycling will be particularly crucial in Neotropical forests

Consistent patterns of common species across tropical tree communities

Trees structure the Earth’s most biodiverse ecosystem, tropical forests. The vast number of tree species presents a formidable challenge to understanding these forests, including their response to environmental change, as very little is known about most tropical tree species. A focus on the common species may circumvent this challenge. Here we investigate abundance patterns of common tree species using inventory data on 1,003,805 trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm across 1,568 locations1,2,3,4,5,6 in closed-canopy, structurally intact old-growth tropical forests in Africa, Amazonia and Southeast Asia. We estimate that 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.3% of species comprise 50% of the tropical trees in these regions, respectively. Extrapolating across all closed-canopy tropical forests, we estimate that just 1,053 species comprise half of Earth’s 800 billion tropical trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm. Despite differing biogeographic, climatic and anthropogenic histories7, we find notably consistent patterns of common species and species abundance distributions across the continents. This suggests that fundamental mechanisms of tree community assembly may apply to all tropical forests. Resampling analyses show that the most common species are likely to belong to a manageable list of known species, enabling targeted efforts to understand their ecology. Although they do not detract from the importance of rare species, our results open new opportunities to understand the world’s most diverse forests, including modelling their response to environmental change, by focusing on the common species that constitute the majority of their trees.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe