The False Economy of Seeking to Eliminate Delayed Transfers of Care: Some Lessons from Queueing Theory

This is the final version. Available on open access from Springer via the DOI in this recordBackground It is a stated ambition of many healthcare systems to eliminate delayed transfers of care (DTOCs) between acute and step-down community services. Objective This study aims to demonstrate how, counter to intuition, pursual of such a policy is likely to be uneconomical, as it would require large amounts of community capacity to accommodate even the rarest of demand peaks, leaving much capacity unused for much of the time. Methods Some standard results from queueing theory—a mathematical discipline for considering the dynamics of queues and queueing systems—are used to provide a model of patient flow from the acute to community setting. While queueing models have a track record of application in healthcare, they have not before been used to address this question. Results Results show that ‘eliminating’ DTOCs is a false economy: the additional community costs required are greater than the possible acute cost saving. While a substantial proportion of DTOCs can be attributed to inefficient use of resources, the remainder can be considered economically essential to ensuring cost-efficient service operation. For England’s National Health Service (NHS), our modelling estimates annual cost savings of £117m if DTOCs are reduced to the 12% of current levels that can be regarded as economically essential. Conclusion This study discourages the use of ‘zero DTOC’ targets and instead supports an assessment based on the specific characteristics of the healthcare system considered.Health Data Research U

Missense Mutations in the MEFV Gene Are Associated with Fibromyalgia Syndrome and Correlate with Elevated IL-1β Plasma Levels

BACKGROUND:Fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS), a common, chronic, widespread musculoskeletal pain disorder found in 2% of the general population and with a preponderance of 85% in females, has both genetic and environmental contributions. Patients and their parents have high plasma levels of the chemokines MCP-1 and eotaxin, providing evidence for both a genetic and an immunological/inflammatory origin for the syndrome (Zhang et al., 2008, Exp. Biol. Med. 233: 1171-1180). METHODS AND FINDINGS:In a search for a candidate gene affecting inflammatory pathways, among five screened in our patient samples (100 probands with FMS and their parents), we found 10 rare and one common alleles for MEFV, a gene in which various compound heterozygous mutations lead to Familial Mediterranean Fever (FMF). A total of 2.63 megabases of genomic sequence of the MEFV gene were scanned by direct sequencing. The collection of rare missense mutations (all heterozygotes and tested in the aggregate) had a significant elevated frequency of transmission to affecteds (p = 0.0085, one-sided, exact binomial test). Our data provide evidence that rare missense variants of the MEFV gene are, collectively, associated with risk of FMS and are present in a subset of 15% of FMS patients. This subset had, on average, high levels of plasma IL-1beta (p = 0.019) compared to FMS patients without rare variants, unaffected family members with or without rare variants, and unrelated controls of unknown genotype. IL-1beta is a cytokine associated with the function of the MEFV gene and thought to be responsible for its symptoms of fever and muscle aches. CONCLUSIONS:Since misregulation of IL-1beta expression has been predicted for patients with mutations in the MEFV gene, we conclude that patients heterozygous for rare missense variants of this gene may be predisposed to FMS, possibly triggered by environmental factors

Consistency of impact assessment protocols for non-native species

Standardized tools are needed to identify and prioritize the most harmful non-native species (NNS). A plethora of assessment protocols have been developed to evaluate the current and potential impacts of non-native species, but consistency among them has received limited attention. To estimate the consistency across impact assessment protocols, 89 specialists in biological invasions used 11 protocols to screen 57 NNS (2614 assessments). We tested if the consistency in the impact scoring across assessors, quantified as the coefficient of variation (CV), was dependent on the characteristics of the protocol, the taxonomic group and the expertise of the assessor. Mean CV across assessors was 40%, with a maximum of 223%. CV was lower for protocols with a low number of score levels, which demanded high levels of expertise, and when the assessors had greater expertise on the assessed species. The similarity among protocols with respect to the final scores was higher when the protocols considered the same impact types. We conclude that all protocols led to considerable inconsistency among assessors. In order to improve consistency, we highlight the importance of selecting assessors with high expertise, providing clear guidelines and adequate training but also deriving final decisions collaboratively by consensus

Dislexia e ensino-aprendizagem de língua portuguesa : um estudo de caso

Monografia (graduação)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Letras, 2013.Esta pesquisa trata da dislexia e do ensino-aprendizagem de Língua Portuguesa para disléxicos, com base em um estudo de caso com estudante disléxico da rede pública de ensino do Plano Piloto. Dentre as questões abordadas, estão as definições da dislexia, seus tipos e possíveis tratamentos, além da discussão do espaço que tal distúrbio de aprendizagem tem na educação, a sugestão de inclusão da dislexia na Educação Especial e, consequentemente, nas salas de recursos e a adequação da metodologia de ensino, baseada na exploração dos gêneros textuais e dos multiletramentos, dentro da perspectiva Sociointeracionista de Vygotsky e da proposta de professor libertador, de Paulo Freire

Analysis of the common genetic component of large-vessel vasculitides through a meta- Immunochip strategy

Giant cell arteritis (GCA) and Takayasu's arteritis (TAK) are major forms of large-vessel vasculitis (LVV) that share clinical features. To evaluate their genetic similarities, we analysed Immunochip genotyping data from 1,434 LVV patients and 3,814 unaffected controls. Genetic pleiotropy was also estimated. The HLA region harboured the main disease-specific associations. GCA was mostly associated with class II genes (HLA-DRB1/HLA-DQA1) whereas TAK was mostly associated with class I genes (HLA-B/MICA). Both the statistical significance and effect size of the HLA signals were considerably reduced in the cross-disease meta-analysis in comparison with the analysis of GCA and TAK separately. Consequently, no significant genetic correlation between these two diseases was observed when HLA variants were tested. Outside the HLA region, only one polymorphism located nearby the IL12B gene surpassed the study-wide significance threshold in the meta-analysis of the discovery datasets (rs755374, P?=?7.54E-07; ORGCA?=?1.19, ORTAK?=?1.50). This marker was confirmed as novel GCA risk factor using four additional cohorts (PGCA?=?5.52E-04, ORGCA?=?1.16). Taken together, our results provide evidence of strong genetic differences between GCA and TAK in the HLA. Outside this region, common susceptibility factors were suggested, especially within the IL12B locus

Observation of a new Xi(b) baryon

The first observation of a new b baryon via its strong decay into Xi(b)^- pi^+ (plus charge conjugates) is reported. The measurement uses a data sample of pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5.3 inverse femtobarns. The known Xi(b)^- baryon is reconstructed via the decay chain Xi(b)^- to J/psi Xi^- to mu^+ mu^- Lambda^0 pi^-, with Lambda^0 to p pi^-. A peak is observed in the distribution of the difference between the mass of the Xi(b)^- pi^+ system and the sum of the masses of the Xi(b)^- and pi^+, with a significance exceeding five standard deviations. The mass difference of the peak is 14.84 +/- 0.74 (stat.) +/- 0.28 (syst.) MeV. The new state most likely corresponds to the J^P=3/2^+ companion of the Xi(b).Comment: Submitted to Physical Review Letter

Measurements of inclusive W and Z cross sections in pp collisions at root s=7 TeV

This is the pre-print version of the Published Article, which can be accessed from the link below - Copyright @ 2011 Springer VerlagMeasurements of inclusive W and Z boson production cross sections in pp collisions at sqrt(s)=7 TeV are presented, based on 2.9 inverse picobarns of data recorded by the CMS detector at the LHC. The measurements, performed in the electron and muon decay channels, are combined to give sigma(pp to WX) times B(W to muon or electron + neutrino) = 9.95 \pm 0.07(stat.) \pm 0.28(syst.) \pm 1.09(lumi.) nb and sigma(pp to ZX) times B(Z to oppositely charged muon or electron pairs) = 0.931 \pm 0.026(stat.) \pm 0.023(syst.) \pm 0.102(lumi.) nb. Theoretical predictions, calculated at the next-to-next-to-leading order in QCD using recent parton distribution functions, are in agreement with the measured cross sections. Ratios of cross sections, which incur an experimental systematic uncertainty of less than 4%, are also reported

Long-range and short-range dihadron angular correlations in central PbPb collisions at √sNN=2.76 TeV

This is the pre-print version of the Published Article, which can be accessed from the link below.First measurements of dihadron correlations for charged particles are presented for central PbPb collisions at a nucleon-nucleon center-of-mass energy of 2.76TeV over a broad range in relative pseudorapidity ( ) and the full range of relative azimuthal angle ( ). The data were collected with the CMS detector, at the LHC. A broadening of the away-side ( ) azimuthal correlation is observed at all , as compared to the measurements in pp collisions. Furthermore, long-range dihadron correlations in are observed for particles with similar values. This phenomenon, also known as the \ridge", persists up to at least j j = 4. For particles with transverse momenta (pT) of 2-4 GeV/c, the ridge is found to be most prominent when these particles are correlated with particles of pT = 2-6 GeV/c, and to be much reduced when paired with particles of pT = 10-12 GeV/c