Impact of cyclooxygenase inhibitors in the Women's Health Initiative hormone trials: secondary analysis of a randomized trial.

OBJECTIVES: We evaluated the hypothesis that cyclooxygenase (COX) inhibitor use might have counteracted a beneficial effect of postmenopausal hormone therapy, and account for the absence of cardioprotection in the Women's Health Initiative hormone trials. Estrogen increases COX expression, and inhibitors of COX such as nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory agents appear to increase coronary risk, raising the possibility of a clinically important interaction in the trials. DESIGN: The hormone trials were randomized, double-blind, and placebo-controlled. Use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs was assessed at baseline and at years 1, 3, and 6. SETTING: The Women's Health Initiative hormone trials were conducted at 40 clinical sites in the United States. PARTICIPANTS: The trials enrolled 27,347 postmenopausal women, aged 50-79 y. INTERVENTIONS: We randomized 16,608 women with intact uterus to conjugated estrogens 0.625 mg with medroxyprogesterone acetate 2.5 mg daily or to placebo, and 10,739 women with prior hysterectomy to conjugated estrogens 0.625 mg daily or placebo. OUTCOME MEASURES: Myocardial infarction, coronary death, and coronary revascularization were ascertained during 5.6 y of follow-up in the estrogen plus progestin trial and 6.8 y of follow-up in the estrogen alone trial. RESULTS: Hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals were calculated from Cox proportional hazard models stratified by COX inhibitor use. The hazard ratio for myocardial infarction/coronary death with estrogen plus progestin was 1.13 (95% confidence interval 0.68-1.89) among non-users of COX inhibitors, and 1.35 (95% confidence interval 0.86-2.10) among continuous users. The hazard ratio with estrogen alone was 0.92 (95% confidence interval 0.57-1.48) among non-users of COX inhibitors, and 1.08 (95% confidence interval 0.69-1.70) among continuous users. In a second analytic approach, hazard ratios were calculated from Cox models that included hormone trial assignment as well as a time-dependent covariate for medication use, and an interaction term. No significant interaction was identified. CONCLUSIONS: Use of COX inhibitors did not significantly affect the Women's Health Initiative hormone trial results

Colon cancer risk and different HRT formulations: a case-control study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Most studies have found no increased risk of colon cancer associated with hormone replacement therapy (HRT), or even a decreased risk. But information about the effects of different HRT preparations is lacking.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A case-control study was performed within Germany in collaboration with regional cancer registries and tumor centers. Up to 5 controls were matched to each case of colon cancer. Conditional logistic regression analysis was applied to estimate crude and adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Stratified analyses were performed to get an impression of the risk associated with different estrogens and progestins.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 354 cases of colon cancer were compared with 1422 matched controls. The adjusted overall risk estimate for colon cancer (ColC) associated with ever-use of HRT was 0.97 (0.71 – 1.32). No clinically relevant trends for ColC risk were observed with increasing duration of HRT use, or increasing time since first or last HRT use in aggregate.</p> <p>Whereas the overall risk estimates were stable, the numbers in many of the sub-analyses of HRT preparation groups (estrogens and progestins) were too small for conclusions. Nevertheless, if the ColC risk estimates are taken at face value, most seemed to be reduced compared with never-use of HRT, but did not vary much across HRT formulation subgroups. In particular, no substantial difference in ColC risk was observed between HRT-containing conjugated equine estrogens (CEE) or medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA) and other formulations more common in Europe.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Ever-use of HRT was not associated with an increased risk of colon cancer. In contrary, most risk estimates pointed non-significantly toward a lower ColC risk in HRT ever user. They did not vary markedly among different HRT formulations (estrogens, progestins). However, the small numbers and the overlapping nature of the subgroups suggest cautious interpretation.</p

Resting heart rate as a low tech predictor of coronary events in women: prospective cohort study

Objective To evaluate resting heart rate as an independent predictor of cardiovascular risk in women

The Women's international study of long-duration oestrogen after menopause (WISDOM): a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: At the time of feasibility work and final design of the trial there was no randomised control trial evidence for the long-term risks and benefits of hormone replacement therapy. Observational studies had suggested that long term use of estrogen was likely to be associated, amongst other things, with reduced risks of osteoporosis and ischaemic heart disease and increased risks of breast and endometrial cancer. Concomitant use of progestogens had been shown to protect against endometrial cancer, but there were few data showing how progestogen might affect estrogen actions on other conditions. Disease specific risks from observational studies suggested that, overall, long-term HRT was likely to be beneficial. Several studies showed that mortality from all causes was lower in HRT users than in non-users. Some secondary cardiovascular prevention trials were ongoing but evidence was also required for a range of outcomes in healthy women. The WISDOM trial was designed to compare combined estrogen and progestogen versus placebo, and estrogen alone versus combined estrogen and progestogen. During the development of WISDOM the Women's Health Initiative trial was designed, funded and started in the US. DESIGN: Randomised, placebo, controlled, trial. METHODS: The trial was set in general practices in the UK (384), Australia (94), and New Zealand (24). In these practices 284175 women aged 50–69 years were registered with 226282 potentially eligible. We sought to randomise 22300 postmenopausal women aged 50 – 69 and treat for ten years. The interventions were: conjugated equine estrogens, 0.625 mg orally daily; conjugated equine estrogens plus medroxyprogesterone acetate 2.5/5.0 mg orally daily; matched placebo. Primary outcome measures were: major cardiovascular disease, osteoporotic fractures, breast cancer and dementia. Secondary outcomes were: other cancers, all cause death, venous thromboembolism and cerebro-vascular disease. RESULTS: The trial was prematurely closed during recruitment following publication of early results from the Women's Health Initiative. At the time of closure, 56583 had been screened, 8980 entered run-in, and 5694 (26% of target of 22,300) randomised. Those women randomised had received a mean of one year of therapy, mean age was 62.8 years and total follow-up time was 6491 person years. DISCUSSION: The WISDOM experience leads to some simple messages. The larger a trial is the more simple it needs to be to ensure cost effective and timely delivery. When a trial is very costly and beyond the resources of one country, funders and investigators should make every effort to develop international collaboration with joint funding

A longitudinal analysis of the risk factors for diabetes and coronary heart disease in the Framingham Offspring Study

BACKGROUND: The recent trends in sedentary life-styles and weight gain are likely to contribute to chronic conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases. The temporal sequence and pathways underlying these conditions can be modeled using the knowledge from the biomedical and social sciences. METHODS: The Framingham Offspring Study in the U.S. collected information on 5124 subjects at baseline, and 8, 12, 16, and 20 years after the baseline. Dynamic random effects models were estimated for the subjects' weight, LDL and HDL cholesterol, and blood pressure using 4 time observations. Logistic and probit models were estimated for the probability of diabetes and coronary heart disease (CHD) events. RESULTS: The subjects' age, physical activity, alcohol consumption, and cigarettes smoked were important predictors of the risk factors. Moreover, weight and height were found to differentially affect the probabilities of diabetes and CHD events; body weight was positively associated with the risk of diabetes while taller individuals had lower risk of CHD events. CONCLUSION: The results showed the importance of joint modeling of body weight, LDL and HDL cholesterol, and blood pressure that are risk factors for diabetes and CHD events. Lower body weight and LDL concentrations and higher HDL levels achieved via physical exercise are likely to reduce diabetes and CHD events

The Next PAGE in Understanding Complex Traits: Design for the Analysis of Population Architecture Using Genetics and Epidemiology (PAGE) Study

Genetic studies have identified thousands of variants associated with complex traits. However, most association studies are limited to populations of European descent and a single phenotype. The Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) Study was initiated in 2008 by the National Human Genome Research Institute to investigate the epidemiologic architecture of well-replicated genetic variants associated with complex diseases in several large, ethnically diverse population-based studies. Combining DNA samples and hundreds of phenotypes from multiple cohorts, PAGE is well-suited to address generalization of associations and variability of effects in diverse populations; identify genetic and environmental modifiers; evaluate disease subtypes, intermediate phenotypes, and biomarkers; and investigate associations with novel phenotypes. PAGE investigators harmonize phenotypes across studies where possible and perform coordinated cohort-specific analyses and meta-analyses. PAGE researchers are genotyping thousands of genetic variants in up to 121,000 DNA samples from African-American, white, Hispanic/Latino, Asian/Pacific Islander, and American Indian participants. Initial analyses will focus on single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with obesity, lipids, cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, inflammation, various cancers, and related biomarkers. PAGE SNPs are also assessed for pleiotropy using the “phenome-wide association study” approach, testing each SNP for associations with hundreds of phenotypes. PAGE data will be deposited into the National Center for Biotechnology Information's Database of Genotypes and Phenotypes and made available via a custom browser

Reduction in saturated fat intake for cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND: Reducing saturated fat reduces serum cholesterol, but effects on other intermediate outcomes may be less clear. Additionally, it is unclear whether the energy from saturated fats eliminated from the diet are more helpfully replaced by polyunsaturated fats, monounsaturated fats, carbohydrate or protein. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effect of reducing saturated fat intake and replacing it with carbohydrate (CHO), polyunsaturated (PUFA), monounsaturated fat (MUFA) and/or protein on mortality and cardiovascular morbidity, using all available randomised clinical trials. SEARCH METHODS: We updated our searches of the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE (Ovid) and Embase (Ovid) on 15 October 2019, and searched Clinicaltrials.gov and WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) on 17 October 2019. SELECTION CRITERIA: Included trials fulfilled the following criteria: 1) randomised; 2) intention to reduce saturated fat intake OR intention to alter dietary fats and achieving a reduction in saturated fat; 3) compared with higher saturated fat intake or usual diet; 4) not multifactorial; 5) in adult humans with or without cardiovascular disease (but not acutely ill, pregnant or breastfeeding); 6) intervention duration at least 24 months; 7) mortality or cardiovascular morbidity data available. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently assessed inclusion, extracted study data and assessed risk of bias. We performed random-effects meta-analyses, meta-regression, subgrouping, sensitivity analyses, funnel plots and GRADE assessment. MAIN RESULTS: We included 15 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) (16 comparisons, ~59,000 participants), that used a variety of interventions from providing all food to advice on reducing saturated fat. The included long-term trials suggested that reducing dietary saturated fat reduced the risk of combined cardiovascular events by 21% (risk ratio (RR) 0.79; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.66 to 0.93, 11 trials, 53,300 participants of whom 8% had a cardiovascular event, I² = 65%, GRADE moderate-quality evidence). Meta-regression suggested that greater reductions in saturated fat (reflected in greater reductions in serum cholesterol) resulted in greater reductions in risk of CVD events, explaining most heterogeneity between trials. The number needed to treat for an additional beneficial outcome (NNTB) was 56 in primary prevention trials, so 56 people need to reduce their saturated fat intake for ~four years for one person to avoid experiencing a CVD event. In secondary prevention trials, the NNTB was 32. Subgrouping did not suggest significant differences between replacement of saturated fat calories with polyunsaturated fat or carbohydrate, and data on replacement with monounsaturated fat and protein was very limited. We found little or no effect of reducing saturated fat on all-cause mortality (RR 0.96; 95% CI 0.90 to 1.03; 11 trials, 55,858 participants) or cardiovascular mortality (RR 0.95; 95% CI 0.80 to 1.12, 10 trials, 53,421 participants), both with GRADE moderate-quality evidence. There was little or no effect of reducing saturated fats on non-fatal myocardial infarction (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.87 to 1.07) or CHD mortality (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.82 to 1.16, both low-quality evidence), but effects on total (fatal or non-fatal) myocardial infarction, stroke and CHD events (fatal or non-fatal) were all unclear as the evidence was of very low quality. There was little or no effect on cancer mortality, cancer diagnoses, diabetes diagnosis, HDL cholesterol, serum triglycerides or blood pressure, and small reductions in weight, serum total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol and BMI. There was no evidence of harmful effects of reducing saturated fat intakes. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this updated review suggest that reducing saturated fat intake for at least two years causes a potentially important reduction in combined cardiovascular events. Replacing the energy from saturated fat with polyunsaturated fat or carbohydrate appear to be useful strategies, while effects of replacement with monounsaturated fat are unclear. The reduction in combined cardiovascular events resulting from reducing saturated fat did not alter by study duration, sex or baseline level of cardiovascular risk, but greater reduction in saturated fat caused greater reductions in cardiovascular events

Effects of total fat intake on body fatness in adults

Background: The ideal proportion of energy from fat in our food and its relation to body weight is not clear. In order to prevent overweight and obesity in the general population, we need to understand the relationship between the proportion of energy from fat and resulting weight and body fatness in the general population. Objectives: To assess the effects of proportion of energy intake from fat on measures of body fatness (including body weight, waist circumference, percentage body fat and body mass index) in people not aiming to lose weight, using all appropriate randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of at least six months duration. Search methods: We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, Clinicaltrials.gov and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) to October 2019. We did not limit the search by language. Selection criteria: Trials fulfilled the following criteria: 1) randomised intervention trial, 2) included adults aged at least 18 years, 3) randomised to a lower fat versus higher fat diet, without the intention to reduce weight in any participants, 4) not multifactorial and 5) assessed a measure of weight or body fatness after at least six months. We duplicated inclusion decisions and resolved disagreement by discussion or referral to a third party. Data collection and analysis: We extracted data on the population, intervention, control and outcome measures in duplicate. We extracted measures of body fatness (body weight, BMI, percentage body fat and waist circumference) independently in duplicate at all available time points. We performed random-effects meta-analyses, meta-regression, subgrouping, sensitivity, funnel plot analyses and GRADE assessment. Main results: We included 37 RCTs (57,079 participants). There is consistent high-quality evidence from RCTs that reducing total fat intake results in small reductions in body fatness; this was seen in almost all included studies and was highly resistant to sensitivity analyses (GRADE high-consistency evidence, not downgraded). The effect of eating less fat (compared with higher fat intake) is a mean body weight reduction of 1.4 kg (95% confidence interval (CI) -1.7 to -1.1 kg, in 53,875 participants from 26 RCTs, I2 = 75%). The heterogeneity was explained in subgrouping and meta-regression. These suggested that greater weight loss results from greater fat reductions in people with lower fat intake at baseline, and people with higher body mass index (BMI) at baseline. The size of the effect on weight does not alter over time and is mirrored by reductions in BMI (MD -0.5 kg/m2, 95% CI -0.6 to -0.3, 46,539 participants in 14 trials, I2 = 21%), waist circumference (MD -0.5 cm, 95% CI -0.7 to -0.2, 16,620 participants in 3 trials; I2 = 21%), and percentage body fat (MD -0.3% body fat, 95% CI -0.6 to 0.00, P = 0.05, in 2350 participants in 2 trials; I2 = 0%). There was no suggestion of harms associated with low fat diets that might mitigate any benefits on body fatness. The reduction in body weight was reflected in small reductions in LDL (-0.13 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.21 to -0.05), and total cholesterol (-0.23 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.32 to -0.14), with little or no effect on HDL cholesterol (-0.02 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.03 to 0.00), triglycerides (0.01 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.05 to 0.07), systolic (-0.75 mmHg, 95% CI -1.42 to -0.07) or diastolic blood pressure(-0.52 mmHg, 95% CI -0.95 to -0.09), all GRADE high-consistency evidence or quality of life (0.04, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.07, on a scale of 0 to 10, GRADE low-consistency evidence). Authors' conclusions: Trials where participants were randomised to a lower fat intake versus a higher fat intake, but with no intention to reduce weight, showed a consistent, stable but small effect of low fat intake on body fatness: slightly lower weight, BMI, waist circumference and percentage body fat compared with higher fat arms. Greater fat reduction, lower baseline fat intake and higher baseline BMI were all associated with greater reductions in weight. There was no evidence of harm to serum lipids, blood pressure or quality of life, but rather of small benefits or no effect