Use of SMS texts for facilitating access to online alcohol interventions: a feasibility study

A41 Use of SMS texts for facilitating access to online alcohol interventions: a feasibility study In: Addiction Science & Clinical Practice 2017, 12(Suppl 1): A4

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Intra- and interobserver agreement in the interpretation of navicular bones on radiographs and computed tomography scans

Reasons for performing study: Criteria for the radiographic evaluation of navicular bones in horses have been published to standardise classification of radiographic signs. However, intra- and interobserver agreement have not been established. Objective: To determine intra- and interobserver agreement in the evaluation of radiographic and computed tomographic (CT) navicular changes. It was hypothesised that: 1) intraobserver agreement would be better than interobserver agreement; 2) agreement would be better for CT than for radiography; and 3) pathological changes would be recognised with greater certainty with CT. Methods: Radiographs and CT scans of 60 cadaver navicular bones were evaluated by 3 observers using published criteria. A subset of 30 studies was evaluated twice by one observer. Agreement was tested using the kappa statistic. Certainty about pathological changes was evaluated by giving the observers the option to choose 'not sure'. Results: Agreement varied from poor to almost perfect for radiographic evaluation and from poor to substantial for CT evaluation. For radiographic evaluation mean interobserver agreement was fair, as it was for CT evaluation. For radiographic evaluation mean intraobserver agreement was moderate as it was for CT evaluation. Pathological changes were evaluated with greater certainty on CT scans compared to radiographs; however, this was not associated with improved agreement. Conclusions: Variations in classification of navicular lesions in radiographic and CT studies were considerable between and within observers and challenge the use of such studies for diagnostic and prognostic purposes. Potential relevance: The results of this study allowed the identification of evaluation criteria with sufficient precision to be useful for navicular bone evaluation

Stride lengths, speed and energy costs in walking of Australopithecus afarensis:Using evolutionary robotics to predict locomotion of early human ancestors

This paper uses techniques from evolutionary robotics to predict the most energy-efficient upright walking gait for the early human relative Australopithecus afarensis, based on the proportions of the 3.2 million year old AL 288-1 ‘Lucy’ skeleton, and matches predictions against the nearly contemporaneous (3.5–3.6 million year old) Laetoli fossil footprint trails. The technique creates gaits de novo and uses genetic algorithm optimization to search for the most efficient patterns of simulated muscular contraction at a variety of speeds. The model was first verified by predicting gaits for living human subjects, and comparing costs, stride lengths and speeds to experimentally determined values for the same subjects. Subsequent simulations for A. afarensis yield estimates of the range of walking speeds from 0.6 to 1.3 m s(−1) at a cost of 7.0 J kg(−1) m(−1) for the lowest speeds, falling to 5.8 J kg(−1) m(−1) at 1.0 m s(−1), and rising to 6.2 J kg(−1) m(−1) at the maximum speed achieved. Speeds previously estimated for the makers of the Laetoli footprint trails (0.56 or 0.64 m s(−1) for Trail 1, 0.72 or 0.75 m s(−1) for Trail 2/3) may have been underestimated, substantially so for Trail 2/3, with true values in excess of 0.7 and 1.0 m s(−1), respectively. The predictions conflict with suggestions that A. afarensis used a ‘shuffling’ gait, indicating rather that the species was a fully competent biped