Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980�2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. Methods For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification. Findings Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95 uncertainty interval UI 3·1�3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5�2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6�40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7�1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1�1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. Interpretation Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute of Mental Health and National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health. © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY licens

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990�2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors�the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25 over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8 (95 CI 56·6�58·8) of global deaths and 41·2 (39·8�42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million 192·7 million to 231·1 million global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million 134·2 million to 163·1 million), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million 125·1 million to 163·5 million), high BMI (120·1 million 83·8 million to 158·4 million), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million 103·9 million to 123·4 million), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million 90·8 million to 115·1 million), high total cholesterol (88·7 million 74·6 million to 105·7 million), household air pollution (85·6 million 66·7 million to 106·1 million), alcohol use (85·0 million 77·2 million to 93·0 million), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million 49·3 million to 127·5 million). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY licens

Cauliflower mosaic virus protein P6‐TAV plays a major role in alteration of aphid vector feeding behaviour but not performance on infected Arabidopsis

International audienceEmerging evidence suggests that viral infection modifies host plant traits that in turn alter behaviour and performance of vectors colonizing the plants in a way conducive for transmission of both nonpersistent and persistent viruses. Similar evidence for semipersistent viruses like cauliflower mosaic virus (CaMV) is scarce. Here we compared the effects of Arabidopsis infection with mild (CM) and severe (JI) CaMV isolates on the feeding behaviour (recorded by the electrical penetration graph technique) and fecundity of the aphid vector Myzus persicae. Compared to mock-inoculated plants, feeding behaviour was altered similarly on CM- and JI-infected plants, but only aphids on JI-infected plants had reduced fecundity. To evaluate the role of the multifunctional CaMV protein P6-TAV, aphid feeding behaviour and fecundity were tested on transgenic Arabidopsis plants expressing wild-type (wt) and mutant versions of P6-TAV. In contrast to viral infection, aphid fecundity was unchanged on all transgenic lines, suggesting that other viral factors compromise fecundity. Aphid feeding behaviour was modified on wt P6-CM-, but not on wt P6-JI-expressing plants. Analysis of plants expressing P6 mutants identified N-terminal P6 domains contributing to modification of feeding behaviour. Taken together, we show that CaMV infection can modify both aphid fecundity and feeding behaviour and that P6 is only involved in the latter

Cross-reactivity of antibodies in human infections by the kinetoplastid protozoa Trypanosoma cruzi, Leishmania chagasi and Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis Reatividade cruzada de anticorpos em pacientes com infecções pelos protozoários Trypanosoma cruzi, Leishmania chagasi e Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis

We have detected antibodies, in the sera of Chagas disease, Kala-azar and Mucocutaneous leishmaniasis patients, that bind multiple antigens shared between the three causative agents. The Chagas disease sera showed 98 to 100% positive results by ELISA when the Leishmania braziliensis and Leishmania chagasi antigens were used, respectively. The Kala-azar sera showed 100% positive results with Trypanosoma cruzi or L. braziliensis antigens by immunofluorescence assays. The antibodies in the sera of Mucocutaneous leishmaniasis patients showed 100% positive results by ELISA assays with T. cruzi or L. chagasi antigens. Furthermore, the direct agglutination of L. chagasi promastigotes showed that 95% of Kala-azar and 35% of Mucocutaneous leishmaniasis sera agglutinated the parasite in dilutions above 1:512. In contrast, 15% of Chagas sera agglutinated the parasite in dilutions 1:16 and below. Western blot analysis showed that the Chagas sera that formed at least 24 bands with the T. cruzi also formed 13 bands with the L. chagasi and 17 bands with the L. braziliensis. The Kala-azar sera that recognized at least 29 bands with the homologous antigen also formed 14 bands with the T. cruzi and 10 bands with the L. braziliensis antigens. Finally, the Mucocutaneous leishmaniasis sera that formed at least 17 bands with the homologous antigen also formed 10 bands with the T. cruzi and four bands with the L. chagasi antigens. These results indicate the presence of common antigenic determinants in several protozoal proteins and, therefore, explain the serologic cross-reactions reported here.<br>Foram detectados anticorpos, nos soros de pacientes com doença de Chagas, Calazar e Leishnnaniose cutâneo-mucosa, que se ligam a antígenos compartilhados pelos três agentes causais. Os pacientes chagásicos mostraram 98 a 100% de soropositividade pelo ELISA quando antígenos de Leishmania braziliensis e de Leishmania chagasi foram usados, respectivamente. Os soros de Calazar mostraram resultados positivos com antígenos de Trypanosoma cruzi ou com L. braziliensis pela imunofluorescência. Ademais, os anticorpos nos soros de pacientes com Leishmaniose cutâneo-mucosa tinham 100% de resultados positivos pelo ELISA com antígenos de T. cruzi ou de L. chagasi. Ademais, a aglutinação direta de promastigotas de L. chagasi mostrou que 95% dos soros de Calazar e 35% de Leishmaniose cutâneo-mucosa algutinaram o parasito em diluições acima de 1:512. Em contraste, 15% dos soros chagásicos aglutinaram o parasito na diluição de 1:16 ou abaixo. Análises pelo Western blot mostraram que os soros chagásicos que formaram pelo menos 24 bandas com antígeno de T. cruzi também foramaram 13 bandas com antígeno de L. chagasi e 17 bandas com L. braziliensis. Os soros de Calazar que reconheceram pelo menos 29 bandas com o antígeno homólogo também formaram 14 bandas com o T. cruzi e 10 bandas com L. braziliensis. Finalmente, os soros de Leishmaniose cutâneo-mucosa que formaram pelo menos 17 bandas com o antígeno homólogo também formaram 10 bandas com os antígenos de T. cruzi e quatro com L. braziliensis. Esses resultados indicam a presença de determinantes antigênicos comuns em várias proteínas desses protozoários e, portanto, explicam as reações sorológicas cruzadas descritas aqui