Pandemic and cost inflation in Peru

This article proposes to analyze the two most urgent problems in Peru today: the pandemic and cost-push inflation. A first conclusion is to recognize that the Covid-19 pandemic has not ended, neither globally nor in Peru. Experts predict that the third wave will arrive in Peru with the new Delta variant in late 2021. It is crucial to contain contagions without affecting reactivation of the economy. The methodology used is the input-output price model. In relation to exchange-rate cost-impacts, the conclusion is that the expected impact of a devaluation of the new sol is estimated as an impact on Consumer Price Index. The impacts are in the range of 7% to 22% or to 36%, depending on the degree of the assumed devaluation being low, intermediate, or extreme. A third conclusion of the analysis relates to increases in the prices of strategic commodities. As an example, the 92% increase in the world price of crude oil has an aggregate effect equal to 6.2% increase in the CPI of the Peruvian economy, after all forward linkages of crude oil, on gasoline and other fuels are reflected. Note that other international commodity prices have also increased in world markets -such as corn, soybeans, and grains- although they are not included in this analysis.This article proposes to analyze the two most urgent problems in Peru today: the pandemic and cost-push inflation. A first conclusion is to recognize that the Covid-19 pandemic has not ended, neither globally nor in Peru. Experts predict that the third wave will arrive in Peru with the new Delta variant in late 2021. It is crucial to contain contagions without affecting reactivation of the economy. The methodology used is the input-output price model. In relation to exchange-rate cost-impacts, the conclusion is that the expected impact of a devaluation of the new sol is estimated as an impact on Consumer Price Index. The impacts are in the range of 7% to 22% or to 36%, depending on the degree of the assumed devaluation being low, intermediate, or extreme. A third conclusion of the analysis relates to increases in the prices of strategic commodities. As an example, the 92% increase in the world price of crude oil has an aggregate effect equal to 6.2% increase in the CPI of the Peruvian economy, after all forward linkages of crude oil, on gasoline and other fuels are reflected. Note that other international commodity prices have also increased in world markets -such as corn, soybeans, and grains- although they are not included in this analysis

Recovery After the Covid-19 Pandemic: the Case of Peruvian Tourism

The situation Peru is facing with the global COVID-19 pandemic and the economic recession during this 2020 constitutes the worst crisis over the last 100 years. This economic recession has not happened since the crisis of 1980. GPD may decline by 15 % this year. Also, the perspective on global economy is terrible and a sharp contraction of global GDP is expected. On the other hand, the period between 2020 and 2021 will be considered as years of economic development lost. Specifically, receptive tourism in Peru is in danger of extinction because of the pandemic. Activity in the tourism market, which gives employment to 1.4 million people who are mainly women, is in total collapse. This article aims to make a proposal to help tourism sales recover their position as the most important section of service exports in Peru. The proposal is intended to encourage a non-traditional form of tourism in the tropical coast of the north of the country that should complement the traditional archeological tourism. The conclusions make emphasis on the fact that, at present, Peru is not exploiting its historical richness or using its comparative advantage in tourism, which could become a leading sector of domestic economy. Finally, our thesis is based on the notion that, from 2021 onwards, the recovery of the Peruvian economy must necessarily be based on exploiting the recovery of external demand rather than putting our trust in domestic demand growth.The situation Peru is facing with the global COVID-19 pandemic and the economic recession during this 2020 constitutes the worst crisis over the last 100 years. This economic recession has not happened since the crisis of 1980. GPD may decline by 15 % this year. Also, the perspective on global economy is terrible and a sharp contraction of global GDP is expected. On the other hand, the period between 2020 and 2021 will be considered as years of economic development lost. Specifically, receptive tourism in Peru is in danger of extinction because of the pandemic. Activity in the tourism market, which gives employment to 1.4 million people who are mainly women, is in total collapse. This article aims to make a proposal to help tourism sales recover their position as the most important section of service exports in Peru. The proposal is intended to encourage a non-traditional form of tourism in the tropical coast of the north of the country that should complement the traditional archeological tourism. The conclusions make emphasis on the fact that, at present, Peru is not exploiting its historical richness or using its comparative advantage in tourism, which could become a leading sector of domestic economy. Finally,our thesis is based on the notion that, from 2021 onwards, the recovery of the Peruvian economy must necessarily be based on exploiting the recovery of external demand rather than putting our trust in domestic demand growth

Pandemic and cost inflation in Peru

This article proposes to analyze the two most urgent problems in Peru today: the pandemic and cost-push inflation. A first conclusion is to recognize that the Covid-19 pandemic has not ended, neither globally nor in Peru. Experts predict that the third wave will arrive in Peru with the new Delta variant in late 2021. It is crucial to contain contagions without affecting reactivation of the economy. The methodology used is the input-output price model. In relation to exchange-rate cost-impacts, the conclusion is that the expected impact of a devaluation of the new sol is estimated as an impact on Consumer Price Index. The impacts are in the range of 7% to 22% or to 36%, depending on the degree of the assumed devaluation being low, intermediate, or extreme. A third conclusion of the analysis relates to increases in the prices of strategic commodities. As an example, the 92% increase in the world price of crude oil has an aggregate effect equal to 6.2% increase in the CPI of the Peruvian economy, after all forward linkages of crude oil, on gasoline and other fuels are reflected. Note that other international commodity prices have also increased in world markets -such as corn, soybeans, and grains- although they are not included in this analysis.This article proposes to analyze the two most urgent problems in Peru today: the pandemic and cost-push inflation. A first conclusion is to recognize that the Covid-19 pandemic has not ended, neither globally nor in Peru. Experts predict that the third wave will arrive in Peru with the new Delta variant in late 2021. It is crucial to contain contagions without affecting reactivation of the economy. The methodology used is the input-output price model. In relation to exchange-rate cost-impacts, the conclusion is that the expected impact of a devaluation of the new sol is estimated as an impact on Consumer Price Index. The impacts are in the range of 7% to 22% or to 36%, depending on the degree of the assumed devaluation being low, intermediate, or extreme. A third conclusion of the analysis relates to increases in the prices of strategic commodities. As an example, the 92% increase in the world price of crude oil has an aggregate effect equal to 6.2% increase in the CPI of the Peruvian economy, after all forward linkages of crude oil, on gasoline and other fuels are reflected. Note that other international commodity prices have also increased in world markets -such as corn, soybeans, and grains- although they are not included in this analysis

Energy prices and competitiveness in Latin American emerging economies

This paper presents an evaluation of the impact of international oil prices on the competitiveness of three emergent economies in Latin America. We use the methodology of input-output tables for: Peru, Chile and Colombia. Recent outstanding macroeconomic performance of these three emergent countries caused an increase in their demand for energy, which deepened their trade deficit of oil. The effects of high petroleum prices are divided into (a) the impact on costs of new energy prices and (b) the impact on competitiveness. The main conclusion is that energy inputs today constitute the most important cost for industries in Peru, Chile, and Colombia. We recommend some policies for energy efficiency that are consistent with the competitiveness of these three emerging market economies

Globalization and Multipliers in the Pacific Alliance Countries: Cases of Peru, Chile and Colombia

Primary objectives of this work are to discuss the relationship between the level of globalization, the tendencies of import coefficients, and the value of income multipliers in emerging countries in general. The analysis is made via three case studies from The Pacific Alliance countries: Colombia, Peru, and Chile. Statistical results confirm our initial hypothesis of an inverse relationship between globalization and the value of income multipliers. The methodology for calculation of income multipliers is based on the input-output tables of each country for the corresponding years of the analysis

Comercio y equilibrio entre los países de la ALADI

Incluye BibliografíaAnaliza la crisis economica latinoamericana y sus efectos sobre el comercio zonal y propone una metodologia para seleccionar productos de intercambio potencial, y la utilizacion de algunas modalidades no tradicionales del intercambio para contribuir a la recuperacion de las corrientes comerciales de los paises de la ALADI

Genomic value of isocitrate-dehydrogenase (IDH1/2) in glioma origin and progression (ONCOLGroup)

Las mutaciones heterocigotas del gen que codifica la isocitrato deshidrogenasa (IDH) ocurren con relativa frecuencia en los gliomas; sin embargo, su relevancia durante el desarrollo tumoral es desconocida. Estas alteraciones provocan una pérdida en la afinidad de la enzima por el sustrato, inhibiendo la actividad de la isoforma silvestre de la IDH1 a través de la formación de heterodímeros inactivos. La expresión forzada de la mutación IDH1/2 en cultivos celulares reduce la formación del producto de la enzima, el α-ketoglutarato (α-KG), e incrementa los niveles del factor inducido por la hipoxia tipo 1 (HIF-1α, un elemento de transcripción que facilita el crecimiento tumoral en presencia de bajas concentraciones de oxígeno, hallazgo regulado en parte por el α-KG. La expresión del HIF-1α suele ser mayor entre los gliomas portadores de la mutación IDH, en los que la vía de señalización del HIF está implicada en su progresión. Varios grupos independientes han demostrado el papel que tienen las mutaciones del gen IDH1/2 como marcador pronóstico, especialmente para los pacientes con gliomas de bajo grado y con glioblastomas secundarios que presentan un patrón oligodendroglial. Este conocimiento proporciona una clara oportunidad para mejorar las estrategias diagnósticas y terapéuticas para los pacientes con gliomas, que en la actualidad no se encuentran dirigidas contra alteraciones moleculares específicas. Este artículo presenta una revisión detallada del papel de las mutaciones del gen IDH en la progresión y el mantenimiento de los gliomas, y explora algunas opciones terapéuticas dirigidas contra este entorno.Revisión de tema22-33Heterozygous mutations in the gene encoding isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH) occur in gliomas, but their mechanistic role in tumor development is unknown. Tumor-derived IDH mutations impair the enzyme affinity for its substrate and dominantly inhibit wild-type IDH1 activity through the formation of catalytically inactive heterodimers. Forced expression of mutant IDH1 in cultured cells reduces formation of the enzyme product, α-ketoglutarate (α-KG), and increases the levels of hypoxia-inducible factor subunit 1 (HIF-1α, a transcription factor that facilitates tumor growth when oxygen is low and whose stability is regulated by α-KG. HIF-1α levels were higher in human gliomas harboring an IDH1 mutation than in tumors without a mutation, thus, IDH1/2 contributes to tumor progression in part through induction of the HIF-1 pathway. Numerous independent research groups had demonstrated the role of IDH mutations as a prognostic marker, especially for those patients with low grade gliomas and secondary glioblastomas with oligodendroglial pattern. This knowledge indicates great opportunities to improve diagnostic and therapeutic strategies for gliomas, which are not currently targeted at the specific molecular alterations. This paper presents a detailed review of the role of the IDH gene mutations in progression and manteinance of gliomas, and explores some therapeutic options directed against this environment

Metastatic non-small cell lung cancer. Current treatment based on evidence (ONCOLGroup)

Propósito: realizar una revisión de la evidencia acerca del tratamiento del cáncer de pulmón de célula no pequeña (CPCNP). Fuente de los datos: la información se obtuvo a partir de búsquedas practicadas en MEDLINE, CCTR, BIOSIS, EMBASE, LILACS y CINHAL. También se recopilaron las referencias más representativas presentadas durante los últimos cinco años en los congresos ASCO, ESMO y de la IASLC. Extracción de los datos: los datos fueron extraídos por miembros asociados al ONCOLGroup. La recopilación de la información no siguió una estrategia uniforme. Resultados de la síntesis de datos: la terapia que se utiliza para tratar el carcinoma de pulmón de células no pequeñas (CPCNP) mejora la supervivencia global y la calidad de vida; no obstante, la mayoría de los pacientes mueren por la enfermedad antes del segundo año del diagnóstico, evento que ha favorecido la generación de nuevas estrategias que permitirán optimizar este desenlace. En la actualidad, el tratamiento estándar de primera línea implica varias combinaciones con base en algún platino que incrementan la supervivencia en comparación con la monoterapia y el mejor soporte paliativo. Estos regímenes son comparables respecto de su eficacia, pero difieren en el perfil de seguridad. Nuevas alternativas de tratamiento dirigidas contra blancos moleculares benefician a poblaciones específicas, cuando se administran solas o con otros agentes con los que presentan sinergismo. Esta revisión no realizó una evaluación sistemática de la evidencia. Conclusión: la terapia médica utilizada en el CPCNP modifica positivamente los desenlaces principales, incluyendo la calidad de vida.Artículo original53-81Purpose: to perform a review of evidence about the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Source of data: the information was obtained from searches conducted in MEDLINE, CCTR, BIOSIS, EMBASE, LILACS and CINHAL. We also collected the most representative references presented during the last five years at ASCO, ESMO and IASLC. Data extraction: data were extracted by associate members to the ONCOLGroup. The collection of information did not follow a uniform strategy. Results of data synthesis: therapy for NSCLC can prolong survival and improve quality of life, but the majority of advanced stage patients dies due to disease progression within 2 years, meaning thatthere is room for improvement. The standard chemotherapy for NSCLC involves one of a number of platinum-based doublets that have been shown to improve survival when compared with single agents or best supportive care. These doublets are generally comparable in terms of efficacy, differing primarily in their toxicity profiles. However, encouraging new options may be approaching, including therapies targeted to specific patient subpopulations, and the use of combinations of current and new drugs to produce synergistic effects. This review present a detailed analysis of current evidence regarding the treatment of NSCLC based on a representative case series. This review didn’t conduct a systematic evaluation of the evidence

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Surgical site infection after gastrointestinal surgery in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: a prospective, international, multicentre cohort study

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common infections associated with health care, but its importance as a global health priority is not fully understood. We quantified the burden of SSI after gastrointestinal surgery in countries in all parts of the world. Methods: This international, prospective, multicentre cohort study included consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection within 2-week time periods at any health-care facility in any country. Countries with participating centres were stratified into high-income, middle-income, and low-income groups according to the UN's Human Development Index (HDI). Data variables from the GlobalSurg 1 study and other studies that have been found to affect the likelihood of SSI were entered into risk adjustment models. The primary outcome measure was the 30-day SSI incidence (defined by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for superficial and deep incisional SSI). Relationships with explanatory variables were examined using Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02662231. Findings: Between Jan 4, 2016, and July 31, 2016, 13 265 records were submitted for analysis. 12 539 patients from 343 hospitals in 66 countries were included. 7339 (58·5%) patient were from high-HDI countries (193 hospitals in 30 countries), 3918 (31·2%) patients were from middle-HDI countries (82 hospitals in 18 countries), and 1282 (10·2%) patients were from low-HDI countries (68 hospitals in 18 countries). In total, 1538 (12·3%) patients had SSI within 30 days of surgery. The incidence of SSI varied between countries with high (691 [9·4%] of 7339 patients), middle (549 [14·0%] of 3918 patients), and low (298 [23·2%] of 1282) HDI (p < 0·001). The highest SSI incidence in each HDI group was after dirty surgery (102 [17·8%] of 574 patients in high-HDI countries; 74 [31·4%] of 236 patients in middle-HDI countries; 72 [39·8%] of 181 patients in low-HDI countries). Following risk factor adjustment, patients in low-HDI countries were at greatest risk of SSI (adjusted odds ratio 1·60, 95% credible interval 1·05–2·37; p=0·030). 132 (21·6%) of 610 patients with an SSI and a microbiology culture result had an infection that was resistant to the prophylactic antibiotic used. Resistant infections were detected in 49 (16·6%) of 295 patients in high-HDI countries, in 37 (19·8%) of 187 patients in middle-HDI countries, and in 46 (35·9%) of 128 patients in low-HDI countries (p < 0·001). Interpretation: Countries with a low HDI carry a disproportionately greater burden of SSI than countries with a middle or high HDI and might have higher rates of antibiotic resistance. In view of WHO recommendations on SSI prevention that highlight the absence of high-quality interventional research, urgent, pragmatic, randomised trials based in LMICs are needed to assess measures aiming to reduce this preventable complication