Evolution of opinions on social networks in the presence of competing committed groups

Public opinion is often affected by the presence of committed groups of individuals dedicated to competing points of view. Using a model of pairwise social influence, we study how the presence of such groups within social networks affects the outcome and the speed of evolution of the overall opinion on the network. Earlier work indicated that a single committed group within a dense social network can cause the entire network to quickly adopt the group's opinion (in times scaling logarithmically with the network size), so long as the committed group constitutes more than about 10% of the population (with the findings being qualitatively similar for sparse networks as well). Here we study the more general case of opinion evolution when two groups committed to distinct, competing opinions $A$ and $B$, and constituting fractions $p_A$ and $p_B$ of the total population respectively, are present in the network. We show for stylized social networks (including Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graphs and Barab\'asi-Albert scale-free networks) that the phase diagram of this system in parameter space $(p_A,p_B)$ consists of two regions, one where two stable steady-states coexist, and the remaining where only a single stable steady-state exists. These two regions are separated by two fold-bifurcation (spinodal) lines which meet tangentially and terminate at a cusp (critical point). We provide further insights to the phase diagram and to the nature of the underlying phase transitions by investigating the model on infinite (mean-field limit), finite complete graphs and finite sparse networks. For the latter case, we also derive the scaling exponent associated with the exponential growth of switching times as a function of the distance from the critical point.Comment: 23 pages: 15 pages + 7 figures (main text), 8 pages + 1 figure + 1 table (supplementary info

Alcohol and cardio-respiratory deaths in Chinese: a population-based case-control study of 32,462 older Hong Kong adults

Background: In observational studies moderate alcohol use reduces cardio-respiratory mortality. However observational studies may be biased by many factors including residual confounding by unmeasured differences between moderate alcohol users and other groups or by changes in alcohol use with ill-health and aging. We used two different analytic strategies in an under-studied population, i.e. southern Chinese, to provide an assessment of the specific impact of moderate alcohol use on mortality from ischemic heart disease (IHD) and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD). Methods: In a population-based case-control study of all adult deaths in Hong Kong Chinese in 1998, we used adjusted logistic regression to compare alcohol use in decedents aged ≥ 60 years from IHD (2270) and COPD (1441) with 10,320 living and 9043 dead controls (all non-alcohol related deaths). We also examined whether the association of alcohol use with death from IHD or COPD varied with sex or smoking status. Results: Using living controls and adjusted for age, socio-economic status and lifestyle, occasional and moderate alcohol use were generally associated with lower mortality from IHD and COPD. However, using dead controls the protection of occasional and moderate alcohol use appeared to be limited to ever-smokers for IHD (odds ratio (OR) 0.58, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.46 to 0.73 for moderate compared to never-use in ever-smokers, but OR 1.07, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.50 in never-smokers), and possibly to men for COPD. High alcohol use was associated with lower IHD mortality and possibly with lower COPD mortality. Conclusion: High levels of alcohol use in an older Chinese population were associated with lower IHD mortality. Moderate alcohol use was less consistently protective against IHD mortality. Alcohol use was associated with lower COPD mortality particularly in men, either due to some yet to be clarified properties of alcohol or as the artefactual result of genetic selection into alcohol use in a Chinese population. Given the increasing use of alcohol in China with economic development, other designs and analytic strategies are needed to assess the impact of alcohol in this population, so that an evidence-based public health policy can be formulated.link_to_subscribed_fulltex

Cost-effectiveness of an integrated 'fast track' rehabilitation service for multi-trauma patients involving dedicated early rehabilitation intervention programs: design of a prospective, multi-centre, non-randomised clinical trial

Contains fulltext : 79649.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: In conventional multi-trauma care service (CTCS), patients are admitted to hospital via the accident & emergency room. After surgery they are transferred to the IC-unit followed by the general surgery ward. Ensuing treatment takes place in a hospital's outpatient clinic, a rehabilitation centre, a nursing home or the community. Typically, each of the CTCS partners may have its own more or less autonomous treatment perspective. Clinical evidence, however, suggests that an integrated multi-trauma rehabilitation approach ('Supported Fast-track multi-Trauma Rehabilitation Service': SFTRS), featuring: 1) earlier transfer to a specialised trauma rehabilitation unit; 2) earlier start of 'non-weight-bearing' training and multidisciplinary treatment; 3) well-documented treatment protocols; 4) early individual goal-setting; 5) co-ordination of treatment between trauma surgeon and physiatrist, and 6) shorter lengths-of-stay, may be more (cost-)effective.This paper describes the design of a prospective cohort study evaluating the (cost-) effectiveness of SFTRS relative to CTCS. METHODS/DESIGN: The study population includes multi-trauma patients, admitted to one of the participating hospitals, with an Injury Severity Scale score > = 16, complex multiple injuries in several extremities or complex pelvic and/or acetabulum fractures. In a prospective cohort study CTCS and SFTRS will be contrasted. The inclusion period is 19 months. The duration of follow-up is 12 months, with measurements taken at baseline, and at 3,6,9 and 12 months post-injury.Primary outcome measures are 'quality of life' (SF-36) and 'functional health status' (Functional Independence Measure). Secondary outcome measures are the Hospital Anxiety & Depression Scale, the Mini-Mental State Examination as an indicator of cognitive functioning, and the Canadian Occupational Performance Measure measuring the extent to which individual ADL treatment goals are met. Costs will be assessed using the PROductivity and DISease Questionnaire and a cost questionnaire. DISCUSSION: The study will yield results on the efficiency of an adapted care service for multi-trauma patients (SFTRS) featuring earlier (and condensed) involvement of specialised rehabilitation treatment. Results will show whether improved SFTRS logistics, combined with shorter stays in hospital and rehabilitation clinic and specialised early rehabilitation training modules are more (cost-) effective, relative to CTCS. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials register (ISRCTN68246661) and Netherlands Trial Register (NTR139)

Effective Rheology of Bubbles Moving in a Capillary Tube

We calculate the average volumetric flux versus pressure drop of bubbles moving in a single capillary tube with varying diameter, finding a square-root relation from mapping the flow equations onto that of a driven overdamped pendulum. The calculation is based on a derivation of the equation of motion of a bubble train from considering the capillary forces and the entropy production associated with the viscous flow. We also calculate the configurational probability of the positions of the bubbles.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figur

Search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at √ s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum are reported. The search uses 20.3 fb−1 of √ s = 8 TeV data collected in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are required to have at least one jet with pT > 120 GeV and no leptons. Nine signal regions are considered with increasing missing transverse momentum requirements between Emiss T > 150 GeV and Emiss T > 700 GeV. Good agreement is observed between the number of events in data and Standard Model expectations. The results are translated into exclusion limits on models with either large extra spatial dimensions, pair production of weakly interacting dark matter candidates, or production of very light gravitinos in a gauge-mediated supersymmetric model. In addition, limits on the production of an invisibly decaying Higgs-like boson leading to similar topologies in the final state are presente

Conducting interactive experiments online

Online labor markets provide new opportunities for behavioral research, but conducting economic experiments online raises important methodological challenges. This particularly holds for interactive designs. In this paper, we provide a methodological discussion of the similarities and differences between interactive experiments conducted in the laboratory and online. To this end, we conduct a repeated public goods experiment with and without punishment using samples from the laboratory and the online platform Amazon Mechanical Turk. We chose to replicate this experiment because it is long and logistically complex. It therefore provides a good case study for discussing the methodological and practical challenges of online interactive experimentation. We find that basic behavioral patterns of cooperation and punishment in the laboratory are replicable online. The most important challenge of online interactive experiments is participant dropout. We discuss measures for reducing dropout and show that, for our case study, dropouts are exogenous to the experiment. We conclude that data quality for interactive experiments via the Internet is adequate and reliable, making online interactive experimentation a potentially valuable complement to laboratory studies

Functional Analysis of the Leading Malaria Vaccine Candidate AMA-1 Reveals an Essential Role for the Cytoplasmic Domain in the Invasion Process

A key process in the lifecycle of the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum is the fast invasion of human erythrocytes. Entry into the host cell requires the apical membrane antigen 1 (AMA-1), a type I transmembrane protein located in the micronemes of the merozoite. Although AMA-1 is evolving into the leading blood-stage malaria vaccine candidate, its precise role in invasion is still unclear. We investigate AMA-1 function using live video microscopy in the absence and presence of an AMA-1 inhibitory peptide. This data reveals a crucial function of AMA-1 during the primary contact period upstream of the entry process at around the time of moving junction formation. We generate a Plasmodium falciparum cell line that expresses a functional GFP-tagged AMA-1. This allows the visualization of the dynamics of AMA-1 in live parasites. We functionally validate the ectopically expressed AMA-1 by establishing a complementation assay based on strain-specific inhibition. This method provides the basis for the functional analysis of essential genes that are refractory to any genetic manipulation. Using the complementation assay, we show that the cytoplasmic domain of AMA-1 is not required for correct trafficking and surface translocation but is essential for AMA-1 function. Although this function can be mimicked by the highly conserved cytoplasmic domains of P. vivax and P. berghei, the exchange with the heterologous domain of the microneme protein EBA-175 or the rhoptry protein Rh2b leads to a loss of function. We identify several residues in the cytoplasmic tail that are essential for AMA-1 function. We validate this data using additional transgenic parasite lines expressing AMA-1 mutants with TY1 epitopes. We show that the cytoplasmic domain of AMA-1 is phosphorylated. Mutational analysis suggests an important role for the phosphorylation in the invasion process, which might translate into novel therapeutic strategies

On the Functional Significance of the P1 and N1 Effects to Illusory Figures in the Notch Mode of Presentation

The processing of Kanizsa figures have classically been studied by flashing the full “pacmen” inducers at stimulus onset. A recent study, however, has shown that it is advantageous to present illusory figures in the “notch” mode of presentation, that is by leaving the round inducers on screen at all times and by removing the inward-oriented notches delineating the illusory figure at stimulus onset. Indeed, using the notch mode of presentation, novel P1and N1 effects have been found when comparing visual potentials (VEPs) evoked by an illusory figure and the VEPs to a control figure whose onset corresponds to the removal of outward-oriented notches, which prevents their integration into one delineated form. In Experiment 1, we replicated these findings, the illusory figure was found to evoke a larger P1 and a smaller N1 than its control. In Experiment 2, real grey squares were placed over the notches so that one condition, that with inward-oriented notches, shows a large central grey square and the other condition, that with outward-oriented notches, shows four unconnected smaller grey squares. In response to these “real” figures, no P1 effect was found but a N1 effect comparable to the one obtained with illusory figures was observed. Taken together, these results suggest that the P1 effect observed with illusory figures is likely specific to the processing of the illusory features of the figures. Conversely, the fact that the N1 effect was also obtained with real figures indicates that this effect may be due to more global processes related to depth segmentation or surface/object perception