Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets. Methods The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B. Findings In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [–5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [–5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000. Interpretation The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990–2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licenseBackground: Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets. Methods: The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B. Findings: In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [–5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [–5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000. Interpretation: The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Peer reviewe

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Estimation of chronic hepatitis C and future burden using various treatment scenarios

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2021Background Hepatitis C is considered a major public health threat.1,2 In 2016, the World Health Organization Global Health Sector Strategy (WHO-GHSS) adopted goals to eliminate hepatitis as a global health concern by 2030. One proxy measurement of goal achievement is a 80% reduction in viremia prevalence of chronic hepatitis C between 2015 and 2030.3 Given improvements in treatment regimens, countries have unique opportunities to functionally cure those chronically infected with HCV and prevent progression to liver cancer and cirrhosis.4 This study identified hepatitis C treatment data sources, created a standardized data processing and application model, and evaluated the impact of treatment both within the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) and on future burden of chronic hepatitis C in 31 locations.Methods This study used treatment data and estimates of chronic hepatitis C from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020. Treatment data are processed through multi-step processing: multi-year splitting, both-sex splitting into sex-specific data points, age-splitting into 5 year GBD age groups, and application of treatment efficacy. Next, the cumulative effect of treatment is calculated as the summation of treatment in the current year as well as previous years and age groups. To generate final GBD estimations of chronic hepatitis C, the number treated by age, sex, year, and location are subtracted from the counterfactual, or unadjusted, treatment estimates of chronic hepatitis C. Three future treatment scenarios are evaluated to explore future burden of chronic hepatitis C: sustained proportion, maximum absolute treatment, and using Egypt’s 2019 mass-treatment campaign as an exemplar for proportional reduction. Results This study found that in 2020 the number of chronic hepatitis C prevalent cases across the 31 locations estimated was 60.5 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46.3 – 78.9). Under the unadjusted model/counterfactual scenario of no treatment, in 2020, the number of chronically infected individuals was 66.9 million (52.4 – 85.4). There was a 10.6% difference (8.3 – 13.2) between the counterfactual and adjusted GBD estimates. In the no treatment scenario, in 2030, 74.0 million (58.0 - 94.4) persons would be infected with chronic hepatitis C. Under the three scenarios of sustained, maximum treated, and exemplar, prevalence would decrease between 2015 and 2030. The largest decline under the various scenarios would be seen in the exemplar scenario in which there is a 58.1% (-66.3 to -48.4) reduction between 2015 and 2030. Interpretation Input data and modeling strategies related to hepatitis C treatment play an important role in accurate estimation of the burden of chronic hepatitis C. Future studies should identify additional data sources to improve data coverage. Regression methods can be used to estimate treatment coverage even in the absence of treatment data. Additionally, findings on future treatment scenarios indicates that continuation of current treatment will result in decreases in the burden of chronic hepatitis C by 2030. However, to achieve the WHO-GHSS goal of 80% reduction, locations must increase treatment over the next decade

The EASL–Lancet Liver Commission: protecting the next generation of Europeans against liver disease complications and premature mortality

© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Liver diseases have become a major health threat across Europe, and the face of European hepatology is changing due to the cure of viral hepatitis C and the control of chronic viral hepatitis B, the increasingly widespread unhealthy use of alcohol, the epidemic of obesity, and undiagnosed or untreated liver disease in migrant populations. Consequently, Europe is facing a looming syndemic, in which socioeconomic and health inequities combine to adversely affect liver disease prevalence, outcomes, and opportunities to receive care. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic has magnified pre-existing challenges to uniform implementation of policies and equity of access to care in Europe, arising from national borders and the cultural and historical heterogeneity of European societies. In following up on work from the Lancet Commission on liver disease in the UK and epidemiological studies led by the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL), our multidisciplinary Commission, comprising a wide range of public health, medical, and nursing specialty groups, along with patient representatives, set out to provide a snapshot of the European landscape on liver diseases and to propose a framework for the principal actions required to improve liver health in Europe. We believe that a joint European process of thinking, and construction of uniform policies and action, implementation, and evaluation can serve as a powerful mechanism to improve liver care in Europe and set the way for similar changes globally.The SHARE data collection has been funded by the European Commission through FP5 (QLK6-CT-2001-00360), FP6 (SHARE-I3: RII-CT-2006-062193; COMPARE: CIT5-CT-2005-028857; SHARELIFE: CIT4-CT-2006-028812), FP7 (SHARE-PREP: GA N°211909; SHARE-LEAP: GA N°227822; SHARE M4: GA N°261982; DASISH: GA N°283646), and Horizon 2020 (SHARE-DEV3: GA N°676536; SHARE-COHESION: GA N°870628; SERISS: GA N°654221; SSHOC: GA N°823782) and by DG Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion. Additional funding from the German Ministry of Education and Research, the Max Planck Society for the Advancement of Science, the US National Institute on Aging (U01_AG09740-13S2; P01_AG005842; P01_AG08291; P30_AG12815; R21_AG025169; Y1-AG-4553-01; IAG_BSR06-11; OGHA_04-064; HHSN271201300071C), and from various national funding sources is gratefully acknowledged. PC acknowledges support by the French National Agency for HIV, hepatitis and emerging infectious diseases research (ANRS / EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The EASL-Lancet Liver Commission: protecting the next generation of Europeans against liver disease complications and premature mortality

Liver diseases have become a major health threat across Europe, and the face of European hepatology is changing due to the cure of viral hepatitis C and the control of chronic viral hepatitis B, the increasingly widespread unhealthy use of alcohol, the epidemic of obesity, and undiagnosed or untreated liver disease in migrant populations. Consequently, Europe is facing a looming syndemic, in which socioeconomic and health inequities combine to adversely affect liver disease prevalence, outcomes, and opportunities to receive care. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic has magnified pre-existing challenges to uniform implementation of policies and equity of access to care in Europe, arising from national borders and the cultural and historical heterogeneity of European societies. In following up on work from the Lancet Commission on liver disease in the UK and epidemiological studies led by the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL), our multidisciplinary Commission, comprising a wide range of public health, medical, and nursing specialty groups, along with patient representatives, set out to provide a snapshot of the European landscape on liver diseases and to propose a framework for the principal actions required to improve liver health in Europe. We believe that a joint European process of thinking, and construction of uniform policies and action, implementation, and evaluation can serve as a powerful mechanism to improve liver care in Europe and set the way for similar changes globally. On the basis of these data, we present ten actionable recommendations, half of which are oriented towards health-care providers and half of which focus primarily on health policy. A fundamental shift must occur, in which health promotion, prevention, proactive case- finding, early identification of progressive liver fibrosis, and early treatment of liver diseases replace the current emphasis on the management of end-stage liver disease complications. A considerable focus should be put on underserved and marginalised communities, including early diagnosis and management in children, and we provide proposals on how to better target disadvantaged communities through health promotion, prevention, and care using multilevel interventions acting on current barriers. Underlying this transformative shift is the need to enhance awareness of the preventable and treatable nature of many liver diseases. Therapeutic nihilism, which is prevalent in current clinical practice across a range of medical specialities as well as in many patients themselves, has to end. We wish to challenge medical specialty protectionism and invite a broad range of stakeholders, including primary care physicians, nurses, patients, peers, and members of relevant communities, along with medical specialists trained in obesity, diabetes, liver disease, oncology, cardiovascular disease, public health, addictions, infectious diseases, and more, to engage in integrated person-centred liver patient care across classical medical specialty boundaries. This shift includes a revision in how we converse about liver disease and speak with our patients, and a reappraisal of disease-related medical nomenclature conducted to increase awareness and reduce the social stigmatisation associated with liver disease. Reimbursement mechanisms and insurance systems must be harmonised to account for patient-centric, multimorbidity models of care across a range of medical specialties, and the World Health Assembly resolution to improve the transparency and fairness of market prices for medicines throughout Europe should be reinforced. Finally, we outline how Europe can move forward with implementation of effective policy action on taxation, food reformulation, and product labelling, advertising, and availability, similar to that implemented for tobacco, to reduce consumption of alcohol, ultra- processed foods, and foods with added sugar, especially among young people. We should utilise the window of opportunity created by the COVID-19 pandemic to overcome fragmentation and the variability of health prevention policies and research across Europe. We argue that the liver is a window to the 21st-century health of the European population. Through our proposed syndemic approach to liver disease and social and health inequities in Europe, the liver will serve as a sentinel for improving the overall health of European populations

The EASL-Lancet Liver Commission: protecting the next generation of Europeans against liver disease complications and premature mortality

Liver diseases have become a major health threat across Europe, and the face of European hepatology is changing due to the cure of viral hepatitis C and the control of chronic viral hepatitis B, the increasingly widespread unhealthy use of alcohol, the epidemic of obesity, and undiagnosed or untreated liver disease in migrant populations. Consequently, Europe is facing a looming syndemic, in which socioeconomic and health inequities combine to adversely affect liver disease prevalence, outcomes, and opportunities to receive care. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic has magnified pre-existing challenges to uniform implementation of policies and equity of access to care in Europe, arising from national borders and the cultural and historical heterogeneity of European societies. In following up on work from the Lancet Commission on liver disease in the UK and epidemiological studies led by the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL), our multidisciplinary Commission, comprising a wide range of public health, medical, and nursing specialty groups, along with patient representatives, set out to provide a snapshot of the European landscape on liver diseases and to propose a framework for the principal actions required to improve liver health in Europe. We believe that a joint European process of thinking, and construction of uniform policies and action, implementation, and evaluation can serve as a powerful mechanism to improve liver care in Europe and set the way for similar changes globally. On the basis of these data, we present ten actionable recommendations, half of which are oriented towards health-care providers and half of which focus primarily on health policy. A fundamental shift must occur, in which health promotion, prevention, proactive casefinding, early identification of progressive liver fibrosis, and early treatment of liver diseases replace the current emphasis on the management of end-stage liver disease complications. A considerable focus should be put on underserved and marginalised communities, including early diagnosis and management in children, and we provide proposals on how to better target disadvantaged communities through health promotion, prevention, and care using multilevel interventions acting on current barriers. Underlying this transformative shift is the need to enhance awareness of the preventable and treatable nature of many liver diseases. Therapeutic nihilism, which is prevalent in current clinical practice across a range of medical specialities as well as in many patients themselves, has to end. We wish to challenge medical specialty protectionism and invite a broad range of stakeholders, including primary care physicians, nurses, patients, peers, and members of relevant communities, along with medical specialists trained in obesity, diabetes, liver disease, oncology, cardiovascular disease, public health, addictions, infectious diseases, and more, to engage in integrated person-centred liver patient care across classical medical specialty boundaries. This shift includes a revision in how we converse about liver disease and speak with our patients, and a reappraisal of disease-related medical nomenclature conducted to increase awareness and reduce the social stigmatisation associated with liver disease. Reimbursement mechanisms and insurance systems must be harmonised to account for patient-centric, multimorbidity models of care across a range of medical specialties, and the World Health Assembly resolution to improve the transparency and fairness of market prices for medicines throughout Europe should be reinforced. Finally, we outline how Europe can move forward with implementation of effective policy action on taxation, food reformulation, and product labelling, advertising, and availability, similar to that implemented for tobacco, to reduce consumption of alcohol, ultraprocessed foods, and foods with added sugar, especially among young people. We should utilise the window of opportunity created by the COVID-19 pandemic to overcome fragmentation and the variability of health prevention policies and research across Europe. We argue that the liver is a window to the 21st-century health of the European population. Through our proposed syndemic approach to liver disease and social and health inequities in Europe, the liver will serve as a sentinel for improving the overall health of European populations

Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of COVID-19-related mortality, 2020???21

The full impact of the pandemic has been much greater than what is indicated by reported deaths due to COVID-19 alone. Strengthening death registration systems around the world, long understood to be crucial to global public health strategy, is necessary for improved monitoring of this pandemic and future pandemics. In addition, further research is warranted to help distinguish the proportion of excess mortality that was directly caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection and the changes in causes of death as an indirect consequence of the pandemic