Determinants of Healthcare Expenditure in Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) Countries: Evidence from Panel Cointegration Tests

Background : Over the last decade there has been an increase in healthcare expenditures while at the same time the inequity in distribution of resources has grown. These two issues have urged the researchers to review the determinants of healthcare expenditures. In this study, we surveyed the determinants of health expenditures in Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) countries. Methods : We used Panel data econometrics methods for the purpose of this research. For long term analysis, we used Pesaran cross sectional dependency test followed by panel unit root tests to show first whether the variables were stationary or not. Upon confirmation of no stationary variables, we used Westerlund panel cointegration test in order to show whether long term relationships exist between the variables. At the end, we estimated the model with Continuous- Updated Fully Modified (CUP-FM) estimator. For short term analysis also, we used Fixed Effects (FE) estimator to estimate the model. Results : A long term relationship was found between the health expenditures per capita and GDP per capita, the proportion of population below 15 and above 65 years old, number of physicians, and urbanisation. Besides, all the variables had short term relationships with health expenditures, except for the proportion of population above 65 years old. Conclusion : The coefficient of GDP was below 1 in the model. Therefore, health is counted as a necessary good in ECO countries and governments must pay due attention to the equal distribution of health services in all regions of the country

Performance Evaluation of Intelligent Adaptive Traffic Control Systems: A Case Study

ABSTRACT Mashhad, the second largest city in Iran, like many other big cities, is faced with increasing traffic congestion owing to rapidly increasing population and annual pilgrimage. In recent years, Mashhad traffic and transportation authorities have been challenged with how to manage the increasing congestion with limited budgets for major roadway construction projects. Mashhad has recognized the need to improve the existing system capacity to get the most out of their current transportation system infrastructures. Since most of the delay times occur at signalized intersections, using an intelligent control system with proper capabilities to overcome the growing traffic requirements is recommended. Following comprehensive studies carried out with the aim of developing the Mashhad traffic control center, the SCATS adaptive traffic control system was introduced as the selected intelligent control system for integrating signalized intersections. The first intersection was equipped with this system in 2005. This paper describes the results of a field evaluation in which fixed actuated-coordinated signal timings are compared with those dynamically computed by SCATS. The effects of this system on optimizing fuel consumption as well as reducing air pollutants are fully discussed. It is found that SCATS consistently reduced travel times and the average delay per stopped or approaching vehicle. The positive impact of adaptive traffic control systems on fuel consumption and air pollution are also highlighted

Study of the Psychosocial outcomes of Being Transsexual in Iran

Introduction: One of the aspects of identity in each person is gender identity that organizes individual's roles and expectations associated with his/her gender. Interfering with the process of sexual identity formation can lead to mental disorders, which is defined as Gender Identity Disorder (GID) by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM). Method: This qualitative study was conducted using content analysis method. In this study, 10 transsexuals were included using purposive sampling and theoretical saturation. Data were collected using semi-structured interviews. Demographic data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Results: The results of interviews indicated that negative reactions of family, social isolation (lack of social acceptance), and deviant behaviors are the main problems that transsexuals face with. Transsexuality is accompanied by displeasure feeling of social isolation and decreased social capital and quality of life. Conclusion: According to the results, the main psycho-social problems of transsexuals are due to negative attitudes of society, which have negative effects on transsexuals and their family, so that most of them experience deprivation, social isolation, running away from home, drug addiction, suicide attempts, and other psychophysical disorders, which not only reduce transsexuals' satisfaction after sex reassignment surgery, but also makes it difficult for them to comply with the new gender role

Return to work after traumatic spinal fractures and spinal cord injuries:a retrospective cohort study

This study aimed to determine the factors associated with return to work (RTW) after traumatic spinal fracture and spinal cord injury. It provided a predictive model for RTW among patients with spinal fractures and spinal cord injury and determined important factors influencing the time to RTW after injury. A retrospective cohort study was conducted in Poursina Tertiary Hospital, Guilan, Iran between May 2017 and May 2020. Patients aged 18 to 65 who were hospitalized with traumatic spinal fractures and spinal cord injuries were included. Demographic and clinical data were collected from the National Spinal Column/Cord Injury Registry of Iran (NSCIR-IR). A researcher-administered questionnaire was used through a telephone interview to obtain complementary data on social and occupational variables. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis was used to estimate the average time to RTW and the predictors of RTW were determined by multivariate Cox regression model. Of the 300 patients included, 78.6% returned to work and the average time to RTW was about 7 months. The mean age of the participants was 45.63 ± 14.76 years old. Among the study variables, having a Bachelor’s degree (HR 2.59; 95% CI 1.16–5.77; P = 0.019), complications after injury (HR 0.47; 95% CI 0.35–0.62; P = 0.0001), full coverage health insurance (HR 1.73; 95% CI 1.10–2.72; P = 0.016), opium use (HR 0.48; 95% CI 0.26–0.90; P = 0.023), number of vertebral fractures (HR 0.82; 95% CI 0.67–0.99; P = 0.046), and length of hospital stay (HR 0.95; 95% CI 0.93–0.98; P = 0.001) were found to be significant in predicting RTW in Cox regression analysis. Our analysis showed that wealthier people and those with high job mobility returned to work later.</p

Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Funding: F Carvalho and E Fernandes acknowledge support from Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P. (FCT), in the scope of the project UIDP/04378/2020 and UIDB/04378/2020 of the Research Unit on Applied Molecular Biosciences UCIBIO and the project LA/P/0140/2020 of the Associate Laboratory Institute for Health and Bioeconomy i4HB; FCT/MCTES through the project UIDB/50006/2020. J Conde acknowledges the European Research Council Starting Grant (ERC-StG-2019-848325). V M Costa acknowledges the grant SFRH/BHD/110001/2015, received by Portuguese national funds through Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT), IP, under the Norma Transitória DL57/2016/CP1334/CT0006.proofepub_ahead_of_prin

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic

Geographical variation in shell shape of the pod razor shell Ensis siliqua (Bivalvia: Pharidae)

The present study assessed the existence of variation in the shell shape of the pod razor shell (Ensis siliqua) throughout its distributional range in the north- eastern Atlantic. Shells of E. siliqua caught at seven collecting sites (three in Portugal, three in Spain and one in Ireland) were studied by geometric morphometric methods, using both landmark- and contour-based methods. Both approaches (landmarks inside the valves and shell outline) discriminated the shells from Aveiro (centre of Portugal) and Strangford Lough (Ireland) from those caught in the nearby localities (remaining Portuguese and Spanish sites,maximum distance of 550 km by sea). Landmark analysis revealed that shells from Aveiro were more similar to shells from Ireland (*1,500 km far away). Contour anal- ysis revealed that shells from Aveiro had a shape with a comparatively larger height-to-width ratio, whereas shells from Ireland showed a slightly more curved outline than in the remaining sites. Landmark- and contour-based methods provided coherent complementary information, confirming the usefulness of geometric morphometric analyses for discerning differences in shell shape among populations of E. siliqua. A brief review of previous applications of geometric morphometric methods to modern bivalve spe- cies is also provided.The authors would like to thank Dr. Dai Roberts and Adele Cromie for providing samples of pod razor shells from Ireland. This study was funded by Community Initiative Programmes (INTERREG-IIIB, Atlantic Area) Sustainable HARvesting of Ensis (090–SHARE) and Towards Integrated Management of Ensis Stocks (206–TIMES) from the European Community. Marta M. Rufino and Paulo Vasconcelos benefited from postdoctoral grants (SFRH/BPD/14935/2004 and SFRH/BPD/26348/2006, respectively) awarded by the Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT—Portugal). Finally, the authors acknowledge three anonymous referees for valuable comments and suggestions that greatly improved the revised manuscript.publishe

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. Methods The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. Findings The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. Interpretation Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere