AJAE Appendix: Deriving a Flexible Mixed Demand System: The Normalized Quadratic Model

The material contained herein is supplementary to the article named in the title and published in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Volume 89, Number 4, November 2007.Demand and Price Analysis,

Inaction, under-reaction action and incapacity:communication breakdown in Italy’s vaccination governance

This article explores why governments do not respond to public compliance problems in a timely manner with appropriate instruments, and the consequences of their failure to do so. Utilising a case study of Italian vaccination policy, the article considers counterfactuals and the challenges of governing health policy in an age of disinformation. It counterposes two methods of governing vaccination compliance: discipline, which uses public institutions to inculcate the population with favourable attitudes and practices, and modulation, which uses access to public institutions as a form of control. The Italian government ineffectively employed discipline for a number of years. Epistemological and organisational constraints stymied its efforts to tackle a significant childhood vaccination compliance problem. With a loss of control over the information environment, vaccinations were not served well by exogenous crises, the sensationalism of the news cycle and online misinformation. Hampered by austerity, lack of capacity and epistemic shortcomings, the Italian government did not protect the public legitimacy of the vaccination programme. Instead of employing communications to reassure a hesitant population, they focused on systemic and delivery issues, until it was too late to do anything except make vaccinations mandatory (using modulation). The apparent short-term success of this measure in generating population compliance does not foreclose the need for ongoing governance of vaccine confidence through effective discipline. This is evident for the COVID-19 vaccination campaign, with many Italians still indicating that they would not accept a vaccine despite the devastation that the disease has wrought throughout their country

Baseline Plasma Gas6 Protein Elevation Predicts Adverse Outcomes in Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients

: Reliable biomarkers allowing early patients' stratification for the risk of adverse outcomes in COVID-19 are lacking. Gas6, together with its tyrosine kinase receptors named TAM, is involved in the regulation of immune homeostasis, fibrosis, and thrombosis. Our aim was to evaluate whether Gas6, sAxl, and sMerTK could represent early predictors of disease evolution either towards a negative (death or need of ICU admission) or a positive (discharge and/or clinical resolution within the first 14 days of hospitalization) outcome. To this purpose, between January and May 2021 (corresponding to third pandemic wave in Italy), 139 consecutive SARS-CoV-2 positive patients were enrolled in a prospective observational study. Plasma levels of these molecules were measured by ELISA at the time of hospitalization and after 7 and 14 days. We observed that higher plasma Gas6 concentrations at hospital admission were associated with a worsening in clinical conditions while lower sMerTK concentrations at baseline and after 7 days of hospitalization were associated with a more favorable outcome. At multivariate analysis, after correction for demographic and COVID-19 severity variables (NEWS2 and PiO2/FiO2), only Gas6 measured at baseline predicted an adverse prognosis with an odds ratio of 1.03 (C.I. 1.01-10.5). At ROC curve analysis, baseline Gas6 levels higher than 58.0 ng/ml predicted a severe disease evolution with 53.3% sensitivity and 77.6% specificity (area under the curve 0.653, p = 0.01, likelihood ratio of 2.38, IQR: 1.46-3.87). Taken together, these results support the hypothesis that a dysregulation in the Gas6/TAM axis could play a relevant role in modulating the course of COVID-19 and suggest that plasma Gas6 may represent a promising prognostic laboratory parameter for this condition

SARS-CoV-2 infection risk is higher in vaccinated patients with inflammatory autoimmune diseases or liver transplantation treated with mycophenolate due to an impaired antiviral immune response: results of the extended follow up of the RIVALSA prospective cohort

BackgroundA relevant proportion of immunocompromised patients did not reach a detectable seroconversion after a full primary vaccination cycle against SARS-CoV-2. The effect of different immunosuppressants and the potential risks for SARS-CoV-2 infection in these subjects is largely unknown.MethodsPatients from the Rivalsa prospective, observational cohort study with planned anti SARS-CoV-2 third dose mRNA vaccination between October and December 2021 were asked to participate to this follow-up study. Patients were asked about eventual confirmed positivity to SARS-CoV-2 infection within 6 months from the third dose and to undergo a blood draw to evaluate seroconversion status after the additional vaccine shot.Results19 out of 114 patients taking part in the survey developed a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection; we identified mycophenolate treatment as an independent predictor of an increased risk of infection even after the third vaccine dose (OR: 5.20, 95% CI: 1.70-20.00, p=0.0053). This result is in agreement with the in vitro evidence that MMF impairs both B and T lymphocytes driven immune responses (reduction both in memory B cells producing anti-spike antibodies and in proliferating CD4+ and CD8+ T cells).ConclusionsImmunocompromised patients need an additional vaccine administration to reach a detectable seroconversion, thus fostering a more personalized approach to their clinical management. Moreover, patients undergoing mycophenolate treatment show a specific increased infection risk, with respect to other immunosuppressants thus supporting a closer monitoring of their health status

Baseline Plasma Osteopontin Protein Elevation Predicts Adverse Outcomes in Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients

More than three years have passed since the first case, and COVID-19 is still a health concern, with several open issues such as the lack of reliable predictors of a patient's outcome. Osteopontin (OPN) is involved in inflammatory response to infection and in thrombosis driven by chronic inflammation, thus being a potential biomarker for COVID-19. The aim of the study was to evaluate OPN for predicting negative (death or need of ICU admission) or positive (discharge and/or clinical resolution within the first 14 days of hospitalization) outcome. We enrolled 133 hospitalized, moderate-to-severe COVID-19 patients in a prospective observational study between January and May 2021. Circulating OPN levels were measured by ELISA at admission and at day 7. The results showed a significant correlation between higher plasma concentrations of OPN at hospital admission and a worsening clinical condition. At multivariate analysis, after correction for demographic (age and gender) and variables of disease severity (NEWS2 and PiO2/FiO2), OPN measured at baseline predicted an adverse prognosis with an odds ratio of 1.01 (C.I. 1.0-1.01). At ROC curve analysis, baseline OPN levels higher than 437 ng/mL predicted a severe disease evolution with 53% sensitivity and 83% specificity (area under the curve 0.649, p = 0.011, likelihood ratio of 1.76, (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.35-2.28)). Our data show that OPN levels determined at the admission to hospital wards might represent a promising biomarker for early stratification of patients' COVID-19 severity. Taken together, these results highlight the involvement of OPN in COVID-19 evolution, especially in dysregulated immune response conditions, and the possible use of OPN measurements as a prognostic tool in COVID-19

Effect of Lactoferrin on Clinical Outcomes of Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19: The LAC Randomized Clinical Trial

: As lactoferrin is a nutritional supplement with proven antiviral and immunomodulatory abilities, it may be used to improve the clinical course of COVID-19. The clinical efficacy and safety of bovine lactoferrin were evaluated in the LAC randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial. A total of 218 hospitalized adult patients with moderate-to-severe COVID-19 were randomized to receive 800 mg/die oral bovine lactoferrin (n = 113) or placebo (n = 105), both given in combination with standard COVID-19 therapy. No differences in lactoferrin vs. placebo were observed in the primary outcomes: the proportion of death or intensive care unit admission (risk ratio of 1.06 (95% CI 0.63-1.79)) or proportion of discharge or National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) ≤ 2 within 14 days from enrollment (RR of 0.85 (95% CI 0.70-1.04)). Lactoferrin showed an excellent safety and tolerability profile. Even though bovine lactoferrin is safe and tolerable, our results do not support its use in hospitalized patients with moderate-to-severe COVID-19

Fatality rate and predictors of mortality in an Italian cohort of hospitalized COVID-19 patients

Clinical features and natural history of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) differ widely among different countries and during different phases of the pandemia. Here, we aimed to evaluate the case fatality rate (CFR) and to identify predictors of mortality in a cohort of COVID-19 patients admitted to three hospitals of Northern Italy between March 1 and April 28, 2020. All these patients had a confirmed diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection by molecular methods. During the study period 504/1697 patients died; thus, overall CFR was 29.7%. We looked for predictors of mortality in a subgroup of 486 patients (239 males, 59%; median age 71 years) for whom sufficient clinical data were available at data cut-off. Among the demographic and clinical variables considered, age, a diagnosis of cancer, obesity and current smoking independently predicted mortality. When laboratory data were added to the model in a further subgroup of patients, age, the diagnosis of cancer, and the baseline PaO2/FiO2 ratio were identified as independent predictors of mortality. In conclusion, the CFR of hospitalized patients in Northern Italy during the ascending phase of the COVID-19 pandemic approached 30%. The identification of mortality predictors might contribute to better stratification of individual patient risk

Search for dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks in √s = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for weakly interacting massive particle dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks is presented. Final states containing third-generation quarks and miss- ing transverse momentum are considered. The analysis uses 36.1 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at √s = 13 TeV in 2015 and 2016. No significant excess of events above the estimated backgrounds is observed. The results are in- terpreted in the framework of simplified models of spin-0 dark-matter mediators. For colour- neutral spin-0 mediators produced in association with top quarks and decaying into a pair of dark-matter particles, mediator masses below 50 GeV are excluded assuming a dark-matter candidate mass of 1 GeV and unitary couplings. For scalar and pseudoscalar mediators produced in association with bottom quarks, the search sets limits on the production cross- section of 300 times the predicted rate for mediators with masses between 10 and 50 GeV and assuming a dark-matter mass of 1 GeV and unitary coupling. Constraints on colour- charged scalar simplified models are also presented. Assuming a dark-matter particle mass of 35 GeV, mediator particles with mass below 1.1 TeV are excluded for couplings yielding a dark-matter relic density consistent with measurements