Effect of Variable Selection Strategy on the Performance of Prognostic Models When Using Multiple Imputation

BACKGROUND: Variable selection is an important issue when developing prognostic models. Missing data occur frequently in clinical research. Multiple imputation is increasingly used to address the presence of missing data in clinical research. The effect of different variable selection strategies with multiply imputed data on the external performance of derived prognostic models has not been well examined. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used backward variable selection with 9 different ways to handle multiply imputed data in a derivation sample to develop logistic regression models for predicting death within 1 year of hospitalization with an acute myocardial infarction. We assessed the prognostic accuracy of each derived model in a temporally distinct validation sample. The derivation and validation samples consisted of 11524 patients hospitalized between 1999 and 2001 and 7889 patients hospitalized between 2004 and 2005, respectively. We considered 41 candidate predictor variables. Missing data occurred frequently, with only 13% of patients in the derivation sample and 31% of patients in the validation sample having complete data. Regardless of the significance level for variable selection, the prognostic model developed using only the complete cases in the derivation sample had substantially worse performance in the validation sample than did the models for which variables were selected using the multiply imputed versions of the derivation sample. The other 8 approaches to handling multiply imputed data resulted in prognostic models with performance similar to one another. CONCLUSIONS: Ignoring missing data and using only subjects with complete data can result in the derivation of prognostic models with poor performance. Multiple imputation should be used to account for missing data when developing prognostic models

Sperm retrieval rate and pregnancy rate in infertile couples undergoing in-vitro fertilisation and testicular sperm extraction for non-obstructive azoospermia in Hong Kong

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The precancer risk of betel quid chewing, tobacco use and alcohol consumption in oral leukoplakia and oral submucous fibrosis in southern Taiwan

In areas where the practise of betel quid chewing is widespread and the chewers also often smoke and drink alcohol, the relation between oral precancerous lesion and condition to the three habits is probably complex. To explore such association and their attributable effect on oral leukoplakia (OL) and oral submucous fibrosis (OSF), a gender–age-matched case–control study was conducted at Kaohsiung, southern Taiwan. This study included 219 patients with newly diagnosed and histologically confirmed OL or OSF, and 876 randomly selected community controls. All information was collected by a structured questionnaire through in-person interviews. A preponderance of younger patients had OSF, while a predominance of older patients had OL. Betel quid chewing was strongly associated with both these oral diseases, the attributable fraction of OL being 73.2% and of OSF 85.4%. While the heterogeneity in risk for areca nut chewing across the two diseases was not apparent, betel quid chewing patients with OSF experienced a higher risk at each exposure level of chewing duration, quantity and cumulative measure than those who had OL. Alcohol intake did not appear to be a risk factor. However, cigarette smoking had a significant contribution to the risk of OL, and modified the effect of chewing based on an additive interaction model. For the two oral premalignant diseases combined, 86.5% was attributable to chewing and smoking. Our results suggested that, although betel quid chewing was a major cause for both OL and OSF, its effect might be difference between the two diseases. Cigarette smoking has a modifying effect in the development of oral leukoplakia

Predictors of betel quid chewing behavior and cessation patterns in Taiwan aborigines

BACKGROUND: Betel quid, chewed by about 600 million people worldwide, is one of the most widely used addictive substances. Cessation factors in betel quid chewers are unknown. The present study explores prevalence and the quit rate of betel quid chewing in Taiwan aborigines. Our goal was to delineate potential predictors of chewing cessation. METHODS: A stratified random community-based survey was designed for the entire aborigines communities in Taiwan. A total of 7144 participants were included between June 2003 and May 2004 in this study. Information on sociodemographic characteristics, such as gender, age, obesity, education years, marital status, ethnicity, and habits of betel quid chewing, smoking and drinking was collected by trained interviewers. RESULTS: The prevalence of betel quid chewers was 46.1%. Betel quid chewing was closely associated with obesity (OR = 1.61; 95% CI: 1.40–1.85). Betel quid chewers were most likely to use alcohol and cigarettes together. Quit rate of betel quid chewers was 7.6%. Betel quid chewers who did not drink alcohol were more likely to quit (OR = 1.89; 95% CI: 1.43–2.50). Alcohol use is a significant factor related to cessation of betel quid chewing, but smoking is not. CONCLUSION: Taiwan aborigines have a high prevalence of betel quid chewers and a low quit rate. Alcohol use is strongly association with betel quid chewing. Efforts to reduce habitual alcohol consumption might be of benefit in cessation of betel quid chewing

Intravenous Infusion Administration: A Comparative Study of Practices and Errors Between the United States and England and Their Implications for Patient Safety

Introduction Intravenous medication administration is widely reported to be error prone. Technologies such as smart pumps have been introduced with a view to reducing these errors. An international comparison could provide evidence of their effectiveness, including consideration of contextual factors such as regulatory systems and local cultures. Objectives The aim of this study was to investigate similarities and differences in practices and error types involving intravenous medication administration in the United States and England, and summarise methodological differences necessary to perform these parallel studies. Methods We drew on findings of separate point prevalence studies conducted across hospitals in each country. In these, we compared what was being administered at the time of observation with the prescription and relevant policies, errors were classified by type and severity, and proportions of infusions featuring each error type were calculated. We also reviewed what adaptations to the US protocol were needed for England. Authors independently reviewed findings from both studies and proposed themes for comparison. In online meetings, each country’s research team clarified assumptions and explained their findings. Results Key themes included commonalities and contrasts in methods, findings, practices and policies. Although US sites made greater use of smart infusion devices, and had more precisely defined requirements around infusion device use, patterns of errors were similar. Differences among clinical contexts within each country were as marked as differences across countries. Regulatory and quality control systems shape practices, but causal relationships are complex. Conclusion Infusion administration is a complex adaptive system with multiple interacting agents (professionals, patients, software systems, etc.) that respond in rich ways to their environments; safety depends on complex, interrelated factors

Bio-psychosocial determinants of cardiovascular disease in a rural population on Crete, Greece: formulating a hypothesis and designing the SPILI-III study

Background: In 1988, the SPILI project was established in order to evaluate the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk profile of the inhabitants of Spili, in rural Crete, Greece. The first reports from this project revealed that against the unfavourable risk factors’ profile observed, only a few men with a previous myocardial infarction were encountered. A follow-up study (SPILI II) was performed twelve years after the initial examination, and the unfavourable cardiovascular risk profile was re-confirmed. Presentation of the Hypothesis: This paper presents a hypothesis formulated on the basis of previous research to investigate if dynamic psycho-social determinants, including social coherence of the local community, religiosity and spirituality, are protective against the development of coronary heart disease in a well-defined population. Testing the Hypothesis: A follow-up examination of this Cretan cohort is currently being performed to assess the link between psychosocial factors and CVD. Psychosocial factors including sense of control, religiosity and spirituality are assessed in together with conventional CVD risk factors. Smoking and alcohol consumption, as well as dietary habits and activity levels are recorded. Oxidative stress and inflammatory markers, as well as ultrasound measurement of carotid intima media thickness, a preclinical marker of atherosclerosis, will also be measured. Implications of the hypothesis tested: The issue of the cardio-protective effect of psycho-social factors would be revisited based on the results of this Cretan cohort; nevertheless, further research is needed across different subpopulations in order to establish a definite relationship. A comprehensive approach based on the aspects of biosocial life may result in more accurate CVD risk management

Elevated myeloid-derived suppressor cells in pancreatic, esophageal and gastric cancer are an independent prognostic factor and are associated with significant elevation of the Th2 cytokine interleukin-13

We undertook a comprehensive analysis of circulating myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSCs) and T regulatory cells (Tregs) in pancreatic, esophageal and gastric cancer patients and investigated whether MDSCs are an independent prognostic factor for survival. We evaluated a series of plasma cytokines and in particular re-evaluated the Th2 cytokine interleukin-13 (IL-13). Peripheral blood was collected from 131 cancer patients (46 pancreatic, 60 esophageal and 25 gastric) and 54 healthy controls. PBMC were harvested with subsequent flow cytometric analysis of MDSC (HLADR− Lin1low/− CD33+ CD11b+) and Treg (CD4+ CD25+ CD127low/− FoxP3+) percentages. Plasma IL-2, IL-4, IL-5, IL-6, IL-10, IL-12 (p70), IL-13, IL-17, G-CSF, IFN-γ, TNF-α and VEGF levels were analyzed by the Bio-Plex cytokine assay. Plasma arginase I levels were analyzed by ELISA. MDSCs and Tregs were statistically significantly elevated in pancreatic, esophageal and gastric cancer compared with controls, and MDSC numbers correlated with Treg levels. Increasing MDSC percentage was associated with increased risk of death, and in a multivariate analysis, MDSC level was an independent prognostic factor for survival. A unit increase in MDSC percentage was associated with a 22% increased risk of death (hazard ratio 1.22, 95% confidence interval 1.06–1.41). Arginase I levels were also statistically significantly elevated in upper gastrointestinal cancer patients compared with controls. There was Th2 skewing for cytokine production in all three diseases, and importantly there were significant elevations of the pivotal Th2 cytokine interleukin-13, an increase that correlated with MDSC levels

A falls prevention programme to improve quality of life, physical function and falls efficacy in older people receiving home help services: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Falls and fall-related injuries in older adults are associated with great burdens, both for the individuals, the health care system and the society. Previous research has shown evidence for the efficiency of exercise as falls prevention. An understudied group are older adults receiving home help services, and the effect of a falls prevention programme on health-related quality of life is unclear. The primary aim of this randomised controlled trial is to examine the effect of a falls prevention programme on quality of life, physical function and falls efficacy in older adults receiving home help services. A secondary aim is to explore the mediating factors between falls prevention and health-related quality of life. METHODS: The study is a single-blinded randomised controlled trial. Participants are older adults, aged 67 or older, receiving home help services, who are able to walk with or without walking aids, who have experienced at least one fall during the last 12 months and who have a Mini Mental State Examination of 23 or above. The intervention group receives a programme, based on the Otago Exercise Programme, lasting 12 weeks including home visits and motivational telephone calls. The control group receives usual care. The primary outcome is health-related quality of life (SF-36). Secondary outcomes are leg strength, balance, walking speed, walking habits, activities of daily living, nutritional status and falls efficacy. All measurements are performed at baseline, following intervention at 3 months and at 6 months' follow-up. Sample size, based on the primary outcome, is set to 150 participants randomised into the two arms, including an estimated 15-20% drop out. Participants are recruited from six municipalities in Norway. DISCUSSION: This trial will generate new knowledge on the effects of an exercise falls prevention programme among older fallers receiving home help services. This knowledge will be useful for clinicians, for health managers in the primary health care service and for policy makers