Phenotype is sustained during hospital readmissions following treatment for complicated severe malnutrition among Kenyan children : a retrospective cohort study

Hospital readmission is common among children with complicated severe acute malnutrition (cSAM) but not well-characterised. Two distinct cSAM phenotypes, marasmus and kwashiorkor, exist, but their pathophysiology and whether the same phenotype persists at relapse are unclear. We aimed to test the association between cSAM phenotype at index admission and readmission following recovery. We performed secondary data analysis from a multicentre randomised trial in Kenya with 1-year active follow-up. The main outcome was cSAM phenotype upon hospital readmission. Among 1,704 HIV-negative children with cSAM discharged in the trial, 177 children contributed a total of 246 readmissions with cSAM. cSAM readmission was associated with age<12 months (p = .005), but not site, sex, season, nor cSAM phenotype. Of these, 42 children contributed 44 readmissions with cSAM that occurred after a monthly visit when SAM was confirmed absent (cSAM relapse). cSAM phenotype was sustained during cSAM relapse. The adjusted odds ratio for presenting with kwashiorkor during readmission after kwashiorkor at index admission was 39.3 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) [2.69, 1,326]; p = .01); and for presenting with marasmus during readmission after kwashiorkor at index admission was 0.02 (95% CI [0.001, 0.037]; p = .01). To validate this finding, we examined readmissions to Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya occurring at least 2 months after an admission with cSAM. Among 2,412 children with cSAM discharged alive, there were 206 readmissions with cSAM. Their phenotype at readmission was significantly influenced by their phenotype at index admission (p < .001). This is the first report describing the phenotype and rate of cSAM recurrence

Biomarkers of post-discharge mortality among children with complicated severe acute malnutrition

High mortality after discharge from hospital following acute illness has been observed among children with Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM). However, mechanisms that may be amenable to intervention to reduce risk are unknown. We performed a nested case-control study among HIV-uninfected children aged 2-59 months treated for complicated SAM according to WHO recommendations at four Kenyan hospitals. Blood was drawn from 1778 children when clinically judged stable before discharge from hospital. Cases were children who died within 60 days. Controls were randomly selected children who survived for one year without readmission to hospital. Untargeted proteomics, total protein, cytokines and chemokines, and leptin were assayed in plasma and corresponding biological processes determined. Among 121 cases and 120 controls, increased levels of calprotectin, von Willebrand factor, angiotensinogen, IL8, IL15, IP10, TNF alpha, and decreased levels of leptin, heparin cofactor 2, and serum paraoxonase were associated with mortality after adjusting for possible confounders. Acute phase responses, cellular responses to lipopolysaccharide, neutrophil responses to bacteria, and endothelial responses were enriched among cases. Among apparently clinically stable children with SAM, a sepsis-like profile is associated with subsequent death. This may be due to ongoing bacterial infection, translocated bacterial products or deranged immune response during nutritional recovery

Cessation of exclusive breastfeeding and seasonality, but not small intestinal bacterial overgrowth, are associated with environmental enteric dysfunction: A birth cohort study amongst infants in rural Kenya.

Background: Environmental Enteric Dysfunction (EED) is a chronic intestinal inflammatory disorder of unclear aetiology prevalent amongst children in low-income settings and associated with stunting. We aimed to characterise development of EED and its putative risk factors amongst rural Kenyan infants. Methods: In a birth cohort study in Junju, rural coastal Kenya, between August 2015 and January 2017, 100 infants were each followed for nine months. Breastfeeding status was recorded weekly and anthropometry monthly. Acute illnesses and antibiotics were captured by active and passive surveillance. Intestinal function and small intestinal bacterial overgrowth (SIBO) were assessed by monthly urinary lactulose mannitol (LM) and breath hydrogen tests. Faecal alpha-1-antitrypsin, myeloperoxidase and neopterin were measured as EED biomarkers, and microbiota composition assessed by 16S sequencing. Findings: Twenty nine of the 88 participants (33%) that underwent length measurement at nine months of age were stunted (length-for-age Z score <-2). During the rainy season, linear growth was slower and LM ratio was higher. In multivariable models, LM ratio, myeloperoxidase and neopterin increased after cessation of continuous-since-birth exclusive breastfeeding. For LM ratio this only occurred during the rainy season. EED markers were not associated with antibiotics, acute illnesses, SIBO, or gut microbiota diversity. Microbiota diversified with age and was not strongly associated with complementary food introduction or linear growth impairment. Interpretation: Our data suggest that intensified promotion of uninterrupted exclusive breastfeeding amongst infants under six months during the rainy season, where rainfall is seasonal, may help prevent EED. Our findings also suggest that therapeutic strategies directed towards SIBO are unlikely to impact on EED in this setting. However, further development of non-invasive diagnostic methods for SIBO is required. Funding: This research was funded in part by the Wellcome Trust (Research Training Fellowship to RJC (103376/Z/13/Z)). EPKP was supported by the MRC/DfID Newton Fund (MR/N006259/1). JAB was supported by the MRC/DFiD/Wellcome Trust Joint Global Health Trials scheme (MR/M007367/1) and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1131320). HHU was supported by the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre (IS-BRC-1215-20008)

Should first-line empiric treatment strategies cover coagulase-negative staphylococcal infections in severely malnourished or HIV-infected children in Kenya?

BACKGROUND: Bloodstream infection is a common cause of morbidity in children aged andlt;5 years in developing countries. In studies reporting bacteremia in Africa, coagulase-negative Staphylococci (CoNS) are commonly isolated. However, it is currently unclear whether children who are highly susceptible to infection because of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) or HIV should be treated with antimicrobials specifically to cover CoNS. We aimed to determine the clinical significance of CoNS amongst children admitted to a rural hospital in Kenya in relation to nutritional and HIV status. METHODS: Systematically collected clinical and microbiological surveillance data from children aged 6-59 months admitted to Kilifi County Hospital (2007-2013) were analysed. Multivariable regression was used to test associations between CoNS isolation from blood cultures and SAM (MUAC andlt;11.5cm or nutritional oedema (kwashiorkor)), and HIV serostatus; and among children with SAM or HIV, associations between CoNS isolation and mortality, duration of hospitalization and clinical features. RESULTS: CoNS were isolated from blood culture in 906/13,315 (6.8%) children, of whom 135/906 (14.9%) had SAM and 54/906 (6.0%) were HIV antibody positive. CoNS isolation was not associated with SAM (MUACandlt;11.5cm (aOR 1.11, 95% CI 0.88-1.40) or kwashiorkor (aOR 0.84, 95% CI 0.48-1.49)), or a positive HIV antibody test (aOR 1.25, 95% CI 0.92-1.71). Among children with SAM or a positive HIV antibody test, CoNS isolation was not associated with mortality or prolonged hospitalization. CONCLUSION: In a large, systematic study, there was no evidence that antimicrobial therapy should specifically target CoNS amongst children with SAM or HIV-infection or exposure

Changes in susceptibility to life-threatening infections after treatment for complicated severe malnutrition in Kenya

Background Goals of treating childhood Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM), besides anthropometric recovery and preventing short-term mortality, include reducing risks of subsequent serious infections. How quickly and how much the risk of serious illness changes during rehabilitation is unknown, but could inform improving design and scope of interventions. Objective To investigate changes in the risk of life-threatening events (LTEs) in relation to anthropometric recovery from SAM. Design Secondary analysis of a clinical trial including 1,778 HIV-uninfected Kenyan children aged 2-59 months with complicated SAM, enrolled following the inpatient stabilization phase of treatment, and followed for 12 months. The main outcome was LTEs, defined as infections requiring re-hospitalization or causing death. We examined anthropometry measured at months one, three and six after enrolment in relation to LTEs occurring during the 6 months following each of these time points. Results During 12 months, there were 823 LTEs (257 fatal), predominantly severe pneumonia and diarrhea. At months one, three and six, 557(34%), 764(49%) and 842(56%) children had WHZ≥-2 respectively which, compared to WHZ Conclusion Anthropometric response was associated with rapid and substantial reduction risk of LTEs. However, reduction in susceptibility lagged behind anthropometric improvement. Disease events, alongside anthropometric assessment may provide a clearer picture of the effectiveness of interventions. Robust protocols for detecting and treating poor anthropometric recovery, and addressing broader vulnerabilities that complicated SAM indicates may save lives.</p

Clinical laboratory reference values amongst children aged 4 weeks to 17 months in Kilifi, Kenya: A cross sectional observational study

Reference intervals for clinical laboratory parameters are important for assessing eligibility, toxicity grading and management of adverse events in clinical trials. Nonetheless, haematological and biochemical parameters used for clinical trials in sub-Saharan Africa are typically derived from industrialized countries, or from WHO references that are not region-specific. We set out to establish community reference values for haematological and biochemical parameters amongst children aged 4 weeks to 17 months in Kilifi, Kenya. We conducted a cross sectional study nested within phase II and III trials of RTS, S malaria vaccine candidate. We analysed 10 haematological and 2 biochemical parameters from 1,070 and 423 community children without illness prior to experimental vaccine administration. Statistical analysis followed Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute EP28-A3c guidelines. 95% reference ranges and their respective 90% confidence intervals were determined using non-parametric methods. Findings were compared with published ranges from Tanzania, Europe and The United States. We determined the reference ranges within the following age partitions: 4 weeks to <6 months, 6 months to less than <12 months, and 12 months to 17 months for the haematological parameters; and 4 weeks to 17 months for the biochemical parameters. There were no gender differences for all haematological and biochemical parameters in all age groups. Hb, MCV and platelets 95% reference ranges in infants largely overlapped with those from United States or Europe, except for the lower limit for Hb, Hct and platelets (lower); and upper limit for platelets (higher) and haematocrit(lower). Community norms for common haematological and biochemical parameters differ from developed countries. This reaffirms the need in clinical trials for locally derived reference values to detect deviation from what is usual in typical children in low and middle income countries

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC