Solar Cycle and Solar Wind Dependence of the Occurrence of Large dB/dt Events at High Latitudes

We investigate sharp changes in magnetic field that can produce Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) which damage pipelines and power grids. We use one-minute cadence SuperMAG observations to find the occurrence distribution of magnetic field “spikes.” Recent studies have determined recurrence statistics for extreme events and charted the local time distribution of spikes; however, their relation to solar activity and conditions in the solar wind is poorly understood. We study spike occurrence during solar cycles 23 and 24, roughly 1995 to 2020. We find three local time hotspots in occurrence: the pre-midnight region associated with substorm onsets, the dawn sector often associated with omega band activity, and the pre-noon sector associated with the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability (KHI) occurring at the magnetopause. Magnetic field perturbations are mainly North-South for substorms and KHI, and East-West for omega bands. Substorm spikes occur at all phases of the solar cycle, but maximize in the declining phase. Omega-band and KHI spikes are confined to solar maximum and the declining phase. Substorm spikes occur during moderate solar wind driving, omega band spikes during strong driving, and KHI spikes during quiet conditions but with high solar wind speed. We show that the shapes of these distributions do not depend on the magnitude of the spikes, so it appears that our results can be extrapolated to extreme events.publishedVersio

Occurrence Statistics of Horse Collar Aurora

Horse collar aurora (HCA) are an auroral feature where the dawn and dusk sector auroral oval moves polewards and the polar cap becomes teardrop shaped. They form during prolonged periods of northward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), when the IMF clock angle is small. Their formation has been linked to dual-lobe reconnection (DLR) closing magnetic flux at the dayside magnetopause. The conditions necessary for DLR are currently not well-understood therefore understanding HCA statistics will allow DLR to be studied in more detail. We have identified over 600 HCA events between 2010 and 2016 in UV images captured by the Special Sensor Ultraviolet Spectrographic Imager instrument on-board the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program spacecraft F16, F17 and F18. As expected, there is a clear preference for HCA occurring during northward IMF. We find no clear seasonal dependence in their occurrence, with an average of 8 HCA events per month. The occurrence of HCA events does not appear to depend on the Bx component of the IMF. Considering the average radiance intensity across the dusk-dawn meridian shows the HCA as a separate bulge inside the auroral oval and that the dawn side arc of the HCA is usually brighter than the dusk in the Lyman-Birge-Hopfield short band. We relate this to the expected field aligned current pattern of HCA formation. We further suggest that transpolar arcs observed in the dawn sector simultaneously in both northern and southern hemispheres are misidentified HCA.publishedVersio

Influence of Off-Sun-Earth Line Distance on the Accuracy of L1 Solar Wind Monitoring

Upstream solar wind measurements from near the L1 Lagrangian point are commonly used to investigate solar wind-magnetosphere coupling. The off-Sun-Earth line distance of such solar wind monitors can be large, up to 100 RE. We investigate how the correlation between measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field and associated ionospheric responses deteriorates as the off-Sun-Earth line distance increases. Specifically, we use the magnitude and polarity of the dayside region 0 field-aligned currents (R0 FACs) as a measure of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) BY-associated magnetic tension effects on newly-reconnected field lines, related to the Svalgaard-Mansurov effect. The R0 FACs are derived from Advanced Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment measurements by a principal component analysis, for the years 2010–2016. We perform cross-correlation analyses between time-series of IMF BY, measured by the Wind spacecraft and propagated to the nose of the bow shock by the OMNI technique, and these R0 FAC measurements. Typically, in the summer hemisphere, cross-correlation coefficients between 0.6 and 0.9 are found. However, there is a reduction of order 0.1–0.15 in correlation coefficient between periods when Wind is close to (within 45 RE) and distant from (beyond 70 RE) the Sun-Earth line. We find a time-lag of around 17 min between predictions of the arrival of IMF features at the bow shock and their effect in the ionosphere, irrespective of the location of Wind.publishedVersio

Lobe Reconnection and Cusp-Aligned Auroral Arcs

Following the St. Patrick's Day (17 March) geomagnetic storm of 2013, the interplanetary magnetic field had near-zero clock angle for almost two days. Throughout this period multiple cusp-aligned auroral arcs formed in the polar regions; we present observations of, and provide a new explanation for, this poorly understood phenomenon. The arcs were observed by auroral imagers onboard satellites of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program. Ionospheric flow measurements and observations of energetic particles from the same satellites show that the arcs were produced by inverted-V precipitation associated with upward field-aligned currents (FACs) at shears in the convection pattern. The large-scale convection pattern revealed by the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network and the corresponding FAC pattern observed by the Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment suggest that dual-lobe reconnection was ongoing to produce significant closure of the magnetosphere. However, we propose that once the magnetosphere became nearly closed complicated lobe reconnection geometries arose that produced interleaving of regions of open and closed magnetic flux and spatial and temporal structure in the convection pattern that evolved on timescales shorter than the orbital period of the DMSP spacecraft. This new model naturally explains many features of cusp-aligned arcs, including why they focus in from the nightside toward the cusp region.publishedVersio

Substorm Onset Latitude and the Steadiness of Magnetospheric Convection

We study the role of substorms and steady magnetospheric convection (SMC) in magnetic flux transport in the magnetosphere, using observations of field‐aligned currents by the Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment. We identify two classes of substorm, with onsets above and below 65° magnetic latitude, which display different nightside field‐aligned current morphologies. We show that the low‐latitude onsets develop a poleward‐expanding auroral bulge, and identify these as substorms that manifest ionospheric convection‐braking in the auroral bulge region as suggested by Grocott et al. (2009, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-27-591-2009). We show that the high‐latitude substorms, which do not experience braking, can evolve into SMC events if the interplanetary magnetic field remains southward for a prolonged period following onset. We conclude that during periods of ongoing driving, the magnetosphere displays repeated substorm activity or SMC depending on the rate of driving and the open magnetic flux content of the magnetosphere prior to onset. We speculate that sawtooth events are an extreme case of repeated onsets and that substorms triggered by northward‐turnings of the interplanetary magnetic field mark the cessation of periods of SMC. Our results provide a new explanation for the differing modes of response of the terrestrial system to solar wind‐magnetosphere‐ionosphere coupling by invoking friction between the ionosphere and atmosphere.publishedVersio

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Obesity, Metabolic Factors and Risk of Different Histological Types of Lung Cancer: A Mendelian Randomization Study

Background: Assessing the relationship between lung cancer and metabolic conditions is challenging because of the confounding effect of tobacco. Mendelian randomization (MR), or the use of genetic instrumental variables to assess causality, may help to identify the metabolic drivers of lung cancer. Methods and findings: We identified genetic instruments for potential metabolic risk factors and evaluated these in relation to risk using 29,266 lung cancer cases (including 11,273 adenocarcinomas, 7,426 squamous cell and 2,664 small cell cases) and 56,450 controls. The MR risk analysis suggested a causal effect of body mass index (BMI) on lung cancer risk for two of the three major histological subtypes, with evidence of a risk increase for squamous cell carcinoma (odds ratio (OR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] = 1.20 [1.01–1.43] and for small cell lung cancer (OR [95%CI] = 1.52 [1.15–2.00]) for each standard deviation (SD) increase in BMI [4.6 kg/m2]), but not for adenocarcinoma (OR [95%CI] = 0.93 [0.79–1.08]) (Pheterogeneity = 4.3x10-3). Additional analysis using a genetic instrument for BMI showed that each SD increase in BMI increased cigarette consumption by 1.27 cigarettes per day (P = 2.1x10-3), providing novel evidence that a genetic susceptibility to obesity influences smoking patterns. There was also evidence that low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was inversely associated with lung cancer overall risk (OR [95%CI] = 0.90 [0.84–0.97] per SD of 38 mg/dl), while fasting insulin was positively associated (OR [95%CI] = 1.63 [1.25–2.13] per SD of 44.4 pmol/l). Sensitivity analyses including a weighted-median approach and MR-Egger test did not detect other pleiotropic effects biasing the main results. Conclusions: Our results are consistent with a causal role of fasting insulin and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in lung cancer etiology, as well as for BMI in squamous cell and small cell carcinoma. The latter relation may be mediated by a previously unrecognized effect of obesity on smoking behavior

Obesity, metabolic factors and risk of different histological types of lung cancer: A Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Assessing the relationship between lung cancer and metabolic conditions is challenging because of the confounding effect of tobacco. Mendelian randomization (MR), or the use of genetic instrumental variables to assess causality, may help to identify the metabolic drivers of lung cancer. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We identified genetic instruments for potential metabolic risk factors and evaluated these in relation to risk using 29,266 lung cancer cases (including 11,273 adenocarcinomas, 7,426 squamous cell and 2,664 small cell cases) and 56,450 controls. The MR risk analysis suggested a causal effect of body mass index (BMI) on lung cancer risk for two of the three major histological subtypes, with evidence of a risk increase for squamous cell carcinoma (odds ratio (OR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] = 1.20 [1.01-1.43] and for small cell lung cancer (OR [95%CI] = 1.52 [1.15-2.00]) for each standard deviation (SD) increase in BMI [4.6 kg/m2]), but not for adenocarcinoma (OR [95%CI] = 0.93 [0.79-1.08]) (Pheterogeneity = 4.3x10-3). Additional analysis using a genetic instrument for BMI showed that each SD increase in BMI increased cigarette consumption by 1.27 cigarettes per day (P = 2.1x10-3), providing novel evidence that a genetic susceptibility to obesity influences smoking patterns. There was also evidence that low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was inversely associated with lung cancer overall risk (OR [95%CI] = 0.90 [0.84-0.97] per SD of 38 mg/dl), while fasting insulin was positively associated (OR [95%CI] = 1.63 [1.25-2.13] per SD of 44.4 pmol/l). Sensitivity analyses including a weighted-median approach and MR-Egger test did not detect other pleiotropic effects biasing the main results. CONCLUSIONS: Our results are consistent with a causal role of fasting insulin and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in lung cancer etiology, as well as for BMI in squamous cell and small cell carcinoma. The latter relation may be mediated by a previously unrecognized effect of obesity on smoking behavior

Trans-ancestry genome-wide association meta-analysis of prostate cancer identifies new susceptibility loci and informs genetic risk prediction.

Prostate cancer is a highly heritable disease with large disparities in incidence rates across ancestry populations. We conducted a multiancestry meta-analysis of prostate cancer genome-wide association studies (107,247 cases and 127,006 controls) and identified 86 new genetic risk variants independently associated with prostate cancer risk, bringing the total to 269 known risk variants. The top genetic risk score (GRS) decile was associated with odds ratios that ranged from 5.06 (95% confidence interval (CI), 4.84-5.29) for men of European ancestry to 3.74 (95% CI, 3.36-4.17) for men of African ancestry. Men of African ancestry were estimated to have a mean GRS that was 2.18-times higher (95% CI, 2.14-2.22), and men of East Asian ancestry 0.73-times lower (95% CI, 0.71-0.76), than men of European ancestry. These findings support the role of germline variation contributing to population differences in prostate cancer risk, with the GRS offering an approach for personalized risk prediction