The permeability and elastic moduli of tuff from Campi Flegrei, Italy: implications for ground deformation modelling

The accuracy of ground deformation modelling at active volcanoes is a principal requirement in volcanic hazard mitigation. However, the reliability of such models relies on the accuracy of the rock physical property (permeability and elastic moduli) input parameters. Unfortunately, laboratory-derived values on representative rocks are usually rare. To this end we have performed a systematic laboratory study on the influence of pressure and temperature on the permeability and elastic moduli of samples from the two most widespread lithified pyroclastic deposits at the Campi Flegrei volcanic district, Italy. Our data show that the water permeability of Neapolitan Yellow Tuff and a tuff from the Campanian Ignimbrite differ by about 1.5 orders of magnitude. As pressure (depth) increases beyond the critical point for inelastic pore collapse (at an effective pressure of 10–15 MPa, or a depth of about 750 m), permeability and porosity decrease significantly, and ultrasonic wave velocities and dynamic elastic moduli increase significantly. Increasing the thermal stressing temperature increases the permeability and decreases the ultrasonic wave velocities and dynamic elastic moduli of the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff; whereas the tuff from the Campanian Ignimbrite remains unaffected. This difference is due to the presence of thermally unstable zeolites within the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff. For both rocks we also find, under the same pressure conditions, that the dynamic (calculated from ultrasonic wave velocities) and static (calculated from triaxial stress-strain data) elastic moduli differ significantly. The choice of elastic moduli in ground deformation modelling is therefore an important consideration. While we urge that these new laboratory data should be considered in routine ground deformation modelling, we highlight the challenges for ground deformation modelling based on the heterogeneous nature (vertically and laterally) of the rocks that comprise the caldera at Campi Flegrei

White-faced Darter distribution is associated with coniferous forests in Great Britain

Abstract 1) Understanding of dragonfly distributions is often geographically comprehensive but less so in ecological terms. 2) White-faced darter (Leucorhinnia dubia) is a lowland peatbog specialist dragonfly which has experienced population declines in Great Britain. White-faced darter are thought to rely on peat-rich pool complexes within woodland but this has not yet been empirically tested. 3) We used dragonfly recording data collected by volunteers of the British Dragonfly Society from 2005 to 2018 to model habitat preference for white-faced darter using species distribution models across Great Britain and, with a more detailed landcover dataset, specifically in the North of Scotland. 4) Across the whole of Great Britain our models used the proportion of coniferous forest within 1km as the most important predictor of habitat suitability but were not able to predict all current populations in England. 5) In the North of Scotland our models were more successful and suggest that habitats characterised by native coniferous forest and areas high potential evapotranspiration represent the most suitable habitat for white-faced darter. 6) We recommend that future white-faced darter monitoring should be expanded to include areas currently poorly surveyed but with high suitability in the North of Scotland. 7) Our results also suggest that white-faced darter management should concentrate on maintaining Sphagnum rich pool complexes and the maintenance and restoration of native forests in which these pool complexes occur

ERP and four dimensions of absorptive capacity: lessons from a developing country

Enterprise resource planning systems can grant crucial strategic, operational and information-based benefits to adopting firms when implemented successfully. However, a failed implementation can often result in financial losses rather than profits. Until now, the research on the failures and successes were focused on implementations in large manufacturing and service organizations firms located in western countries, particularly in USA. Nevertheless, IT has gained intense diffusion to developing countries through declining hardware costs and increasing benefits that merits attention as much as developed countries. The aim of this study is to examine the implications of knowledge transfer in a developing country, Turkey, as a paradigm in the knowledge society with a focus on the implementation activities that foster successful installations. We suggest that absorptive capacity is an important characteristic of a firm that explains the success level of such a knowledge transfer.Publicad

Measurement of Bottom versus Charm as a Function of Transverse Momentum with Electron-Hadron Correlations in p+p Collisions at sqrt(s)=200 GeV

The momentum distribution of electrons from semi-leptonic decays of charm and bottom for mid-rapidity |y|<0.35 in p+p collisions at sqrt(s)=200 GeV is measured by the PHENIX experiment at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) over the transverse momentum range 2 < p_T < 7 GeV/c. The ratio of the yield of electrons from bottom to that from charm is presented. The ratio is determined using partial D/D^bar --> e^{+/-} K^{-/+} X (K unidentified) reconstruction. It is found that the yield of electrons from bottom becomes significant above 4 GeV/c in p_T. A fixed-order-plus-next-to-leading-log (FONLL) perturbative quantum chromodynamics (pQCD) calculation agrees with the data within the theoretical and experimental uncertainties. The extracted total bottom production cross section at this energy is \sigma_{b\b^bar}= 3.2 ^{+1.2}_{-1.1}(stat) ^{+1.4}_{-1.3}(syst) micro b.Comment: 432 authors, 6 pages text, 3 figures. Submitted to Phys. Rev. Lett. Plain text data tables for the points plotted in figures for this and previous PHENIX publications are (or will be) publicly available at http://www.phenix.bnl.gov/papers.htm

ModelPlex: Verified Runtime Validation of Verified Cyber-Physical System Models

Abstract. Formal verification and validation play a crucial role in making cyber-physical systems (CPS) safe. Formal methods make strong guarantees about the system behavior if accurate models of the system can be obtained, including mod-els of the controller and of the physical dynamics. In CPS, models are essential; but any model we could possibly build necessarily deviates from the real world. If the real system fits to the model, its behavior is guaranteed to satisfy the correct-ness properties verified w.r.t. the model. Otherwise, all bets are off. This paper introduces ModelPlex, a method ensuring that verification results about models apply to CPS implementations. ModelPlex provides correctness guarantees for CPS executions at runtime: it combines offline verification of CPS models with runtime validation of system executions for compliance with the model. Model-Plex ensures that the verification results obtained for the model apply to the ac-tual system runs by monitoring the behavior of the world for compliance with the model, assuming the system dynamics deviation is bounded. If, at some point, the observed behavior no longer complies with the model so that offline verifica-tion results no longer apply, ModelPlex initiates provably safe fallback actions. This paper, furthermore, develops a systematic technique to synthesize provably correct monitors automatically from CPS proofs in differential dynamic logic.

Observations and models to support the first Marine Ecosystem Assessment for the Southern Ocean (MEASO)

Assessments of the status and trends of habitats, species and ecosystems are needed for effective ecosystem-based management in marine ecosystems. Knowledge on imminent ecosystem changes (climate change impacts) set in train by existing climate forcings are needed for adapting management practices to achieve conservation and sustainabililty targets into the future. Here, we describe a process for enabling a marine ecosystem assessment (MEA) by the broader scientific community to support managers in this way, using a MEA for the Southern Ocean (MEASO) as an example. We develop a framework and undertake an audit to support a MEASO, involving three parts. First, we review available syntheses and assessments of the Southern Ocean ecosystem and its parts, paying special attention to building on the SCAR Antarctic Climate Change and Environment report and the SCAR Biogeographic Atlas of the Southern Ocean. Second, we audit available field observations of habitats and densities and/or abundances of taxa, using the literature as well as a survey of scientists as to their current and recent activities. Third, we audit available system models that can form a nested ensemble for making, with available data, circumpolar assessments of habitats, species and food webs. We conclude that there is sufficient data and models to undertake, at least, a circumpolar assessment of the krill-based system. The auditing framework provides the basis for the first MEASO but also provides a repository (www.SOKI.aq/display/MEASO) for easily amending the audit for future MEASOs. We note that an important outcome of the first MEASO will not only be the assessment but also to advise on priorities in observations and models for improving subsequent MEASOs

Extreme events and predictability of catastrophic failure in composite materials and in the Earth

Despite all attempts to isolate and predict extreme earthquakes, these nearly always occur without obvious warning in real time: fully deterministic earthquake prediction is very much a ‘black swan’. On the other hand engineering-scale samples of rocks and other composite materials often show clear precursors to dynamic failure under controlled conditions in the laboratory, and successful evacuations have occurred before several volcanic eruptions. This may be because extreme earthquakes are not statistically special, being an emergent property of the process of dynamic rupture. Nevertheless, probabilistic forecasting of event rate above a given size, based on the tendency of earthquakes to cluster in space and time, can have significant skill compared to say random failure, even in real-time mode. We address several questions in this debate, using examples from the Earth (earthquakes, volcanoes) and the laboratory, including the following. How can we identify ‘characteristic’ events, i.e. beyond the power law, in model selection (do dragon-kings exist)? How do we discriminate quantitatively between stationary and non-stationary hazard models (is a dragon likely to come soon)? Does the system size (the size of the dragon’s domain) matter? Are there localising signals of imminent catastrophic failure we may not be able to access (is the dragon effectively invisible on approach)? We focus on the effect of sampling effects and statistical uncertainty in the identification of extreme events and their predictability, and highlight the strong influence of scaling in space and time as an outstanding issue to be addressed by quantitative studies, experimentation and models

Biological Contribution to Social Influences on Alcohol Drinking: Evidence from Animal Models

Social factors have a tremendous influence on instances of heavy drinking and in turn impact public health. However, it is extremely difficult to assess whether this influence is only a cultural phenomenon or has biological underpinnings. Research in non-human primates demonstrates that the way individuals are brought up during early development affects their future predisposition for heavy drinking, and research in rats demonstrates that social isolation, crowding or low social ranking can lead to increased alcohol intake, while social defeat can decrease drinking. Neurotransmitter mechanisms contributing to these effects (i.e., serotonin, GABA, dopamine) have begun to be elucidated. However, these studies do not exclude the possibility that social effects on drinking occur through generalized stress responses to negative social environments. Alcohol intake can also be elevated in positive social situations, for example, in rats following an interaction with an intoxicated peer. Recent studies have also begun to adapt a new rodent species, the prairie vole, to study the role of social environment in alcohol drinking. Prairie voles demonstrate a high degree of social affiliation between individuals, and many of the neurochemical mechanisms involved in regulation of these social behaviors (for example, dopamine, central vasopressin and the corticotropin releasing factor system) are also known to be involved in regulation of alcohol intake. Naltrexone, an opioid receptor antagonist approved as a pharmacotherapy for alcoholic patients, has recently been shown to decrease both partner preference and alcohol preference in voles. These findings strongly suggest that mechanisms by which social factors influence drinking have biological roots, and can be studied using rapidly developing new animal models