Public health utility of cause of death data : applying empirical algorithms to improve data quality

Background: Accurate, comprehensive, cause-specific mortality estimates are crucial for informing public health decision making worldwide. Incorrectly or vaguely assigned deaths, defined as garbage-coded deaths, mask the true cause distribution. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study has developed methods to create comparable, timely, cause-specific mortality estimates; an impactful data processing method is the reallocation of garbage-coded deaths to a plausible underlying cause of death. We identify the pattern of garbage-coded deaths in the world and present the methods used to determine their redistribution to generate more plausible cause of death assignments. Methods: We describe the methods developed for the GBD 2019 study and subsequent iterations to redistribute garbage-coded deaths in vital registration data to plausible underlying causes. These methods include analysis of multiple cause data, negative correlation, impairment, and proportional redistribution. We classify garbage codes into classes according to the level of specificity of the reported cause of death (CoD) and capture trends in the global pattern of proportion of garbage-coded deaths, disaggregated by these classes, and the relationship between this proportion and the Socio-Demographic Index. We examine the relative importance of the top four garbage codes by age and sex and demonstrate the impact of redistribution on the annual GBD CoD rankings. Results: The proportion of least-specific (class 1 and 2) garbage-coded deaths ranged from 3.7% of all vital registration deaths to 67.3% in 2015, and the age-standardized proportion had an overall negative association with the Socio Demographic Index. When broken down by age and sex, the category for unspecified lower respiratory infections was responsible for nearly 30% of garbage-coded deaths in those under 1 year of age for both sexes, representing the largest proportion of garbage codes for that age group. We show how the cause distribution by number of deaths changes before and after redistribution for four countries: Brazil, the United States, Japan, and France, highlighting the necessity of accounting for garbage-coded deaths in the GBD

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Fractured sternal wire causing a cardiac laceration

Abstract Background Hemopericardium is a serious complication that can occur after cardiac surgery. While most post-operative causes are due to inflammation and bleeding, patients with broken sternal wires and an unstable sternum may develop hemopericardium from penetrating trauma. Case presentation We present the case of a 62-year-old male who underwent triple coronary bypass surgery and presented five months later with sudden anterior chest wall pain. Chest computed tomography revealed hemopericardium with an associated broken sternal wire that had penetrated into the pericardial space. The patient underwent a redo-sternotomy which revealed a 3.5 cm bleeding, jagged right ventricular laceration that correlated to the imaging findings of a fractured sternal wire projecting in the pericardial space. The laceration was repaired using interrupted 4 − 0 polypropylene sutures in horizontal mattress fashion between strips of bovine pericardium. The patient’s recovery was uneventful and he was discharged on post-operative day four without complications. Conclusion Patients with broken sternal wires and an unstable sternum require careful evaluation and management as these may have potentially life-threatening complications if left untreated

Additional file 1 of Fractured sternal wire causing a cardiac laceration

Supplementary Material

Identification of two novel SMCHD1 sequence variants in families with FSHD-like muscular dystrophy

Facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy 1 (FSHD1) is caused by a contraction in the number of D4Z4 repeats on chromosome 4, resulting in relaxation of D4Z4 chromatin causing inappropriate expression of DUX4 in skeletal muscle. Clinical severity is inversely related to the number of repeats. In contrast, FSHD2 patients also have inappropriate expression of DUX4 in skeletal muscle, but due to constitutional mutations in SMCHD1 (structural maintenance of chromosomes flexible hinge domain containing 1), which cause global hypomethylation and hence general relaxation of chromatin. Thirty patients originally referred for FSHD testing were screened for SMCHD1 mutations. Twenty-nine had >11 D4Z4 repeats. SMCHD1 c.1040+1G>A, a pathogenic splice-site variant, was identified in a FSHD1 family with a borderline number of D4Z4 repeats (10) and a variable phenotype (in which a LMNA1 sequence variant was previously described), and SMCHD1 c.2606 G>T, a putative missense variant (p.Gly869Val) with strong in vitro indications of pathogenicity, was identified in a family with an unusual muscular dystrophy with some FSHD-like features. The two families described here emphasise the genetic complexity of muscular dystrophies. As SMCHD1 has a wider role in global genomic methylation, the possibility exists that it could be involved in other complex undiagnosed muscle disorders. Thus far, only 15 constitutional mutations have been identified in SMCHD1, and these two sequence variants add to the molecular and phenotypic spectrum associated with FSHD