A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide : the ISIMIP Lake Sector

Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.Peer reviewe

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Assessing Theoretical Conclusions With Blinded Inference to Investigate a Potential Inference Crisis

Scientific advances across a range of disciplines hinge on the ability to make inferences about unobservable theoretical entities on the basis of empirical data patterns. Accurate inferences rely on both discovering valid, replicable data patterns and accurately interpreting those patterns in terms of their implications for theoretical constructs. The replication crisis in science has led to widespread efforts to improve the reliability of research findings, but comparatively little attention has been devoted to the validity of inferences based on those findings. Using an example from cognitive psychology, we demonstrate a blinded-inference paradigm for assessing the quality of theoretical inferences from data. Our results reveal substantial variability in experts’ judgments on the very same data, hinting at a possible inference crisis

The Associations between Asymmetric Handgrip Strength and Chronic Disease Status in American Adults: Results from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

This study examined the associations between asymmetric handgrip strength (HGS) and multimorbidity in American adults. Secondary analyses of data from persons aged at least 40 years from the 2011–2012 and 2013–2014 waves of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were conducted. A handheld dynamometer collected HGS on each hand and persons with a strength imbalance >10% between hands were classified as having asymmetric HGS. Adults with the presence of ≥2 of the following conditions had multimorbidity: cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, asthma, arthritis, cancer, obesity, stroke, hypertension, high cholesterol, and diabetes. Of the n = 3483 participants included, n = 2700 (77.5%) had multimorbidity. A greater proportion of adults with multimorbidity had HGS asymmetry (n = 1234 (45.7%)), compared to persons living without multimorbidity (n = 314 (40.1%); p < 0.05). Relative to individuals without asymmetry, adults with asymmetric HGS had 1.31 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03–1.67) greater odds for multimorbidity. Moreover, persons with HGS asymmetry had 1.22 (CI: 1.04–1.44) greater odds for accumulating morbidities. Asymmetric strength, as another indicator of diminished muscle function, is linked to chronic morbidity status. Healthcare providers should recommend healthy behaviors for reducing asymmetries to improve muscle function and mitigate morbidity risk after completing asymmetry screenings

Priming of landmarks during object-location tasks: effects on self-efficacy of older adults

Computer-based training programs are a new way that many personal skills are being developed, maintained, or enhanced. However, in order for a computer-based training program to be effective, users must be highly motivated to complete the required tasks. One way to improve motivation for continuing tasks is through increasing self-efficacy, or a person’s perceived ability in an area. While older adults might greatly benefit from computer-based training programs for memory, low self-efficacy for both memory and computer use can be a barrier to motivation, limiting potential benefits. However, a person’s self-efficacy can be improved by experiencing success in a task. The current study investigated whether priming a landmark could be used to generate such success in an object-location memory task, ultimately enhancing older adults’ self-efficacy. Participants were 62 older adults and 59 younger adults who were shown a series of videos of virtual rooms and had to make memory judgments about where they had seen certain items in those rooms. Half of the participants were primed for spatial landmarks for specific objects in the virtual environment, while half were not. While many previously established effects were replicated, priming of landmarks did not significantly impact memory or self-efficacy. However, exploration of secondary analyses emphasized the importance of improving self-efficacy in older adults for these types of tasks. Specifically, self-efficacy in older adults was lower than younger adults, even after controlling for memory performance. Considerations of the importance of self-efficacy for memory performance and motivation in older adults are explored. (Published By University of Alabama Libraries

The effects of high-intensity intermittent exercise training on fat loss and fasting insulin levels of young women

AbstractOBJECTIVE: to determine the effects of a 15-week high intensity intermittent exercise (HIIE) program on subcutaneous and trunk fat and insulin resistance of young women.DESIGN AND PROCEDURES: subjects were randomly assigned to one of three groups: HIIE (n = 15), steady state exercise (SSE; n=15), or control (CONT; n=15). HIIE and SSE groups underwent a 15-week exercise intervention. SUBJECTS: forty-five women with a mean BMI of 23.2 + 2.0 kg/m2 and age of 20.2 + 2.0 years. RESULTS: both exercise groups demonstrated a significant improvement, P < 0.05, in cardiovascular fitness. However, only the HIIE group had a significant reduction in total body mass (TBM), fat mass (FM), trunk fat, and fasting plasma insulin levels. There was significant fat loss, P < 0.05, in legs compared to arms in the HIIE group only. Lean compared to overweight women lost less fat after HIIE. Decreases in leptin concentrations were negatively correlated with increases in (r = -.57, P < 0.05) and positively correlated with decreases in TBM (r = .47; P < 0.0001). There was no significant change in adiponectin levels after training. CONCLUSIONS: HIIE three times per week for 15 weeks compared to the same frequency of SSE exercise was associated with significant reductions in total body fat, subcutaneous leg and trunk fat, and insulin resistance in young women. Keywords: intermittent sprinting, body fat, insuli

Muscle strength and its relationship with skeletal muscle mass indices as determined by segmental bio-impedance analysis

Purpose: Despite increasing interest in bio-impedance analysis (BIA) for estimation of segmental skeletal muscle mass (SMM), published results have not been entirely convincing. Furthermore, a better understanding of the relationship between muscle strength and SMM will be useful in interpreting outcomes of physical/training interventions particularly in groups with diverse body sizes (e.g. men vs women). This study aimed to measure SMM in the upper body (upper extremity and torso), to determine its correlation with muscle strength and to examine the effects of gender on muscle strength–muscle mass relationship. Methods: Segmental (upper extremity and torso) SMM and muscle strength in five distinct shoulder planes (forward flexion, abduction in scapular plane, abduction in coronal plane, internal and external rotation) were measured in 45 healthy participants (22 males, 23 females) with mean age 30.3 years. Statistical analysis included independent t tests, Pearson correlation, and multiple regression analysis. Results: Men and women differed significantly in body mass (BMI: 25.9 ± 4.3 vs 23 ± 3.6) and SMM (p < 0.01). A strong relationship correlation was found between the five shoulder strength measurements and upper extremity SMM (r = 0.66–0.80, p < 0.01), which was not affected by gender. There was a significant gender difference (p < 0.01) in absolute shoulder strength, but not after normalisation to the SMM. Conclusion: BIA-estimated SMM of upper extremity and torso was highly correlated with upper extremity (shoulder) strength independent of gender. SMM may, therefore, be useful for the normalisation of muscle strength allowing size-independent comparisons of muscle strength in individuals with diverse physical characteristics