Seasonal prediction of precipitation over Nigeria

The availability of quantitative means of probing anticipated rainfall is essential for the purpose of planning and policy formulation everywhere in the world. However reliable prediction of rainfall remains a challenge over West Africa and Nigeria in particular. This paper predicts sea-sonal rainfall in Nigeria with the hope of increasing the reliability of predicted seasonal rainfall. Seasonal rainfall data (June-September) from 21 Nigerian stations and monthly Extended Re-constructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) of the tropical Oceans spanning 1960-2012 con-stituted the input data for the formulation of prediction equations using regression analysis. Cross-validation was applied with training period of 1960-1985, verification period of 1986-2012 and vice versa. The correlations between the predicted and the observed seasonal rainfall of the training and verification periods of 1960-1985 were all significant at 5 % level except for one station. While for the training and verification periods of 1986-2012, correlations are not gener-ally significant although some were found to be above the significant level of 5%. For the recon-structed seasonal precipitation, correlations of ten stations were found to be significant at 5 %, but at 10 % level, their number increased to 13. The t-test analysis revealed that there is no sig-nificant difference between the means of predicted and observed seasonal rainfall amount for all stations except for only three stations (Osogbo, Calabar and Enugu). This suggests some degree of skill which is also an indication that Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is a good predictor of June, July, August and September (JJAS) seasonal rainfall in Nigeria.Keywords: Rainfall, Prediction, Tropical Ocean, Cross-validation, Sea Surface Temperatur

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Surgical site infection after gastrointestinal surgery in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: a prospective, international, multicentre cohort study

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common infections associated with health care, but its importance as a global health priority is not fully understood. We quantified the burden of SSI after gastrointestinal surgery in countries in all parts of the world. Methods: This international, prospective, multicentre cohort study included consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection within 2-week time periods at any health-care facility in any country. Countries with participating centres were stratified into high-income, middle-income, and low-income groups according to the UN's Human Development Index (HDI). Data variables from the GlobalSurg 1 study and other studies that have been found to affect the likelihood of SSI were entered into risk adjustment models. The primary outcome measure was the 30-day SSI incidence (defined by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for superficial and deep incisional SSI). Relationships with explanatory variables were examined using Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02662231. Findings: Between Jan 4, 2016, and July 31, 2016, 13 265 records were submitted for analysis. 12 539 patients from 343 hospitals in 66 countries were included. 7339 (58·5%) patient were from high-HDI countries (193 hospitals in 30 countries), 3918 (31·2%) patients were from middle-HDI countries (82 hospitals in 18 countries), and 1282 (10·2%) patients were from low-HDI countries (68 hospitals in 18 countries). In total, 1538 (12·3%) patients had SSI within 30 days of surgery. The incidence of SSI varied between countries with high (691 [9·4%] of 7339 patients), middle (549 [14·0%] of 3918 patients), and low (298 [23·2%] of 1282) HDI (p < 0·001). The highest SSI incidence in each HDI group was after dirty surgery (102 [17·8%] of 574 patients in high-HDI countries; 74 [31·4%] of 236 patients in middle-HDI countries; 72 [39·8%] of 181 patients in low-HDI countries). Following risk factor adjustment, patients in low-HDI countries were at greatest risk of SSI (adjusted odds ratio 1·60, 95% credible interval 1·05–2·37; p=0·030). 132 (21·6%) of 610 patients with an SSI and a microbiology culture result had an infection that was resistant to the prophylactic antibiotic used. Resistant infections were detected in 49 (16·6%) of 295 patients in high-HDI countries, in 37 (19·8%) of 187 patients in middle-HDI countries, and in 46 (35·9%) of 128 patients in low-HDI countries (p < 0·001). Interpretation: Countries with a low HDI carry a disproportionately greater burden of SSI than countries with a middle or high HDI and might have higher rates of antibiotic resistance. In view of WHO recommendations on SSI prevention that highlight the absence of high-quality interventional research, urgent, pragmatic, randomised trials based in LMICs are needed to assess measures aiming to reduce this preventable complication

Depression, psychological distress and Internet use among community-based Australian adolescents: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: There has been rapid increase in time spent using Internet as a platform for entertainment, socialising and information sourcing. This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between duration of time spent using Internet for leisure, depressive symptoms, and psychological distress among Australian adolescents. METHODS: Depressive symptoms were indicated by the youth self-report module from the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders Version IV criteria, and psychological distress was measured by Kessler Psychological Distress scale. Internet use was self-reported based on use on an average weekday, and an average weekend day. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to examine the relationship between Internet use and mental health outcomes. Models were adjusted for potential confounders: age; relative level of socio-economic disadvantage, and body mass index. RESULTS: Adolescents were aged 11-17 years (M = 14.5 years, SD = 2.04 years). Greatest time spent using internet (≥7 h a day) was significantly associated with experiencing depressive symptoms among females (OR = 2.09, 95% CI = 1.16, 3.76, p < 0.05), and high/very high levels of psychological distress for male (OR = 2.23, 95% CI = 1.36, 3.65, p < 0.01) and female (OR = 2.38, 95% CI = 1.55, 3.67, p < 0.01) adolescents. CONCLUSIONS: With current initiatives to improve health behaviours among adolescents to improve physical health outcomes such as overweight or obesity, it is imperative that the reciprocal relationship with mental health is known and included in such public health developments. Internet use may interact with mental health and therefore could be a modifiable risk factor to reach and improve mental health outcomes for this age group. Caution is advised in interpretation of findings, with some inconsistencies emerging from this evidence

Pooled analysis of WHO Surgical Safety Checklist use and mortality after emergency laparotomy

Background The World Health Organization (WHO) Surgical Safety Checklist has fostered safe practice for 10 years, yet its place in emergency surgery has not been assessed on a global scale. The aim of this study was to evaluate reported checklist use in emergency settings and examine the relationship with perioperative mortality in patients who had emergency laparotomy. Methods In two multinational cohort studies, adults undergoing emergency laparotomy were compared with those having elective gastrointestinal surgery. Relationships between reported checklist use and mortality were determined using multivariable logistic regression and bootstrapped simulation. Results Of 12 296 patients included from 76 countries, 4843 underwent emergency laparotomy. After adjusting for patient and disease factors, checklist use before emergency laparotomy was more common in countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI) (2455 of 2741, 89.6 per cent) compared with that in countries with a middle (753 of 1242, 60.6 per cent; odds ratio (OR) 0.17, 95 per cent c.i. 0.14 to 0.21, P <0001) or low (363 of 860, 422 per cent; OR 008, 007 to 010, P <0.001) HDI. Checklist use was less common in elective surgery than for emergency laparotomy in high-HDI countries (risk difference -94 (95 per cent c.i. -11.9 to -6.9) per cent; P <0001), but the relationship was reversed in low-HDI countries (+121 (+7.0 to +173) per cent; P <0001). In multivariable models, checklist use was associated with a lower 30-day perioperative mortality (OR 0.60, 0.50 to 073; P <0.001). The greatest absolute benefit was seen for emergency surgery in low- and middle-HDI countries. Conclusion Checklist use in emergency laparotomy was associated with a significantly lower perioperative mortality rate. Checklist use in low-HDI countries was half that in high-HDI countries.Peer reviewe

Global variation in anastomosis and end colostomy formation following left-sided colorectal resection

Background End colostomy rates following colorectal resection vary across institutions in high-income settings, being influenced by patient, disease, surgeon and system factors. This study aimed to assess global variation in end colostomy rates after left-sided colorectal resection. Methods This study comprised an analysis of GlobalSurg-1 and -2 international, prospective, observational cohort studies (2014, 2016), including consecutive adult patients undergoing elective or emergency left-sided colorectal resection within discrete 2-week windows. Countries were grouped into high-, middle- and low-income tertiles according to the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI). Factors associated with colostomy formation versus primary anastomosis were explored using a multilevel, multivariable logistic regression model. Results In total, 1635 patients from 242 hospitals in 57 countries undergoing left-sided colorectal resection were included: 113 (6·9 per cent) from low-HDI, 254 (15·5 per cent) from middle-HDI and 1268 (77·6 per cent) from high-HDI countries. There was a higher proportion of patients with perforated disease (57·5, 40·9 and 35·4 per cent; P < 0·001) and subsequent use of end colostomy (52·2, 24·8 and 18·9 per cent; P < 0·001) in low- compared with middle- and high-HDI settings. The association with colostomy use in low-HDI settings persisted (odds ratio (OR) 3·20, 95 per cent c.i. 1·35 to 7·57; P = 0·008) after risk adjustment for malignant disease (OR 2·34, 1·65 to 3·32; P < 0·001), emergency surgery (OR 4·08, 2·73 to 6·10; P < 0·001), time to operation at least 48 h (OR 1·99, 1·28 to 3·09; P = 0·002) and disease perforation (OR 4·00, 2·81 to 5·69; P < 0·001). Conclusion Global differences existed in the proportion of patients receiving end stomas after left-sided colorectal resection based on income, which went beyond case mix alone

A multiphase computational study of oil-air flow within the bearing sector of Aeroengines, ASME GT2015-43496

The bearing chamber of an aeroengine houses roller bearings and other structural parts. The spatial limitation, high operational speeds of the HP shaft and the proximity to the combustion chamber can make the operating conditions of the bearing chamber challenging. A roller bearing consists of an inner race, an outer race and a cage constraining a number of rolling elements. In the aeroengine application, oil is introduced into the bearing chamber via the inner race regions of the bearing into the rolling elements interstices. This provides lubrication for the roller bearings. The source of heat in the bearing chamber is mainly from rolling contact friction and the high temperature of combustion. Cooling results from the oil transport within the bearing chamber and thus an efficient transport of oil is critical to maintaining the integrity of the entire structure. The bearing chamber contains the oil which is eventually scavenged and recycled for recirculation. Experiments have been conducted over the years on bearing chamber flows but often simplified to create the best emulation of the real aeroengine. The complexity of the bearing chamber structure is also challenging for experimental measurements of the oil characteristic in the roller bearing elements and the bearing chamber compartment. Previous experiments have shown that the oil continuum breaks up in the bearing chamber compartment but it is not quantitatively clear how and what parameters affect these. Previous simulation attempt of bearing chamber, also, have been limited by the boundary conditions for the oil. This work presents a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) transient simulation of flow in the bearing sector in an attempt create boundary conditions for such models. The current results show that the oil emerges in the form of droplets into the bearing chamber compartment with speed of the order of 10% of the shaft rotation

An Overview of Application of Nanotechnology in Malaria Control

Infectious diseases caused by parasites are of immense global significance as about 30% of world’s population experiences parasitic infections. malaria is the most life threatening disease and accounts for one to two million deaths round the globe every year. Currently, there is no available effective vaccine against malaria. The shortcomings of malaria preventive and curative drug treatments have become a major reason for the failure to eradicate the disease. There is an urgent need for an effective antimalarial agent due to increasing drug resistance of Plasmodium falciparum. Nanotechnology has been identified as the new frontier in the fight against this disease. Nanomedicine is a new technology utilizing nanometer scale drug delivery systems as therapeutics, able to confer advantages which include improved drug pharmacokinetic profiles, organ, cell and parasite targeted drug delivery, reduce doses and reduction in drug toxicity. Nanomedicine can address the challenges associated with current anti-malarial drugs by reformulating the drugs in nanomedicine drug delivery systems (NMDDS). The development of these particulate carriers as vehicles for delivery of active compounds is a novel area of research that provides a new hope in malarial chemotherapy