Is shape in the eye of the beholder? Assessing landmarking error in geometric morphometric analyses on live fish

Geometric morphometrics is widely used to quantify morphological variation between biological specimens, but the fundamental influence of operator bias on data reproducibility is rarely considered, particularly in studies using photographs of live animals taken under field conditions. We examined this using four independent operators that applied an identical landmarking scheme to replicate photographs of 291 live Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) from two rivers. Using repeated measures tests, we found significant inter-operator differences in mean body shape, suggesting that the operators introduced a systematic error despite following the same landmarking scheme. No significant differences were detected when the landmarking process was repeated by the same operator on a random subset of photographs. Importantly, in spite of significant operator bias, small but statistically significant morphological differences between fish from the two rivers were found consistently by all operators. Pairwise tests of angles of vectors of shape change showed that these between-river differences in body shape were analogous across operator datasets, suggesting a general reproducibility of findings obtained by geometric morphometric studies. In contrast, merging landmark data when fish from each river are digitised by different operators had a significant impact on downstream analyses, highlighting an intrinsic risk of bias. Overall, we show that, even when significant inter-operator error is introduced during digitisation, following an identical landmarking scheme can identify morphological differences between populations. This study indicates that operators digitising at least a sub-set of all data groups of interest may be an effective way of mitigating inter-operator error and potentially enabling data sharing

Calibrating ensemble reliability whilst preserving spatial structure

Ensemble forecasts aim to improve decision-making by predicting a set of possible outcomes. Ideally, these would provide probabilities which are both sharp and reliable. In practice, the models, data assimilation and ensemble perturbation systems are all imperfect, leading to deficiencies in the predicted probabilities. This paper presents an ensemble post-processing scheme which directly targets local reliability, calibrating both climatology and ensemble dispersion in one coherent operation. It makes minimal assumptions about the underlying statistical distributions, aiming to extract as much information as possible from the original dynamic forecasts and support statistically awkward variables such as precipitation. The output is a set of ensemble members preserving the spatial, temporal and inter-variable structure from the raw forecasts, which should be beneficial to downstream applications such as hydrological models. The calibration is tested on three leading 15-d ensemble systems, and their aggregation into a simple multimodel ensemble. Results are presented for 12 h, 1° scale over Europe for a range of surface variables, including precipitation. The scheme is very effective at removing unreliability from the raw forecasts, whilst generally preserving or improving statistical resolution. In most cases, these benefits extend to the rarest events at each location within the 2-yr verification period. The reliability and resolution are generally equivalent or superior to those achieved using a Local Quantile-Quantile Transform, an established calibration method which generalises bias correction. The value of preserving spatial structure is demonstrated by the fact that 3×3 averages derived from grid-scale precipitation calibration perform almost as well as direct calibration at 3×3 scale, and much better than a similar test neglecting the spatial relationships. Some remaining issues are discussed regarding the finite size of the output ensemble, variables such as sea-level pressure which are very reliable to start with, and the best way to handle derived variables such as dewpoint depression

Identifying the science and technology dimensions of emerging public policy issues through horizon scanning

Public policy requires public support, which in turn implies a need to enable the public not just to understand policy but also to be engaged in its development. Where complex science and technology issues are involved in policy making, this takes time, so it is important to identify emerging issues of this type and prepare engagement plans. In our horizon scanning exercise, we used a modified Delphi technique [1]. A wide group of people with interests in the science and policy interface (drawn from policy makers, policy adviser, practitioners, the private sector and academics) elicited a long list of emergent policy issues in which science and technology would feature strongly and which would also necessitate public engagement as policies are developed. This was then refined to a short list of top priorities for policy makers. Thirty issues were identified within broad areas of business and technology; energy and environment; government, politics and education; health, healthcare, population and aging; information, communication, infrastructure and transport; and public safety and national security.Public policy requires public support, which in turn implies a need to enable the public not just to understand policy but also to be engaged in its development. Where complex science and technology issues are involved in policy making, this takes time, so it is important to identify emerging issues of this type and prepare engagement plans. In our horizon scanning exercise, we used a modified Delphi technique [1]. A wide group of people with interests in the science and policy interface (drawn from policy makers, policy adviser, practitioners, the private sector and academics) elicited a long list of emergent policy issues in which science and technology would feature strongly and which would also necessitate public engagement as policies are developed. This was then refined to a short list of top priorities for policy makers. Thirty issues were identified within broad areas of business and technology; energy and environment; government, politics and education; health, healthcare, population and aging; information, communication, infrastructure and transport; and public safety and national security

Surface sensitivity of four-probe STM resistivity measurements of bulk ZnO correlated to XPS

Multi-probe instruments based on scanning tunnelling microscopy (STM) are becoming increasingly common for their ability to perform nano- to atomic-scale investigations of nanostructures, surfaces and in situ reactions. A common configuration is the four-probe STM often coupled with in situ scanning electron microscopy (SEM) that allows precise positioning of the probes onto surfaces and nanostructures enabling electrical and scanning experiments to be performed on highly localised regions of the sample. In this paper, we assess the sensitivity of four-probe STM for in-line resistivity measurements of the bulk ZnO surface. The measurements allow comparisons to established models that are used to relate light plasma treatments (O and H) of the surfaces to the resistivity measurements. The results are correlated to x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and show that four-probe STM can detect changes in surface and bulk conduction mechanisms that are beyond conventional monochromatic XPS

Exploration of the Transition from the Hydrodynamiclike to the Strongly Kinetic Regime in Shock-Driven Implosions

Clear evidence of the transition from hydrodynamiclike to strongly kinetic shock-driven implosions is, for the first time, revealed and quantitatively assessed. Implosions with a range of initial equimolar D[superscript 3]He gas densities show that as the density is decreased, hydrodynamic simulations strongly diverge from and increasingly overpredict the observed nuclear yields, from a factor of ∼2 at 3.1  mg/cm[superscript 3] to a factor of 100 at 0.14  mg/cm[superscript 3]. (The corresponding Knudsen number, the ratio of ion mean-free path to minimum shell radius, varied from 0.3 to 9; similarly, the ratio of fusion burn duration to ion diffusion time, another figure of merit of kinetic effects, varied from 0.3 to 14.) This result is shown to be unrelated to the effects of hydrodynamic mix. As a first step to garner insight into this transition, a reduced ion kinetic (RIK) model that includes gradient-diffusion and loss-term approximations to several transport processes was implemented within the framework of a one-dimensional radiation-transport code. After empirical calibration, the RIK simulations reproduce the observed yield trends, largely as a result of ion diffusion and the depletion of the reacting tail ions.United States. Dept. of Energy (Grant DE-NA0001857)United States. Dept. of Energy (Grant DE-FC52-08NA28752)University of Rochester. Fusion Science Center (5-24431)National Laser User’s Facility (DE-NA0002035)University of Rochester. Laboratory for Laser Energetics (415935-G)Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (B597367

The northern hemisphere circumglobal teleconnection in a seasonal forecast model and its relationship to European summer forecast skill

Forecasting seasonal variations in European summer weather represents a considerable challenge. Here, we assess the performance of a seasonal forecasting model at representing a major mode of northern hemisphere summer climate variability, the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT), and the implications of errors in its representation on seasonal forecasts for the European summer (June, July, August). Using seasonal hindcasts initialised at the start of May, we find that the model skill for forecasting the interannual variability of 500 hPa geopotential height is poor, particularly over Europe and several other “centres of action” of the CGT. The model also has a weaker CGT pattern than is observed, particularly in August, when the observed CGT wavetrain is strongest. We investigate several potential causes of this poor skill. First, model variance in geopotential height in west-central Asia (an important region for the maintenance of the CGT) is lower than observed in July and August, associated with a poor representation of the link between this region and Indian monsoon precipitation. Second, analysis of the Rossby wave source shows that the source associated with monsoon heating is both too strong and displaced to the northeast in the model. This is related to errors in monsoon precipitation over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, where the model has more precipitation than is observed. Third, the model jet is systematically shifted northwards by several degrees latitude over large parts of the northern hemisphere, which may affect the propagation characteristics of Rossby waves in the model

Enhanced Long-Path Electrical Conduction in ZnO Nanowire Array Devices Grown via Defect-Driven Nucleation

Vertical arrays of nanostructures have been widely used as major components in some of the most ground-breaking modern research-based devices, and ZnO nanowires have received particular attention because of their favorable electronic properties. Using a local multiprobe technique to measure the properties of individual ZnO nanowires in vertical arrays, we show for the first time that for metal-catalyzed ZnO nanowire growth the electrical contribution of individual wires to a device is highly dependent on the fate of the catalyst nanoparticle during growth. To overcome the limitations of metal-catalyzed growth, nanowires grown from a defect-driven nucleation process are shown to provide high-quality device structures with excellent long-path electrical conduction

Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries: a pooled analysis of prospective cohorts and health surveys

Background: Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and without laboratory-based measurements, and the corresponding risk charts for 182 countries to predict 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD in adults aged 40–74 years. Methods: Based on our previous laboratory-based prediction model (Globorisk), we used data from eight prospective studies to estimate coefficients of the risk equations using proportional hazard regressions. The laboratory-based risk score included age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol; in the non-laboratory (office-based) risk score, we replaced diabetes and total cholesterol with BMI. We recalibrated risk scores for each sex and age group in each country using country-specific mean risk factor levels and CVD rates. We used recalibrated risk scores and data from national surveys (using data from adults aged 40–64 years) to estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of CVD risk for ten countries from different world regions as examples of the information the risk scores provide; we applied a risk threshold for high risk of at least 10% for high-income countries (HICs) and at least 20% for low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) on the basis of national and international guidelines for CVD prevention. We estimated the proportion of men and women who were similarly categorised as high risk or low risk by the two risk scores. Findings: Predicted risks for the same risk factor profile were generally lower in HICs than in LMICs, with the highest risks in countries in central and southeast Asia and eastern Europe, including China and Russia. In HICs, the proportion of people aged 40–64 years at high risk of CVD ranged from 1% for South Korean women to 42% for Czech men (using a ≥10% risk threshold), and in low-income countries ranged from 2% in Uganda (men and women) to 13% in Iranian men (using a ≥20% risk threshold). More than 80% of adults were similarly classified as low or high risk by the laboratory-based and office-based risk scores. However, the office-based model substantially underestimated the risk among patients with diabetes. Interpretation: Our risk charts provide risk assessment tools that are recalibrated for each country and make the estimation of CVD risk possible without using laboratory-based measurements

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

© The Author(s) 2018. Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups