Modeling sustainability : Population, inequality, consumption, and bidirectional coupling of the Earth and human systems

Over the last two centuries, the impact of the Human System has grown dramatically, becoming strongly dominant within the Earth System in many different ways. Consumption, inequality, and population have increased extremely fast, especially since about 1950, threatening to overwhelm the many critical functions and ecosystems of the Earth System. Changes in the Earth System, in turn, have important feedback effects on the Human System, with costly and potentially serious consequences. However, current models do not incorporate these critical feedbacks. We argue that in order to understand the dynamics of either system, Earth SystemModels must be coupled with Human SystemModels through bidirectional couplings representing the positive, negative, and delayed feedbacks that exist in the real systems. In particular, key Human System variables, such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration, are not coupled with the Earth System but are instead driven by exogenous estimates, such as United Nations population projections.This makes current models likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Earth-Human system, especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes, and thus requiring different policy interventions from current models.The importance and imminence of sustainability challenges, the dominant role of the Human System in the Earth System, and the essential roles the Earth System plays for the Human System, all call for collaboration of natural scientists, social scientists, and engineers in multidisciplinary research and modeling to develop coupled Earth-Human system models for devising effective science-based policies and measures to benefit current and future generations

A conceptual framework for the adoption of big data analytics by e-commerce startups: a case-based approach

E-commerce start-ups have ventured into emerging economies and are growing at a significantly faster pace. Big data has acted like a catalyst in their growth story. Big data analytics (BDA) has attracted e-commerce firms to invest in the tools and gain cutting edge over their competitors. The process of adoption of these BDA tools by e-commerce start-ups has been an area of interest as successful adoption would lead to better results. The present study aims to develop an interpretive structural model (ISM) which would act as a framework for efficient implementation of BDA. The study uses hybrid multi criteria decision making processes to develop the framework and test the same using a real-life case study. Systematic review of literature and discussion with experts resulted in exploring 11 enablers of adoption of BDA tools. Primary data collection was done from industry experts to develop an ISM framework and fuzzy MICMAC analysis is used to categorize the enablers of the adoption process. The framework is then tested by using a case study. Thematic clustering is performed to develop a simple ISM framework followed by fuzzy analytical network process (ANP) to discuss the association and ranking of enablers. The results indicate that access to relevant data forms the base of the framework and would act as the strongest enabler in the adoption process while the company rates technical skillset of employees as the most important enabler. It was also found that there is a positive correlation between the ranking of enablers emerging out of ISM and ANP. The framework helps in simplifying the strategies any e-commerce company would follow to adopt BDA in future. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature

Global, regional, and national cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-Adjusted life-years for 29 cancer groups, 1990 to 2017 : A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study

Importance: Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data. Objective: To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning. Evidence Review: We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-Adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence. Findings: In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs). Conclusions and Relevance: The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care. © 2019 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Earth Virtualization Engines (EVE)

To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change

Earth Virtualization Engines (EVE)

To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change

On the dynamics of monsoon disturbances.

Thesis. 1976. Sc.D.--Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Meteorology.Microfiche copy available in Archives and Lindgren.Vita.Bibliography: leaves 175-177.Sc.D

Variations of sea surface temperature, wind stress, and rainfall over the tropical Atlantic and South America

Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and composite analyses are used to investigate the development of sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns over the tropical Atlantic. The evolution of large-scale rainfall anomaly patterns over the equatorial Atlantic and South America are also investigated. The EOF analyses revealed that a pattern of anomalous SST and wind stress asymmetric relative to the equator is the dominant mode of interannual and longer variability over the tropical Atlantic. The most important findings of this study are as follows. Atmospheric circulation anomalies precede the development of basinwide anomalous SST patterns over the tropical Atlantic. Anomalous SST originate off the African coast simultaneously with atmospheric circulation anomalies and expand westward afterward. The time lag between wind stress relaxation (strengthening) and maximum SST warming (cooling) is about two months. Anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns over northern tropical Atlantic are phase locked to the seasonal cycle. Composite fields of SLP and wind stress over northern tropical Atlantic can be distinguished from random only within a few months preceding the March-May (MAM) season. Observational evidence is presented to show that the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon in the Pacific influences atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies over northern tropical Atlantic through atmospheric teleconnection patterns into higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The well-known droughts over northeastern Brazil (Nordeste) are a local manifestation of a much larger-scale rainfall anomaly pattern encompassing the whole equatorial Atlantic and Amazon region. Negative rainfall anomalies to the south of the equator during MAM, which is the rainy season for the Nordeste region, are related to an early withdrawal of the intertropical convergence zone toward the warm SST anomalies over the northern tropical Atlantic. Also, it is shown that precipitation anomalies over southern and northern parts of the Nordeste are out of phase: drought years over the northern Nordeste are commonly preceded by wetter years over the southern Nordeste, and vice versa.Pages: 2464-247

Total detrital suspended matter and detrital clay distribution during the southwest monsoon (July–August) and the postmonsoon (November–December) season during 2007 in the Bay of Bengal and in the Arabian Sea

Associated with the coupled land–ocean heating–cooling, seasonal reversal of monsoon winds regulates hydrography, precipitation, upwelling, fluvial influx and a host of biogeochemical processes. We evaluate the role of the monsoon winds, fluvial discharge and currents on continental flux dynamics from advection magnitude of clays over an anomalous high precipitation regime of the southeastern Arabian Sea. Coupled with the intense rains and a high fluvial discharge, we archived an elevated content of detrital clays (> 41 mg/l) during the southwest monsoon over the 40 m), however, had much reduced detrital clays (< 6 mg/l) year round. Therefore, two distinct environments (high and low detrital clays) prevailed over the shelf. Derived from the variations in the clays in the local riverine discharge and in the seawater loads, we found a dominant role of the southwest monsoon winds and that of the winter and the southwest monsoon (summer) coastal currents over the dispersal and sequestration processes. Over the inner shelf, an alongshore (equatorward) advection and merging of several, small, fluvial plumes by the southwest monsoon winds had sequestered most of the local fluvial discharge over the shallow region only. The outer-shelf received detritus mostly as a result of (a) the high salinity Arabian Sea Water during the southwest monsoon, (b) through the Bay of Bengal Water and (c) by way of aeolian supply from the Arabia and the Somalia