Improving epidemiologic data analyses through multivariate regression modelling

Regression modelling is one of the most widely utilized approaches in epidemiological analyses. It provides a method of identifying statistical associations, from which potential causal associations relevant to disease control may then be investigated. Multivariable regression – a single dependent variable (outcome, usually disease) with multiple independent variables (predictors) – has long been the standard model. Generalizing multivariable regression to multivariate regression – all variables potentially statistically dependent – offers a far richer modelling framework. Through a series of simple illustrative examples we compare and contrast these approaches. The technical methodology used to implement multivariate regression is well established – Bayesian network structure discovery – and while a relative newcomer to the epidemiological literature has a long history in computing science. Applications of multivariate analysis in epidemiological studies can provide a greater understanding of disease processes at the population level, leading to the design of better disease control and prevention programs

The Contribution of Coevolving Residues to the Stability of KDO8P Synthase

The evolutionary tree of 3-deoxy-D-manno-octulosonate 8-phosphate (KDO8P) synthase (KDO8PS), a bacterial enzyme that catalyzes a key step in the biosynthesis of bacterial endotoxin, is evenly divided between metal and non-metal forms, both having similar structures, but diverging in various degrees in amino acid sequence. Mutagenesis, crystallographic and computational studies have established that only a few residues determine whether or not KDO8PS requires a metal for function. The remaining divergence in the amino acid sequence of KDO8PSs is apparently unrelated to the underlying catalytic mechanism.The multiple alignment of all known KDO8PS sequences reveals that several residue pairs coevolved, an indication of their possible linkage to a structural constraint. In this study we investigated by computational means the contribution of coevolving residues to the stability of KDO8PS. We found that about 1/4 of all strongly coevolving pairs probably originated from cycles of mutation (decreasing stability) and suppression (restoring it), while the remaining pairs are best explained by a succession of neutral or nearly neutral covarions.Both sequence conservation and coevolution are involved in the preservation of the core structure of KDO8PS, but the contribution of coevolving residues is, in proportion, smaller. This is because small stability gains or losses associated with selection of certain residues in some regions of the stability landscape of KDO8PS are easily offset by a large number of possible changes in other regions. While this effect increases the tolerance of KDO8PS to deleterious mutations, it also decreases the probability that specific pairs of residues could have a strong contribution to the thermodynamic stability of the protein

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta