Strengthening the impact of the Inter-American Human Rights System through scholarly research: reflective report

This Report contains the collective findings of the Inter-American Human Rights Network, a multi-disciplinary group of international scholars of the Inter-American Human Rights System (IAHRS) brought together to gain richer insights into three sets of issues with particular salience for the IAHRS: compliance and impact; the politics and practice of institutional and legal change; and cross-regional perspectives on human rights systems

Aerosol analysis and forecast in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecast System: 2. Data assimilation

This study presents the new aerosol assimilation system, developed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, for the Global and regional Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite and in-situ data (GEMS) project. The aerosol modeling and analysis system is fully integrated in the operational four-dimensional assimilation apparatus. Its purpose is to produce aerosol forecasts and reanalyses of aerosol fields using optical depth data from satellite sensors. This paper is the second of a series which describes the GEMS aerosol effort. It focuses on the theoretical architecture and practical implementation of the aerosol assimilation system. It also provides a discussion of the background errors and observations errors for the aerosol fields, and presents a subset of results from the 2-year reanalysis which has been run for 2003 and 2004 using data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer on the Aqua and Terra satellites. Independent data sets are used to show that despite some compromises that have been made for feasibility reasons in regards to the choice of control variable and error characteristics, the analysis is very skillful in drawing to the observations and in improving the forecasts of aerosol optical depth

Host model uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing estimates: results from the AeroCom Prescribed intercomparison study

Simulated multi-model “diversity” in aerosol direct radiative forcing estimates is often perceived as a measure of aerosol uncertainty. However, current models used for aerosol radiative forcing calculations vary considerably in model components relevant for forcing calculations and the associated “host-model uncertainties” are generally convoluted with the actual aerosol uncertainty. In this AeroCom Prescribed intercomparison study we systematically isolate and quantify host model uncertainties on aerosol forcing experiments through prescription of identical aerosol radiative properties in twelve participating models. Even with prescribed aerosol radiative properties, simulated clear-sky and all-sky aerosol radiative forcings show significant diversity. For a purely scattering case with globally constant optical depth of 0.2, the global-mean all-sky top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing is −4.47Wm−2 and the inter-model standard deviation is 0.55Wm−2, corresponding to a relative standard deviation of 12 %. For a case with partially absorbing aerosol with an aerosol optical depth of 0.2 and single scattering albedo of 0.8, the forcing changes to 1.04Wm−2, and the standard deviation increases to 1.01W−2, corresponding to a significant relative standard deviation of 97 %. However, the top-of-atmosphere forcing variability owing to absorption (subtracting the scattering case from the case with scattering and absorption) is low, with absolute (relative) standard deviations of 0.45Wm−2 (8 %) clear-sky and 0.62Wm−2 (11 %) all-sky. Scaling the forcing standard deviation for a purely scattering case to match the sulfate radiative forcing in the Aero- Com Direct Effect experiment demonstrates that host model uncertainties could explain about 36% of the overall sulfate forcing diversity of 0.11Wm−2 in the AeroCom Direct Radiative Effect experiment

Revealing important nocturnal and day-to-day variations in fire smoke emissions through a multiplatform inversion

We couple airborne, ground-based, and satellite observations; conduct regional simulations; and develop and apply an inversion technique to constrain hourly smoke emissions from the Rim Fire, the third largest observed in California, USA. Emissions constrainedwithmultiplatform data show notable nocturnal enhancements (sometimes over a factor of 20), correlate better with daily burned area data, and are a factor of 2–4 higher than a priori estimates, highlighting the need for improved characterization of diurnal profiles and day-to-day variability when modeling extreme fires. Constraining only with satellite data results in smaller enhancements mainly due to missing retrievals near the emissions source, suggesting that top-down emission estimates for these events could be underestimated and a multi-platform approach is required to resolve them. Predictions driven by emissions constrained with multi-platform data present significant variations in downwind air quality and in aerosol feedback on meteorology, emphasizing the need for improved emissions estimates during exceptional events

Status and future of Numerical Atmospheric Aerosol Prediction with a focus on data requirements

Numerical prediction of aerosol particle properties has become an important activity at many research and operational weather centers. This development is due to growing interest from a diverse set of stakeholders, such as air quality regulatory bodies, aviation and military authorities, solar energy plant managers, climate services providers, and health professionals. Owing to the complexity of atmospheric aerosol processes and their sensitivity to the underlying meteorological conditions, the prediction of aerosol particle concentrations and properties in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) framework faces a number of challenges. The modeling of numerous aerosol-related parameters increases computational expense. Errors in aerosol prediction concern all processes involved in the aerosol life cycle including (a) errors on the source terms (for both anthropogenic and natural emissions), (b) errors directly dependent on the meteorology (e.g., mixing, transport, scavenging by precipitation), and (c) errors related to aerosol chemistry (e.g., nucleation, gas–aerosol partitioning, chemical transformation and growth, hygroscopicity). Finally, there are fundamental uncertainties and significant processing overhead in the diverse observations used for verification and assimilation within these systems. Indeed, a significant component of aerosol forecast development consists in streamlining aerosol-related observations and reducing the most important errors through model development and data assimilation. Aerosol particle observations from satellite- and ground-based platforms have been crucial to guide model development of the recent years and have been made more readily available for model evaluation and assimilation. However, for the sustainability of the aerosol particle prediction activities around the globe, it is crucial that quality aerosol observations continue to be made available from different platforms (space, near surface, and aircraft) and freely shared. This paper reviews current requirements for aerosol observations in the context of the operational activities carried out at various global and regional centers. While some of the requirements are equally applicable to aerosol–climate, the focus here is on global operational prediction of aerosol properties such as mass concentrations and optical parameters. It is also recognized that the term “requirements” is loosely used here given the diversity in global aerosol observing systems and that utilized data are typically not from operational sources. Most operational models are based on bulk schemes that do not predict the size distribution of the aerosol particles. Others are based on a mix of “bin” and bulk schemes with limited capability of simulating the size information. However the next generation of aerosol operational models will output both mass and number density concentration to provide a more complete description of the aerosol population. A brief overview of the state of the art is provided with an introduction on the importance of aerosol prediction activities. The criteria on which the requirements for aerosol observations are based are also outlined. Assimilation and evaluation aspects are discussed from the perspective of the user requirements

Return of naturally sourced Pb to Atlantic surface waters

Anthropogenic emissions completely overwhelmed natural marine lead (Pb) sources during the past century, predominantly due to leaded petrol usage. Here, based on Pb isotope measurements, we reassess the importance of natural and anthropogenic Pb sources to the tropical North Atlantic following the nearly complete global cessation of leaded petrol use. Significant proportions of up to 30-50% of natural Pb, derived from mineral dust, are observed in Atlantic surface waters, reflecting the success of the global effort to reduce anthropogenic Pb emissions. The observation of mineral dust derived Pb in surface waters is governed by the elevated atmospheric mineral dust concentration of the North African dust plume and the dominance of dry deposition for the atmospheric aerosol flux to surface waters. Given these specific regional conditions, emissions from anthropogenic activities will remain the dominant global marine Pb source, even in the absence of leaded petrol combustion

The effect of atmospheric acid processing on the global deposition of bioavailable phosphorus from dust

The role of dust as a source of bioavailable phosphorus (Bio-P) is quantified using a new parameterization for apatite dissolution in combination with global soil data maps and a global aerosol transport model. Mineral dust provides 31.2 Gg-P yr-1 of Bio-P to the oceans, with 14.3 Gg-P yr-1 from labile P present in the dust, and an aditional 16.9 Gg-P yr from acid dissolution of apatite in the atmosphere, representing an increase of 120%. The North Atlantic, north west Pacific, and Mediterranean Sea are identified as important sites of Bio-P deposition from mineral dust. The acid dissolution process increases the fraction of total-P that is bioavailable from ~10% globally from the labile pool to 23% in the Atlantic Ocean, 45% in the Pacific Ocean, and 21% in the Indian Ocean, with an ocean global mean value of 22%. Strong seasonal variations, especially in the North Pacific, northwest Atlantic, and Indian Ocean, are driven by large-scale meteorology and pollution sources from industrial and biomass-burning regions. Globally constant values of total-P content and bioavailable fraction used previously do not capture the simulated variability. We find particular sensitivity to the representation of particle-to-particle variability of apatite, which supplies Bio-P through acid-dissolution, and calcium carbonate, which helps to buffer the dissolution process. A modest 10% external mixing results in an increase of Bio-P deposition by 18%. The total Bio-P calculated here (31.2 Gg-P yr-1) represents a minimum compared to previous estimates due to the relatively low total-P in the global soil map used

Friedrich Hayek and his visits to Chile

F. A. Hayek took two trips to Chile, the first in 1977, the second in 1981. The visits were controversial. On the first trip he met with General Augusto Pinochet, who had led a coup that overthrew Salvador Allende in 1973. During his 1981 visit, Hayek gave interviews that were published in the Chilean newspaper El Mercurio and in which he discussed authoritarian regimes and the problem of unlimited democracy. After each trip, he complained that the western press had painted an unfair picture of the economic situation under the Pinochet regime. Drawing on archival material, interviews, and past research, we provide a full account of this controversial episode in Hayek’s life

A marine biogenic source of atmospheric ice nucleating particles

The amount of ice present in clouds can affect cloud lifetime, precipitation and radiative properties1,2. The formation of ice in clouds is facilitated by the presence of airborne ice nucleating particles1,2. Sea spray is one of the major global sources of atmospheric particles, but it is unclear to what extent these particles are capable of nucleating ice3-11. Sea spray aerosol contains large amounts of organic material that is ejected into the atmosphere during bubble bursting at the organically enriched sea-air interface or sea surface microlayer12-19. Here we show that organic material in the sea surface microlayer nucleates ice under conditions relevant for mixed-phase cloud and high-altitude ice cloud formation. The ice nucleating material is likely biogenic and less than ~0.2 μm in size. We find that exudates separated from cells of the marine diatom T. Pseudonana nucleate ice and propose that organic material associated with phytoplankton cell exudates is a likely candidate for the observed ice nucleating ability of the microlayer samples. Global model simulations of marine organic aerosol in combination with our measurements suggest that marine organic material may be an important source of ice nucleating particles in remote marine environments such as the Southern Ocean, North Pacific and North Atlantic

Women's Education Level, Maternal Health Facilities, Abortion Legislation and Maternal Deaths: A Natural Experiment in Chile from 1957 to 2007

The aim of this study was to assess the main factors related to maternal mortality reduction in large time series available in Chile in context of the United Nations' Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).Time series of maternal mortality ratio (MMR) from official data (National Institute of Statistics, 1957-2007) along with parallel time series of education years, income per capita, fertility rate (TFR), birth order, clean water, sanitary sewer, and delivery by skilled attendants were analysed using autoregressive models (ARIMA). Historical changes on the mortality trend including the effect of different educational and maternal health policies implemented in 1965, and legislation that prohibited abortion in 1989 were assessed utilizing segmented regression techniques.During the 50-year study period, the MMR decreased from 293.7 to 18.2/100,000 live births, a decrease of 93.8%. Women's education level modulated the effects of TFR, birth order, delivery by skilled attendants, clean water, and sanitary sewer access. In the fully adjusted model, for every additional year of maternal education there was a corresponding decrease in the MMR of 29.3/100,000 live births. A rapid phase of decline between 1965 and 1981 (-13.29/100,000 live births each year) and a slow phase between 1981 and 2007 (-1.59/100,000 live births each year) were identified. After abortion was prohibited, the MMR decreased from 41.3 to 12.7 per 100,000 live births (-69.2%). The slope of the MMR did not appear to be altered by the change in abortion law.Increasing education level appears to favourably impact the downward trend in the MMR, modulating other key factors such as access and utilization of maternal health facilities, changes in women's reproductive behaviour and improvements of the sanitary system. Consequently, different MDGs can act synergistically to improve maternal health. The reduction in the MMR is not related to the legal status of abortion