Solar activity and Svalbard temperatures

The long temperature series at Svalbard (Longyearbyen) show large variations, and a positive trend since its start in 1912. During this period solar activity has increased, as indicated by shorter solar cycles. The temperature at Svalbard is negatively correlated with the length of the solar cycle. The strongest negative correlation is found with lags 10-12 years. The relations between the length of a solar cycle and the mean temperature in the following cycle, is used to model Svalbard annual mean temperature, and seasonal temperature variations. Residuals from the annual and winter models show no autocorrelations on the 5 per cent level, which indicates that no additional parameters are needed to explain the temperature variations with 95 per cent significance. These models show that 60 per cent of the annual and winter temperature variations are explained by solar activity. For the spring, summer and fall temperatures autocorrelations in the residuals exists, and additional variables may contribute to the variations. These models can be applied as forecasting models. We predict an annual mean temperature decrease for Svalbard of 3.5\pm2 oC from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 (2009-20) and a decrease in the winter temperature of \approx6 oC.Comment: 14 pages, including 5 figure

The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24

Relations between the length of a sunspot cycle and the average temperature in the same and the next cycle are calculated for a number of meteorological stations in Norway and in the North Atlantic region. No significant trend is found between the length of a cycle and the average temperature in the same cycle, but a significant negative trend is found between the length of a cycle and the temperature in the next cycle. This provides a tool to predict an average temperature decrease of at least 1.0 "C from solar cycle 23 to 24 for the stations and areas analyzed. We find for the Norwegian local stations investigated that 25-56% of the temperature increase the last 150 years may be attributed to the Sun. For 3 North Atlantic stations we get 63-72% solar contribution. This points to the Atlantic currents as reinforcing a solar signal.Comment: Accepted for publication in Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics February 9, 201

Solar Activity and Svalbard Temperatures

The long temperature series at Svalbard (Longyearbyen) show large variations and a positive trend since its start in 1912. During this period solar activity has increased, as indicated by shorter solar cycles. The temperature at Svalbard is negatively correlated with the length of the solar cycle. The strongest negative correlation is found with lags 10-12 years. The relations between the length of a solar cycle and the mean temperature in the following cycle are used to model Svalbard annual mean temperature and seasonal temperature variations. Residuals from the annual and winter models show no autocorrelations on the 5 per cent level, which indicates that no additional parameters are needed to explain the temperature variations with 95 per cent significance. These models show that 60 per cent of the annual and winter temperature variations are explained by solar activity. For the spring, summer, and fall temperatures autocorrelations in the residuals exist, and additional variables may contribute to the variations. These models can be applied as forecasting models. We predict an annual mean temperature decrease for Svalbard of 3.5 ± 2 • C from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 (2009-20) and a decrease in the winter temperature of ≈ 6 • C

Assessing the rock glacier kinematics on three different timescales: a case study from the southern Swiss Alps

Surface temperature increases since the 1990s have often been associated with an increase in the speed of rock glaciers. Evidence of similar links on the centennial to millennial scale are, however, still lacking due to less focus to date on the medium- and long-term kinematics of these landforms. In order to assess (palaeo)climatic variations in rock glacier kinematics, we analysed the movements of the Stabbio di Largario rock glacier in the southern Swiss Alps using three different timescales. The Schmidt hammer exposure-age dating (SHD) was applied to study long-term kinematics in order to extrapolate the minimal age of the formation of the rock glacier, which may have started its development after the Mid-Holocene climate optimum, and to detect possible accelerations of the horizontal surface velocity during the Medieval Warm Period. Georeferentiation and orthorectification of six historical photographs of the rock glacier taken between ad 1910 and today were analysed using monoplotting to detect the rock glacier displacement on the decennial scale from the end of the Little Ice Age. Finally, differential global positioning system (dGPS) monitoring data available since ad 2009 were used to assess annual and seasonal creep rates of the rock glacier at present. Our results show a link between the periods of increase in mean air temperature on different timescales and variations in rock glacier kinematics and provide important new insights into rock glacier development and evolution on the long-term scale

Synchronized proxy-based temperature reconstructions reveal mid- to late Holocene climate oscillations in High Arctic Svalbard

Existing paleoclimate data are exceedingly sparse from southern Spitsbergen, a High Arctic region predicted to experience significant environmental changes because of amplified warming. We analyzed biotic and isotopic paleolimnological proxies to reconstruct past climate from a lacustrine sediment core, with a basal age of similar to 5500aBP, in southern Spitsbergen (77 degrees N). We used fossil Chironomidae assemblages to quantitatively reconstruct past mean July air temperatures and stable oxygen isotope values (delta O-18) of these fossils to estimate changes in mean annual air temperature. These proxy records are strikingly similar and show that the coldest anomaly since the mid-Holocene occurred between 350 and 50calaBP, during the 'Little Ice Age', whereas the warmest period in the summer temperature record occurred between 5500-5000 and similar to 2000calaBP. Our findings indicate that the natural long-term air temperature dynamics in our study area are most likely connected to solar minima and positive feedback mechanisms from sea-surface temperature maxima. The results also highlight that the recent temperature increase is unprecedented in its rate with a similar to 2 degrees C increase in the summer temperatures during the past similar to 50 years. (C) 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.Peer reviewe

Ice-margin and meltwater dynamics during the mid-Holocene in the Kangerlussuaq area of west Greenland

Land-terminating parts of the west Greenland ice sheet have exhibited highly dynamic meltwater regimes over the last few decades including episodes of extremely intense runoff driven by ice surface ablation, ponding of meltwater in an increasing number and size of lakes, and sudden outburst floods, or 'jökulhlaups', from these lakes. However, whether this meltwater runoff regime is unusual in a Holocene context has not been questioned. This study assembled high-resolution topographical data, geological and landcover data, and produced a glacial geomorphological map covering ~1200 km2. Digital analysis of the landforms reveals a mid-Holocene land-terminating ice margin that was predominantly cold-based. This ice margin underwent sustained active retreat but with multiple minor advances. Over c. 1000 years meltwater runoff became impounded within numerous and extensive proglacial lakes and there were temporary connections between some of these lakes via spillways. The ice-dams of some of these lakes had several quasi-stable thicknesses. Meltwater was apparently predominantly from supraglacial sources although some distributary palaeochannel networks and some larger bedrock palaeochannels most likely relate to mid-Holocene subglacial hydrology. In comparison to the geomorphological record at other Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet margins the depositional landforms in this study area are few in number and variety and small in scale, most likely due to a restricted sediment supply. They include perched fans and deltas and perched braidplain terraces. Overall, meltwater sourcing, routing and the proglacial runoff regime during the mid-Holocene in this land-terminating part of the ice sheet was spatiotemporally variable, but in a manner very similar to that of the present day

Origin and temporal variability of unusually low δ13C-DOC values in two High Arctic catchments

The stable carbon isotopic composition of dissolved organic matter (δ13C-DOC) reveals information about its source and extent of biological processing. Here we report the lowest δ13C-DOC values (−43.8‰) measured to date in surface waters. The streams were located in the High Arctic, a region currently experiencing rapid changes in climate and carbon cycling. Based on the widespread occurrence of methane cycling in permafrost regions and the detection of the pmoA gene, a proxy for aerobic methanotrophs we conclude that the low δ13C-DOC values are due to organic matter partially derived from methanotrophs consuming biologically produced, 13C-depleted methane. These findings demonstrate the significant impact that biological activity has on the stream water chemistry exported from permafrost and glaciated environments in the Arctic. Given that the catchments studied here are representative of larger areas of the Arctic, occurrences of low δ13C-DOC values may be more widespread than previously recognized, with implications for understanding C cycling in these environments.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Internal structure and significance of ice-marginal moraine in the Kebnekaise Mountains, northern Sweden

Despite a long history of glaciological research, the palaeo-environmental significance of moraine systems in the Kebnekaise Mountains, Sweden, has remained uncertain. These landforms offer the potential to elucidate glacier response prior to the period of direct monitoring and provide an insight into the ice-marginal processes operating at polythermal valley glaciers. This study set out to test existing interpretations of Scandinavian ice-marginal moraines, which invoke ice stagnation, pushing, stacking/dumping and push-deformation as important moraine forming processes. Moraines at Isfallsglaciären were investigated using ground-penetrating radar to document the internal structural characteristics of the landform assemblage. Radar surveys revealed a range of substrate composition and reflectors, indicating a debris- ice interface and bounding surfaces within the moraine. The moraine is demonstrated to contain both ice-rich and debris-rich zones, reflecting a complex depositional history and a polygenetic origin. As a consequence of glacier overriding, the morphology of these landforms provides a misleading indicator of glacial history. Traditional geochronological methods are unlikely to be effective on this type of land- form as the fresh surface may post-date the formation of the landform following reoccupation of the moraine rampart by the glacier. This research highlights that the interpretation of geochronological data sets from similar moraine systems should be undertaken with caution