The excess volatility of foreign exchange rates: Statistical puzzle or theoretical artifact?

The inability to reconcile observed levels of foreign exchange rate volatility with predictions derived from rational expectations models represents one of the most persistent challenges in international nance. This paper shows that such excess volatility puzzles arise from informational assumptions by contrasting exchange rate equilibria under two different hypotheses: rational expectations and their generalization, rational beliefs. Under the latter agents hold data rather than model consistent expectations requiring learning and inference. Uncertainty arises endogenously as agents with diverse beliefs might trade even in the absence of new information. An analysis of currency volatility mechanisms now reveals that excess volatility is a theoretical consequence of rational expectations' structural knowledge assumptions. Markets only transmit volatility from exogenous variables to exchange rates without any amplication mechanism. Hence, rational expectations equilibria provide a lower volatility bound on more general exchange rate processes solving the excess volatility puzzle in terms of endogenous volatility generation. Finally, the results are applied to explore the structure of currency crises as short-lived rational deviations from economic fundamentals. --

Institutions and Functions

What is an institution? And what distinguishes one type of institution from another? We answer these questions using a functionalist approach: types of institutions are identified by their function, or the coordination problems they solve; token institutions are specific solutions to these problems, or equilibria of strategic games. The functionalist approach provides some insights into the limits of reform, or the extent to which institutions \u2013 like marriage, property, or democracy \u2013 can be modified without turning them into entities of a different kind

Long-term outcome and patterns of failure in patients with advanced head and neck cancer

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Purpose</p> <p>To access the long-time outcome and patterns of failure in patients with advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC).</p> <p>Methods and materials</p> <p>Between 1992 and 2005 127 patients (median age 55 years, UICC stage III n = 6, stage IV n = 121) with primarily inoperable, advanced HNSCC were treated with definite platinum-based radiochemotherapy (median dose 66.4 Gy). Analysed end-points were overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), loco-regional progression-free survival (LPFS), development of distant metastases (DM), prognostic factors and causes of death.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The mean follow-up time was 34 months (range, 3-156 months), the 3-, 5- and 10-year OS rates were 39%, 28% and 14%, respectively. The median OS was 23 months. Forty-seven patients achieved a complete remission and 78 patients a partial remission. The median LPFS was 17 months, the 3-, 5- and 10-year LPFS rates were 41%, 33% and 30%, respectively. The LPFS was dependent on the nodal stage (p = 0.029). The median DFS was 11 months (range, 2-156 months), the 3-, 5- and 10-year DFS rates were 30%, 24% and 22%, respectively. Prognostic factors in univariate analyses were alcohol abuse (n = 102, p = 0.015), complete remission (n = 47, p < 0.001), local recurrence (n = 71, p < 0.001), development of DM (n = 45, p < 0.001; median OS 16 months) and borderline significance in nodal stage N2 versus N3 (p = 0.06). Median OS was 26 months with lung metastases (n = 17). Nodal stage was a predictive factor for the development of DM (p = 0.025). Cause of death was most commonly tumor progression.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In stage IV HNSCC long-term survival is rare and DM is a significant predictor for mortality. If patients developed DM, lung metastases had the most favourable prognosis, so intensified palliative treatment might be justified in DM limited to the lungs.</p

Credit Information Sharing and Loan Default in Developing Countries: The Moderating Effect of Banking Market Concentration and National Governance Quality

Departing from the existing literature, which associates credit information sharing with improved access to credit in advanced economies, we examine whether credit information sharing can also reduce loan default rate for banks domiciled in developing countries. Using a large dataset covering 879 unique banks from 87 developing countries from every continent, over a nine-year period (i.e., over 6,300 observations), we uncover three new findings. First, we find that credit information sharing reduces loan default rate. Second, we show that the relationship between credit information sharing and loan default rate is conditional on banking market concentration. Third, our findings suggest that governance quality at the country level does not have a strong moderating role on the effect of credit information sharing on loan default rate

The DAC system and associations with acute leukemias and myelodysplastic syndromes

Imbalances of histone acetyltransferase (HAT) and deacetylase activity (DAC) that result in deregulated gene expression are commonly observed in leukemias. These alterations provide the basis for novel therapeutic approaches that target the epigenetic mechanisms implicated in leukemogenesis. As the acetylation status of histones has been linked to transcriptional regulation of genes involved particularly in differentiation and apoptosis, DAC inhibitors (DACi) have attracted considerable attention for treatment of hematologic malignancies. DACi encompass a structurally diverse family of compounds that are being explored as single agents as well as in combination with chemotherapeutic drugs, small molecule inhibitors of signaling pathways and hypomethylating agents. While DACi have shown clear evidence of activity in acute myeloid leukemia, myelodysplastic syndromes and lymphoid malignancies, their precise role in treatment of these different entities remain to be elucidated. Successful development of these compounds as elements of novel targeted treatment strategies for leukemia will require that clinical studies be performed in conjunction with translational research including efforts to identify predictive biomarkers

Search for a new resonance decaying to a W or Z boson and a Higgs boson in the ll/lv/vv + bb final states with the ATLAS detector

A search for a new resonance decaying to a W or Z boson and a Higgs boson in the ll/lv/vv + bb final states is performed using 20.3 fb −1 of pp collision data recorded at √ s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The search is conducted by examining the W H / Z H invariant mass distribution for a localized excess. No significant deviation from the Standard Model background prediction is observed. The results are interpreted in terms of constraints on the Minimal Walking Technicolor model and on a simplified approach based on a phenomenological Lagrangian of Heavy Vector Triplets

Search for heavy long-lived multi-charged particles in pp collisions at √s = 8 TeV using the ATLAS detector

A search for heavy long-lived multi-charged particles is performed using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Data collected in 2012 at s√ = 8 TeV from pp collisions corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb−1 are examined. Particles producing anomalously high ionisation, consistent with long-lived massive particles with electric charges from |q|=2e to |q|=6e are searched for. No signal candidate events are observed, and 95% confidence level cross-section upper limits are interpreted as lower mass limits for a Drell–Yan production model. The mass limits range between 660 and 785 GeV

Measurements of long-range azimuthal anisotropies and associated Fourier coefficients for pp collisions at √s=5.02 and 13 TeV and p+Pb collisions at √sNN=5.02 TeV with the ATLAS detector

ATLAS measurements of two-particle correlations are presented for √s=5.02 and 13 TeV ppcollisions and for √sNN=5.02 TeV p+Pb collisions at the LHC. The correlation functions are measured as a function of relative azimuthal angle Δϕ, and pseudorapidity separation Δη, using charged particles detected within the pseudorapidity interval |η|2, is studied using a template fitting procedure to remove a “back-to-back” contribution to the correlation function that primarily arises from hard-scattering processes. In addition to the elliptic, cos (2Δϕ), modulation observed in a previous measurement, the pp correlation functions exhibit significant cos (3Δϕ) and cos (4Δϕ) modulation. The Fourier coefficients vn, n associated with the cos (nΔϕ) modulation of the correlation functions for n=2–4 are measured as a function of charged-particle multiplicity and charged-particle transverse momentum. The Fourier coefficients are observed to be compatible with cos (nϕ) modulation of per-event single-particle azimuthal angle distributions. The single-particle Fourier coefficients vn are measured as a function of charged-particle multiplicity, and charged-particle transverse momentum for n=2–4. The integrated luminosities used in this analysis are, 64nb−1 for the √s=13 TeV pp data, 170 nb−1 for the √ s = 5.02 TeV pp data, and 28 nb−1 for the √sNN = 5.02 TeV p+Pb data