Diagnóstico financiero y análisis bursátil Ecopetrol

Este trabajo de diplomado como proyecto de grado consistió en analizar la realidad financiera de Ecopetrol S. A., se revisaron, analizaron e interpretaron minuciosamente el balance general, estado de resultado, análisis de forma horizontal y vertical de los años 2019, 2020, 2021, donde se busca identificar los altibajos que dejo la pandemia Covid-19, teniendo como problemática específica la rentabilidad y generación del valor económico de ECOPETROL S.A. teniendo en cuenta los diferentes cambios que dejo la emergencia sanitaria en los mercado Nacional e Internacional, asimismo se buscan alternativas para mejorar la producción y ventas durante los años analizados y promover un punto de equilibrio. De igual forma se realizaron diferentes formas para evaluar indicadores que reflejan el apalancamiento de Ecopetrol, entre estos tenemos el WACC, ROCE, RNOA, FLEV, NNEP, se calcula el coste del patrimonio, se llevan a cabo temas como el GAO, GAT, Margen bruto de utilidad, Rentabilidad sobre el patrimonio, Valor Económico Agregado (EVA), Rentabilidad sobre los activos, Rotación de los activos, rentabilidad sobre las ventas. Este trabajo refleja las estrategias que implemento Ecopetrol S.A. para afrontar la caída de los precios del barril y los demás productos derivados de hidrocarburo y refinerías, que los llevaron a obtener menos ganancias durante este periodo, pero se logró identificar que la empresa bajo en sus utilidades, pero no genero pérdidas durante el año 2020 donde la emergencia sanitaria afecto al mercado nacional e internacional, y logrando para el año 2021 recuperarse en sus utilidades y posicionarse nuevamente en unas de las empresas más importante para el gobierno de Colombia.This diploma work as a degree project consisted of analyzing the financial reality of Ecopetrol S.A., the balance sheet, income statement, horizontal and vertical analysis of the years 2019, 2020, 2021 were carefully reviewed, analyzed and interpreted, where seeks to identify the ups and downs left by the Covid-19 pandemic, having as a specific problem the profitability and generation of economic value of ECOPETROL S.A. Taking into account the different changes that the health emergency left in the National and International markets, alternatives are also sought to improve production and sales during the years analyzed and promote a balance point. In the same way, different ways were carried out to evaluate indicators that reflect the leverage of Ecopetrol, among these we have the WACC, ROCE, RNOA, FLEV, NNEP, the cost of equity is calculated, topics such as GAO, GAT, Margin are carried out. gross profit, Return on Equity, Economic Value Added (EVA), Return on assets, asset turnover, return on sales. This work reflects the strategies implemented by Ecopetrol S.A. to face the fall in the prices of the barrel and the other products derived from hydrocarbons and refineries, which led them to obtain less profits during this period, but it was possible to identify that the company decreased in its profits, but did not generate losses during the year 2020 where the health emergency affected the national and international market, and achieving by 2021 to recover its profits and position itself again in one of the most important companies for the Colombian government

Telling adults about it: children’s experience of disclosing interpersonal violence in community sport

A challenge in safeguarding children from interpersonal violence (IV) in sport is the reliance on self-disclosures and a limited understanding of the frequency, barriers to and process of disclosures of IV. Through a mixed-methods design, combining survey and interviews, we explored the frequencies of childhood disclosures of experiences of IV in Australian community sport as well as who children disclosed to and how the interaction unfolded. Those who experienced peer violence disclosed at the highest frequency (35%), followed by coach (27%) or parent (13%) perpetrated IV. A parent/carer was most often the adult that the child disclosed to. Interviews highlighted how the normalisation of violence influenced all aspects of the disclosure and elements of stress buffering (normalising or rationalising) particularly underpinned the disclosure interaction. Policies and practices should explicitly identify all forms of IV in sport as prohibited conduct; education and intervention initiatives should target parents as first responders to disclosures

The randomised thoracoscopic talc poudrage+indwelling pleural catheters versus thoracoscopic talc poudrage only in malignant pleural effusion trial (TACTIC): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION: Malignant pleural effusion (MPE) is common, with 50 000 new cases per year in the UK. MPE causes disabling breathlessness and indicates advanced disease with a poor prognosis. Treatment approaches focus on symptom relief and optimising quality of life (QoL). Patients who newly present with MPE commonly require procedural intervention for both diagnosis and therapeutic benefit.Thoracoscopic pleural biopsies are highly sensitive in diagnosing pleural malignancy. Talc poudrage may be delivered at thoracoscopy (TTP) to prevent effusion recurrence by effecting pleurodesis. Indwelling pleural catheters (IPCs) offer an alternative strategy for fluid control, enabling outpatient management and are often used as 'rescue' therapy following pleurodesis failure or in cases of 'trapped lung'. It is unknown whether combining a TTP with IPC insertion will improve patient symptoms or reduce time spent in the hospital.The randomised thoracoscopic talc poudrage + indwelling pleural catheters versus thoracoscopic talc poudrage only in malignant pleural effusion trial (TACTIC) is the first randomised controlled trial (RCT) to examine the benefit of a combined TTP and IPC procedure, evaluating cost-effectiveness and patient-centred outcomes such as symptoms and QoL. The study remains in active recruitment and has the potential to radically transform the pathway for all patients presenting with MPE. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: TACTIC is an unblinded, multicentre, RCT comparing the combination of TTP with an IPC to TTP alone. Co-primary outcomes are time spent in the hospital and mean breathlessness score over 4 weeks postprocedure. The study will recruit 124 patients and aims to define the optimal pathway for patients presenting with symptomatic MPE. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: TACTIC is sponsored by North Bristol NHS Trust and has been granted ethical approval by the London-Brent Research Ethics Committee (REC ref: 21/LO/0495). Publication of results in a peer-reviewed journal and conference presentations are anticipated. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 11058680

Pathological Computed Tomography Features Associated with Adverse Outcomes after Mild Traumatic Brain Injury:A TRACK-TBI Study with External Validation in CENTER-TBI

Importance: A head computed tomography (CT) with positive results for acute intracranial hemorrhage is the gold-standard diagnostic biomarker for acute traumatic brain injury (TBI). In moderate to severe TBI (Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] scores 3-12), some CT features have been shown to be associated with outcomes. In mild TBI (mTBI; GCS scores 13-15), distribution and co-occurrence of pathological CT features and their prognostic importance are not well understood. Objective: To identify pathological CT features associated with adverse outcomes after mTBI. Design, Setting, and Participants: The longitudinal, observational Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in Traumatic Brain Injury (TRACK-TBI) study enrolled patients with TBI, including those 17 years and older with GCS scores of 13 to 15 who presented to emergency departments at 18 US level 1 trauma centers between February 26, 2014, and August 8, 2018, and underwent head CT imaging within 24 hours of TBI. Evaluations of CT imaging used TBI Common Data Elements. Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOSE) scores were assessed at 2 weeks and 3, 6, and 12 months postinjury. External validation of results was performed via the Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) study. Data analyses were completed from February 2020 to February 2021. Exposures: Acute nonpenetrating head trauma. Main Outcomes and Measures: Frequency, co-occurrence, and clustering of CT features; incomplete recovery (GOSE scores <8 vs 8); and an unfavorable outcome (GOSE scores <5 vs ≥5) at 2 weeks and 3, 6, and 12 months. Results: In 1935 patients with mTBI (mean [SD] age, 41.5 [17.6] years; 1286 men [66.5%]) in the TRACK-TBI cohort and 2594 patients with mTBI (mean [SD] age, 51.8 [20.3] years; 1658 men [63.9%]) in an external validation cohort, hierarchical cluster analysis identified 3 major clusters of CT features: contusion, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and/or subdural hematoma; intraventricular and/or petechial hemorrhage; and epidural hematoma. Contusion, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and/or subdural hematoma features were associated with incomplete recovery (odds ratios [ORs] for GOSE scores <8 at 1 year: TRACK-TBI, 1.80 [95% CI, 1.39-2.33]; CENTER-TBI, 2.73 [95% CI, 2.18-3.41]) and greater degrees of unfavorable outcomes (ORs for GOSE scores <5 at 1 year: TRACK-TBI, 3.23 [95% CI, 1.59-6.58]; CENTER-TBI, 1.68 [95% CI, 1.13-2.49]) out to 12 months after injury, but epidural hematoma was not. Intraventricular and/or petechial hemorrhage was associated with greater degrees of unfavorable outcomes up to 12 months after injury (eg, OR for GOSE scores <5 at 1 year in TRACK-TBI: 3.47 [95% CI, 1.66-7.26]). Some CT features were more strongly associated with outcomes than previously validated variables (eg, ORs for GOSE scores <5 at 1 year in TRACK-TBI: neuropsychiatric history, 1.43 [95% CI.98-2.10] vs contusion, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and/or subdural hematoma, 3.23 [95% CI 1.59-6.58]). Findings were externally validated in 2594 patients with mTBI enrolled in the CENTER-TBI study. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, pathological CT features carried different prognostic implications after mTBI to 1 year postinjury. Some patterns of injury were associated with worse outcomes than others. These results support that patients with mTBI and these CT features need TBI-specific education and systematic follow-up

Nutrient Processes at the Stream-Lake Interface for a Channelized Versus Unmodified Stream Mouth

Inorganic forms of nitrogen and phosphorous impact freshwater lakes by stimulating primary production and affecting water quality and ecosystem health. Communities around the world are motivated to sustain and restore freshwater resources and are interested in processes controlling nutrient inputs. We studied the environment where streams flow into lakes, referred to as the stream-lake interface (SLI), for a channelized and unmodified stream outlet. Channelization is done to protect infrastructure or recreational beach areas. We collected hydraulic and nutrient data for surface water and shallow groundwater in two SLIs to develop conceptual models that describe characteristics that are representative of these hydrologic features. Water, heat, and solute transport models were used to evaluate hydrologic conceptualizations and estimate mean residence times of water in the sediment. A nutrient mass balance model is developed to estimate net rates of adsorption and desorption, mineralization, and nitrification along subsurface flow paths. Results indicate that SLIs are dynamic sources of nutrients to lakes and that the common practice of channelizing the stream at the SLI decreases nutrient concentrations in pore water discharging along the lakeshore. This is in contrast to the unmodified SLI that forms a barrier beach that disconnects the stream from the lake and results in higher nutrient concentrations in pore water discharging to the lake. These results are significant because nutrient delivery through pore water seepage at the lakebed from the natural SLI contributes to nearshore algal communities and produces elevated concentrations of inorganic nutrients in the benthic zone where attached algae grow

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Prasugrel versus Clopidogrel for Acute Coronary Syndromes without Revascularization

peer reviewedBACKGROUND: The effect of intensified platelet inhibition for patients with unstable angina or myocardial infarction without ST-segment elevation who do not undergo revascularization has not been delineated. METHODS: In this double-blind, randomized trial, in a primary analysis involving 7243 patients under the age of 75 years receiving aspirin, we evaluated up to 30 months of treatment with prasugrel (10 mg daily) versus clopidogrel (75 mg daily). In a secondary analysis involving 2083 patients 75 years of age or older, we evaluated 5 mg of prasugrel versus 75 mg of clopidogrel. RESULTS: At a median follow-up of 17 months, the primary end point of death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, or stroke among patients under the age of 75 years occurred in 13.9% of the prasugrel group and 16.0% of the clopidogrel group (hazard ratio in the prasugre

The use of a bayesian hierarchy to develop and validate a co-morbidity score to predict mortality for linked primary and secondary care data from the NHS in England

Background: We have assessed whether the linkage between routine primary and secondary care records provided an opportunity to develop an improved population based co-morbidity score with the combined information on co-morbidities from both health care settings. Methods: We extracted all people older than 20 years at the start of 2005 within the linkage between the Hospital Episodes Statistics, Clinical Practice Research Datalink, and Office for National Statistics death register in England. A random 50% sample was used to identify relevant diagnostic codes using a Bayesian hierarchy to share information between similar Read and ICD 10 code groupings. Internal validation of the score was performed in the remaining 50% and discrimination was assessed using Harrell’s C statistic. Comparisons were made over time, age, and consultation rate with the Charlson and Elixhauser indexes. Results: 657,264 people were followed up from the 1st January 2005. 98 groupings of codes were derived from the Bayesian hierarchy, and 37 had an adjusted weighting of greater than zero in the Cox proportional hazards model. 11 of these groupings had a different weighting dependent on whether they were coded from hospital or primary care. The C statistic reduced from 0.88 (95% confidence interval 0.88–0.88) in the first year of follow up, to 0.85 (0.85–0.85) including all 5 years. When we stratified the linked score by consultation rate the association with mortality remained consistent, but there was a significant interaction with age, with improved discrimination and fit in those under 50 years old (C=0.85, 0.83–0.87) compared to the Charlson (C=0.79, 0.77–0.82) or Elixhauser index (C=0.81, 0.79–0.83). Conclusions: The use of linked population based primary and secondary care data developed a co-morbidity score that had improved discrimination, particularly in younger age groups, and had a greater effect when adjusting for co-morbidity than existing scores

Lipoprotein‐Associated Phospholipase A2 Activity Is a Marker of Risk But Not a Useful Target for Treatment in Patients With Stable Coronary Heart Disease

Background: We evaluated lipoprotein‐associated phospholipase A2 (Lp‐PLA2) activity in patients with stable coronary heart disease before and during treatment with darapladib, a selective Lp‐PLA2 inhibitor, in relation to outcomes and the effects of darapladib in the STABILITY trial. Methods and Results: Plasma Lp‐PLA2 activity was determined at baseline (n=14 500); at 1 month (n=13 709); serially (n=100) at 3, 6, and 18 months; and at the end of treatment. Adjusted Cox regression models evaluated associations between Lp‐PLA2 activity levels and outcomes. At baseline, the median Lp‐PLA2 level was 172.4 μmol/min per liter (interquartile range 143.1–204.2 μmol/min per liter). Comparing the highest and lowest Lp‐PLA2 quartile groups, the hazard ratios were 1.50 (95% CI 1.23–1.82) for the primary composite end point (cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke), 1.95 (95% CI 1.29–2.93) for hospitalization for heart failure, 1.42 (1.07–1.89) for cardiovascular death, and 1.37 (1.03–1.81) for myocardial infarction after adjustment for baseline characteristics, standard laboratory variables, and other prognostic biomarkers. Treatment with darapladib led to a ≈65% persistent reduction in median Lp‐PLA2 activity. There were no associations between on‐treatment Lp‐PLA2 activity or changes of Lp‐PLA2 activity and outcomes, and there were no significant interactions between baseline and on‐treatment Lp‐PLA2 activity or changes in Lp‐PLA2 activity levels and the effects of darapladib on outcomes. Conclusions: Although high Lp‐PLA2 activity was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events, pharmacological lowering of Lp‐PLA2 activity by ≈65% did not significantly reduce cardiovascular events in patients with stable coronary heart disease, regardless of the baseline level or the magnitude of change of Lp‐PLA2 activity