Exploring Overlaps Between the Genomic and Environmental Determinants of LVH and Stroke: A Multicenter Study in West Africa

Background Whether left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) is determined by similar genomic and environmental risk factors with stroke, or is simply an intermediate stroke marker, is unknown. Objectives We present a research plan and preliminary findings to explore the overlap in the genomic and environmental determinants of LVH and stroke among Africans participating in the SIREN (Stroke Investigative Research and Education Network) study. Methods SIREN is a transnational, multicenter study involving acute stroke patients and age-, ethnicity-, and sex-matched control subjects recruited from 9 sites in Ghana and Nigeria. Genomic and environmental risk factors and other relevant phenotypes for stroke and LVH are being collected and compared using standard techniques. Results This preliminary analysis included only 725 stroke patients (mean age 59.1 ± 13.2 years; 54.3% male). Fifty-five percent of the stroke subjects had LVH with greater proportion among women (51.6% vs. 48.4%; p \u3c 0.001). Those with LVH were younger (57.9 ± 12.8 vs. 60.6 ± 13.4; p = 0.006) and had higher mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure (167.1/99.5 mm Hg vs 151.7/90.6 mm Hg; p \u3c 0.001). Uncontrolled blood pressure at presentation was prevalent in subjects with LVH (76.2% vs. 57.7%; p \u3c 0.001). Significant independent predictors of LVH were age \u3c45 years (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 1.91; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.14 to 3.19), female sex (AOR: 2.01; 95% CI: 1.44 to 2.81), and diastolic blood pressure \u3e 90 mm Hg (AOR: 2.10; 95% CI: 1.39 to 3.19; p \u3c 0.001). Conclusions The prevalence of LVH was high among stroke patients especially the younger ones, suggesting a genetic component to LVH. Hypertension was a major modifiable risk factor for stroke as well as LVH. It is envisaged that the SIREN project will elucidate polygenic overlap (if present) between LVH and stroke among Africans, thereby defining the role of LVH as a putative intermediate cardiovascular phenotype and therapeutic target to inform interventions to reduce stroke risk in populations of African ancestry

The James Webb Space Telescope Mission

Twenty-six years ago a small committee report, building on earlier studies, expounded a compelling and poetic vision for the future of astronomy, calling for an infrared-optimized space telescope with an aperture of at least $4m$. With the support of their governments in the US, Europe, and Canada, 20,000 people realized that vision as the $6.5m$ James Webb Space Telescope. A generation of astronomers will celebrate their accomplishments for the life of the mission, potentially as long as 20 years, and beyond. This report and the scientific discoveries that follow are extended thank-you notes to the 20,000 team members. The telescope is working perfectly, with much better image quality than expected. In this and accompanying papers, we give a brief history, describe the observatory, outline its objectives and current observing program, and discuss the inventions and people who made it possible. We cite detailed reports on the design and the measured performance on orbit.Comment: Accepted by PASP for the special issue on The James Webb Space Telescope Overview, 29 pages, 4 figure

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2\ub75th percentile and 100 as the 97\ub75th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59\ub74 (IQR 35\ub74–67\ub73), ranging from a low of 11\ub76 (95% uncertainty interval 9\ub76–14\ub70) to a high of 84\ub79 (83\ub71–86\ub77). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of 'leaving no one behind', it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. METHODS: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

© 2018 The Author(s). Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specifc mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The fndings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which refects signifcant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

National cross-sectional cluster survey of tuberculosis prevalence in Timor-Leste: a study protocol

Introduction Timor-Leste has one of the world’s highest estimated tuberculosis (TB) incidences, yet the data which informs this estimate is limited and the true burden of TB disease is not known. TB prevalence surveys offer the best means of determining robust estimates of disease burden. This study aims to provide an estimate of the prevalence of bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary TB in Timor-Leste and provide additional insights into diagnostic coverage and health-seeking behaviour of persons with symptoms suggestive of TB.Methods and analysis A national population-based cross-sectional cluster survey will be conducted in which participants aged 15 years and older will be screened for pulmonary TB using an algorithm consisting of symptom screening and digital X-ray of the chest with computer-aided detection software for X-ray interpretation. Xpert Ultra and liquid culture methods will be used to confirm survey TB cases. Additional data will be collected from persons reporting symptoms suggestive of TB to assess health-seeking behaviour and access to TB diagnosis and care. The survey aims to screen a target sample population of 20 068 people, living within 50 clusters, representing every municipality of Timor-Leste. Bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary TB prevalence will be estimated using WHO-recommended methods.Ethics and dissemination Research ethics approval has been granted by the human research ethics committee of the Northern Territory, Australia, and the Instituto Nacional da Saúde, Timor-Leste. The results will be published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal and disseminated with relevant stakeholders.Trial registration number ACTRN12623000718640

Prospective characterisation of SARS-CoV-2 infections among children presenting to tertiary paediatric hospitals across Australia in 2020: a national cohort study

OBJECTIVE: To present Australia-wide data on paediatric COVID-19 and multisystem inflammatory syndromes to inform health service provision and vaccination prioritisation. DESIGN: Prospective, multicentre cohort study. SETTING: Eight tertiary paediatric hospitals across six Australian states and territories in an established research surveillance network-Paediatric Active Enhanced Disease (PAEDS). PARTICIPANTS: All children aged <19 years with SARS-CoV-2 infection including COVID-19, Paediatric Inflammatory Multisystem Syndrome Temporally Associated with SARS-CoV-2 (PIMS-TS) and Kawasaki-like disease TS infection (KD-TS) treated at a PAEDS site from 24 March 2020 to 31 December 2020. INTERVENTION: Laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. MAIN OUTCOME: Incidence of severe disease among children with COVID-19, PIMS-TS and KD-TS. We also compared KD epidemiology before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: Among 386 children with SARS-CoV-2 infection, 381 (98.7%) had COVID-19 (median 6.3 years (IQR 2.1-12.8),53.3% male) and 5 (1.3%) had multisystem inflammatory syndromes (PIMS-TS, n=4; KD-TS, n=1) (median 7.9 years (IQR 7.8-9.8)). Most children with COVID-19 (n=278; 73%) were Australian-born from jurisdictions with highest community transmission. Comorbidities were present in 72 (18.9%); cardiac and respiratory comorbidities were most common (n=32/72;44%). 37 (9.7%) children with COVID-19 were hospitalised, and two (0.5%) required intensive care. Postinfective inflammatory syndromes (PIMS-TS/KD-TS) were uncommon (n=5; 1.3%), all were hospitalised and three (3/5; 60%) required intensive care management. All children recovered and there were no deaths. KD incidence remained stable during the pandemic compared with prepandemic. CONCLUSIONS: Most children with COVID-19 had mild disease. Severe disease was less frequent than reported in high prevalence settings. Preventative strategies, such as vaccination, including children and adolescents, could reduce both the acute and postinfective manifestations of the disease

The worldwide antibiotic resistance and prescribing in european children (ARPEC) point prevalence survey: developing hospital-quality indicators of antibiotic prescribing for children

Objectives: Previously, web-based tools for cross-sectional antimicrobial point prevalence surveys (PPSs) have been used in adults to develop indicators of quality improvement. We aimed to determine the feasibility of developing similar quality indicators of improved antimicrobial prescribing focusing specifically on hospitalized neonates and children worldwide. Methods: A standardized antimicrobial PPS method was employed. Included were all inpatient children and neonates receiving an antimicrobial at 8:00 am on the day of the PPS. Denominators included the total number of inpatients. A web-based application was used for data entry, validation and reporting. We analysed 2012 data from 226 hospitals (H) in 41 countries (C) from Europe (174H; 24C), Africa (6H; 4C), Asia (25H; 8C), Australia (6H), Latin America (11H; 3C) and North America (4H). Results: Of 17 693 admissions, 6499 (36.7%) inpatients received at least one antimicrobial, but this varied considerably between wards and regions. Potential indicators included very high broad-spectrum antibiotic prescribing in children of mainly ceftriaxone (ranked first in Eastern Europe, 31.3%; Asia, 13.0%; Southern Europe, 9.8%), cefepime (ranked third in North America, 7.8%) and meropenem (ranked first in Latin America, 13.1%). The survey identified worryingly high use of critically important antibiotics for hospital-acquired infections in neonates (34.9%; range from 14.2% in Africa to 68.0% in Latin America) compared with children (28.3%; range from 14.5% in Africa to 48.9% in Latin America). Parenteral administration was very common among children in Asia (88%), Latin America (81%) and Europe (67%). Documentation of the reasons for antibiotic prescribing was lowest in Latin America (52%). Prolonged surgical prophylaxis rates ranged from 78% (Europe) to 84% (Latin America). Conclusions: Simple web-based PPS tools provide a feasible method to identify areas for improvement of antibiotic use, to set benchmarks and to monitor future interventions in hospitalized neonates and children. To our knowledge, this study has derived the first global quality indicators for antibiotic use in hospitalized neonates and children