Conceptual framework for scenarios development in the Water futures and Solutions project

The major purpose of the Water Futures & Solutions (WFaS) initiative is to develop a set of adaptable resilient and robust solutions and a framework to facilitate access to and guidance through them by decision makers facing a variety of water-related challenges to sustainable evelopment, and a set of optional pathways to achieve plausible sustainable development goals by 2050. The WFaS Initiative addresses the multidimensional aspects of the water system and is guided by stakeholders representing these various aspects. The Initiative views freshwater systems as being strongly interweaved with human activities (Economy, Society) and Nature as a whole. Dynamics and health of freshwater systems is critical to human well- being. The Initiative will go beyond scenario production and model comparisons and will focus on exploring solutions and necessary innovations to address the growing water challenges. Solutions can be combinations of technological innovations, regulatory approaches, manageent or institutional changes that improve the balance of water supply and demand, improve water quality, or reduce water-related risks for society. Solutions will often be embedded in and cut across all sectors of social and economic activities. In order to represent the aspirations and interdependencies as described above, the conceptual framework has been developed, to communicate project results to the target audiences. This document describes this conceptual framework that will be used: -to support development of qualitative water scenarios -to identify and select critical dimensions of the water scenarios -to guide integration of scenarios with quantitative models -to guide integration of information from various data sources into the scenarios -to support development and assessment of solutions -to support collaboration between project and stakeholder groups -to facilitate presentation of results to target audiences The WFaS conceptual framework is developed using the 'concept maps' technique (Caqas and Carff, 2005; Novak and Caqas, 2006b). Concept maps method was develop to represent knowledge in an organized way. It allows practitioners to represent concepts and specific relationships between concepts. It is flexible enough to adapt to different knowledge domains to support better understanding and communication between individuals and groups from different backgrounds

Towards Innovative Solutions through Integrative Futures Analysis - Preliminary qualitative scenarios

This report presents preliminary results of developing qualitative global water scenarios. The water scenarios are developed to be consistent with the underlying Shared Socio- Economic Pathways (SSPs). In this way different stakeholders in different contexts (climate, water) can be presented with consistent set of scenarios avoiding confusion and increasing policy impact. Water scenarios are based on the conceptual framework that has been developd specifically for this effort. The framework provides clear representation of important dimensions in the areas of Nature, Economy and Society and Water dimensions that are embedded in them. These critical dimensions are used to describe future changes in a consistent way for all scenarios. Three scenarios are presented based on SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3 respectively. Hydro-economic classes are introduced to further differentiate within scenarios based on economic and water conditions for specific regions and/or countries. In the process of building these preliminary water scenarios assumptions that are presented in this report, the number of challenges have been met. In the conclusions section these challenges are summarized and possible ways of tackling them are described

Multisectoral Climate Impact Hotspots in a Warming World

The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity's diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 degC above the 1980-2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 degC. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty

To which world regions does the valence–dominance model of social perception apply?

Over the past 10 years, Oosterhof and Todorov’s valence–dominance model has emerged as the most prominent account of how people evaluate faces on social dimensions. In this model, two dimensions (valence and dominance) underpin social judgements of faces. Because this model has primarily been developed and tested in Western regions, it is unclear whether these findings apply to other regions. We addressed this question by replicating Oosterhof and Todorov’s methodology across 11 world regions, 41 countries and 11,570 participants. When we used Oosterhof and Todorov’s original analysis strategy, the valence–dominance model generalized across regions. When we used an alternative methodology to allow for correlated dimensions, we observed much less generalization. Collectively, these results suggest that, while the valence–dominance model generalizes very well across regions when dimensions are forced to be orthogonal, regional differences are revealed when we use different extraction methods and correlate and rotate the dimension reduction solution.C.L. was supported by the Vienna Science and Technology Fund (WWTF VRG13-007); L.M.D. was supported by ERC 647910 (KINSHIP); D.I.B. and N.I. received funding from CONICET, Argentina; L.K., F.K. and Á. Putz were supported by the European Social Fund (EFOP-3.6.1.-16-2016-00004; ‘Comprehensive Development for Implementing Smart Specialization Strategies at the University of Pécs’). K.U. and E. Vergauwe were supported by a grant from the Swiss National Science Foundation (PZ00P1_154911 to E. Vergauwe). T.G. is supported by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC). M.A.V. was supported by grants 2016-T1/SOC-1395 (Comunidad de Madrid) and PSI2017-85159-P (AEI/FEDER UE). K.B. was supported by a grant from the National Science Centre, Poland (number 2015/19/D/HS6/00641). J. Bonick and J.W.L. were supported by the Joep Lange Institute. G.B. was supported by the Slovak Research and Development Agency (APVV-17-0418). H.I.J. and E.S. were supported by a French National Research Agency ‘Investissements d’Avenir’ programme grant (ANR-15-IDEX-02). T.D.G. was supported by an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship. The Raipur Group is thankful to: (1) the University Grants Commission, New Delhi, India for the research grants received through its SAP-DRS (Phase-III) scheme sanctioned to the School of Studies in Life Science; and (2) the Center for Translational Chronobiology at the School of Studies in Life Science, PRSU, Raipur, India for providing logistical support. K. Ask was supported by a small grant from the Department of Psychology, University of Gothenburg. Y.Q. was supported by grants from the Beijing Natural Science Foundation (5184035) and CAS Key Laboratory of Behavioral Science, Institute of Psychology. N.A.C. was supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship (R010138018). We acknowledge the following research assistants: J. Muriithi and J. Ngugi (United States International University Africa); E. Adamo, D. Cafaro, V. Ciambrone, F. Dolce and E. Tolomeo (Magna Græcia University of Catanzaro); E. De Stefano (University of Padova); S. A. Escobar Abadia (University of Lincoln); L. E. Grimstad (Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)); L. C. Zamora (Franklin and Marshall College); R. E. Liang and R. C. Lo (Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman); A. Short and L. Allen (Massey University, New Zealand), A. Ateş, E. Güneş and S. Can Özdemir (Boğaziçi University); I. Pedersen and T. Roos (Åbo Akademi University); N. Paetz (Escuela de Comunicación Mónica Herrera); J. Green (University of Gothenburg); M. Krainz (University of Vienna, Austria); and B. Todorova (University of Vienna, Austria). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript.https://www.nature.com/nathumbehav/am2023BiochemistryGeneticsMicrobiology and Plant Patholog

A multi-country test of brief reappraisal interventions on emotions during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has increased negative emotions and decreased positive emotions globally. Left unchecked, these emotional changes might have a wide array of adverse impacts. To reduce negative emotions and increase positive emotions, we tested the effectiveness of reappraisal, an emotion-regulation strategy that modifies how one thinks about a situation. Participants from 87 countries and regions (n = 21,644) were randomly assigned to one of two brief reappraisal interventions (reconstrual or repurposing) or one of two control conditions (active or passive). Results revealed that both reappraisal interventions (vesus both control conditions) consistently reduced negative emotions and increased positive emotions across different measures. Reconstrual and repurposing interventions had similar effects. Importantly, planned exploratory analyses indicated that reappraisal interventions did not reduce intentions to practice preventive health behaviours. The findings demonstrate the viability of creating scalable, low-cost interventions for use around the world

European participatory scenario development: Strengthening the link between stories and models

Scenario development methods get to grips with taking a long-term view on complex issues such as climate change through involvement of stakeholders. Many of the recent (global) scenario exercises have been structured according to a Story-and-Simulating approach. Although elaborately studied, conceptual and practical issues remain in linking qualitative stories and quantitative models. In this paper, we show how stakeholders can directly estimate model parameter values using a three-step approach called Fuzzy Set Theory. We focus on the effect of multiple iterations between stories and models. Results show that we were successful in quickly delivering stakeholder-based quantification of key model parameters, with full consistency between linguistic terms used in stories and numeric values. Yet, values changed strongly from one iteration to the next. A minimum of two and preferably at least three iterations is needed to harmonise stories and models. We conclude that the application of Fuzzy Set Theory enabled a highly valuable, structured and reproducible process to increase consistency between stories and models, but that future work is needed to show its true potential, particularly related to the effect of iterations. Additionally, the number of tools that need to be applied in a short period of time to execute a Story-And-Simulation approach introduces drawbacks that need to be studied. However, an approach such as Story-And-Simulation is indispensable and effective in marrying the perspectives of scientists and other stakeholders when studying complex systems and complex problems

Bestimmung effektiver hydraulischer Parameter in heterogenen poroesen Medien

Available from TIB Hannover / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman

Development of future water use scenarios: Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative’s approaches

Long-term and efficient strategies for water security have become increasingly important to achieve sustainable development. In order to explore practical development goals and pathways, a scenario-base approach provides valuable insights, since it can identify our challenges. However, still only few water resource assessments have considered “Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)”. It is expected that water demand will increase in conjunction with population and economic growth. On the other hand, economic and technological progress have potential to improve water use efficiency leading to a reduction in water use. Water Future and Solutions (WFaS) aims to establish a comprehensive water assessment framework which covers agricultural-industrial-domestic sectors. The purpose of this study is to develop and analyze a set of consistent global water scenarios, especially about agricultural sector. As a fast track, WFaS chose three sets of SSPs and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs), then developed global water narratives. For agriculture sector, future trajectories of two key drivers were assumed; crop and irrigation area, and irrigation efficiency (IE) (Yearly, 2010-2099). It is expected that crop area and the area equipped for irrigation will expand over time. Irrigation area change reflects structural socioeconomic change such as food demand and land use. The Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZ) system provided a series of projection of spatial distribution of crop and irrigation area. GAEZ encompasses climate scenarios, demographic and socio-economic drivers, and production, consumption and world food trade dynamics. WFaS provides dynamical scenarios of IE with a hypothesis that IE improves along with socio-economic growth, considering possible combinations of five crop types and three irrigation systems; gravity, sprinkler and drip irrigation. Each system has specific range of IE. The projection of IE was aggregated at country level to meet specification of existing global hydrological models. The country level IE will improves when an existing irrigation system is replaced with an innovated same irrigation system or another higher efficiency system, or an irrigation area expands with a higher efficiency system. Thus this study formulates the improvement of IE as a function of country/scenario-specific or system-specific parameters of replacement speed and a function of irrigation area. To define country/scenario-specific parameters, a country classification which is based on its socioeconomic condition and hydrological condition was applied. For instance, a country who has less water resource and higher financial power shows more rapid improvement of IE. Forced the three scenarios, three global water models (H08, PCR-GLOBWB, WaterGAP) projected and estimated future water supply and demand. As results of the projection, two water resource assessments which covers agricultural, industrial and domestic sectors will be presented. The first assessment is about imbalances between supply and demand, then hot spots of water scarcity is highlighted. For example in Asia, potential population under severe water scarcity will increase throughout all scenarios considered, in the range of 1.7 to 2.1 billion, which represents approximately 40% of Asia’s total population in the 2050s. The second assessment is a country classification from the view point of their cooping capacity and hydrological challenge. Our result suggests that Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Azerbaijan will remain the most vulnerable countries in Asia because they will be highly water stressed with low adaptive capacity under all scenarios. The number of people living in these three countries will total between 323 and 450 million people in the 2050s