Deterministic Factors Overwhelm Stochastic Environmental Fluctuations as Drivers of Jellyfish Outbreaks

16 pages, 4 figures, 1 table, supporting Information http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0141060Jellyfish outbreaks are increasingly viewed as a deterministic response to escalating levels of environmental degradation and climate extremes. However, a comprehensive understanding of the influence of deterministic drivers and stochastic environmental variations favouring population renewal processes has remained elusive. This study quantifies the deterministic and stochastic components of environmental change that lead to outbreaks of the jellyfish Pelagia noctiluca in the Mediterranen Sea. Using data of jellyfish abundance collected at 241 sites along the Catalan coast from 2007 to 2010 we: (1) tested hypotheses about the influence of time-varying and spatial predictors of jellyfish outbreaks; (2) evaluated the relative importance of stochastic vs. deterministic forcing of outbreaks through the environmental bootstrap method; and (3) quantified return times of extreme events. Outbreaks were common in May and June and less likely in other summer months, which resulted in a negative relationship between outbreaks and SST. Cross- and along-shore advection by geostrophic flow were important concentrating forces of jellyfish, but most outbreaks occurred in the proximity of two canyons in the northern part of the study area. This result supported the recent hypothesis that canyons can funnel P. noctiluca blooms towards shore during upwelling. This can be a general, yet unappreciated mechanism leading to outbreaks of holoplanktonic jellyfish species. The environmental bootstrap indicated that stochastic environmental fluctuations have negligible effects on return times of outbreaks. Our analysis emphasized the importance of deterministic processes leading to jellyfish outbreaks compared to the stochastic component of environmental variation. A better understanding of how environmental drivers affect demographic and population processes in jellyfish species will increase the ability to anticipate jellyfish outbreaks in the futureThe authors gratefully acknowledge financial support by the European Community Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) for the project VECTORS (grant agreement no. 266445) (URL: http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/home_en.html). AC was supported by a doctoral fellowship from the Chilean National Commission for Scientific and Technological Research (CONICYT – PFCHA/Doctorado al Extranjero 4a Convocatoria, 72120016).Peer Reviewe

Experimental accelerated shelf life determination of a ready-to-eat processed food

The most direct way to estimate the shelf life of a product is to conduct simulation tests which are time consuming and expensive. Conversely, accelerated shelf life tests can be successfully used for stable products having long expected shelf life. The aim of the study was directed to verify the possibility to apply an accelerated shelf life test to perishable food products having a short-expected shelf life, such as a new ready-to-eat processed food preparation, composed mainly by cereals, tuna and chicken, packed in thermo-sealed trays and pasteurised. Different samples of the product were stored in thermal abuse conditions, collected periodically and subjected to determinations of TVB-N, pH and sensorial characteristics. Q10 and activation energy were calculated allowing to obtain a predictive evaluation of the product shelf life at the 4°C recommended temperature. The product shelf life was assessed at 26 days vs the 30 days expected by the manufacturer, showing the possibility to apply successfully ASLT for products having short shelf life, saving both time and money

A New Genetic Risk Score to Predict the Outcome of Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer Patients Treated With First-Line Exemestane: Results From a Prospective Study

Currently there are no reliable biomarkers to predict outcome of exemestane treatment. We designed a prospective study to investigate whether constitutive genetic background might affect response to therapy. In a population of 302 advanced breast cancer patients treated with exemestane we showed that a 5-polymorphism-based genetic score could be used to identify patients with different risks of progression and death.Introduction: Approximately 50% of locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer (MBC) patients treated with first-line exemestane do not show objective response and currently there are no reliable biomarkers to predict the outcome of patients using this therapy. The constitutive genetic background might be responsible for differences in the outcome of exemestane-treated patients. We designed a prospective study to investigate the role of germ line polymorphisms as biomarkers of survival. Patients and Methods: Three hundred two locally advanced or MBC patients treated with first-line exemestane were genotyped for 74 germ line polymorphisms in 39 candidate genes involved in drug activity, hormone balance, DNA replication and repair, and cell signaling pathways. Associations with progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were tested with multivariate Cox regression. Bootstrap resampling was used as an internal assessment of results reproducibility. Results: Cytochrome P450 19A1-rs10046TC/CC, solute carrier organic anion transporter 1B1-rs4149056TT, adenosine triphosphate binding cassette subfamily G member 2-rs2046134GG, fibroblast growth factor receptor-4-rs351855TT, and X-ray repair cross complementing 3-rs861539TT were significantly associated with PFS and then combined into a risk score (0-1, 2, 3, or 4-6 risk points). Patients with the highest risk score (4-6 risk points) compared with ones with the lowest score (0-1 risk points) had a median PFS of 10 months versus 26.3 months (adjusted hazard ratio [AdjHR], 3.12 [95% confidence interval (CI), 2.18-4.48]; P < .001) and a median OS of 38.9 months versus 63.0 months (AdjHR, 2.41 [95% CI, 1.22-4.79], P = .012), respectively. Conclusion: In this study we defined a score including 5 polymorphisms to stratify patients for PFS and OS. This score, if validated, might be translated to personalize locally advanced or MBC patient treatment and management

An integrated approach to coastal and biological observations

Funding: Danish Meteorological Institute.Maritime economy, ecosystem-based management and climate change adaptation and mitigation raise emerging needs on coastal ocean and biological observations. Integrated ocean observing aims at optimizing sampling strategies and cost-efficiency, sharing data and best practices and maximizing the value of the observations for multiple purposes. Recently developed cost-effective, near real time technology such as gliders, radars, ferrybox and shallow water Argo floats, should be used operationally to generate operational coastal sea observations and analysis. Furthermore, value of disparate coastal ocean observations can be unlocked with multi-dimensional integration on fitness-for-the-purpose, parameter and instrumental. Integration of operational monitoring with offline monitoring programs, such as those for research, ecosystem-based management and commercial purposes, is necessary to fill the gaps. Such integration should lead to a system of networks which can deliver data for all kinds of purposes. Detailed integration activities are identified which should enhance the coastal ocean and biological observing capacity. Ultimately a program is required which integrates physical, biogeochemical and biological observation of the ocean, from coastal to deep-sea environments, bringing together global, regional and local observation efforts.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Differential cross section measurements for the production of a W boson in association with jets in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV

Measurements are reported of differential cross sections for the production of a W boson, which decays into a muon and a neutrino, in association with jets, as a function of several variables, including the transverse momenta (pT) and pseudorapidities of the four leading jets, the scalar sum of jet transverse momenta (HT), and the difference in azimuthal angle between the directions of each jet and the muon. The data sample of pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV was collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb[superscript −1]. The measured cross sections are compared to predictions from Monte Carlo generators, MadGraph + pythia and sherpa, and to next-to-leading-order calculations from BlackHat + sherpa. The differential cross sections are found to be in agreement with the predictions, apart from the pT distributions of the leading jets at high pT values, the distributions of the HT at high-HT and low jet multiplicity, and the distribution of the difference in azimuthal angle between the leading jet and the muon at low values.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio

Penilaian Kinerja Keuangan Koperasi di Kabupaten Pelalawan

This paper describe development and financial performance of cooperative in District Pelalawan among 2007 - 2008. Studies on primary and secondary cooperative in 12 sub-districts. Method in this stady use performance measuring of productivity, efficiency, growth, liquidity, and solvability of cooperative. Productivity of cooperative in Pelalawan was highly but efficiency still low. Profit and income were highly, even liquidity of cooperative very high, and solvability was good

Juxtaposing BTE and ATE – on the role of the European insurance industry in funding civil litigation

One of the ways in which legal services are financed, and indeed shaped, is through private insurance arrangement. Two contrasting types of legal expenses insurance contracts (LEI) seem to dominate in Europe: before the event (BTE) and after the event (ATE) legal expenses insurance. Notwithstanding institutional differences between different legal systems, BTE and ATE insurance arrangements may be instrumental if government policy is geared towards strengthening a market-oriented system of financing access to justice for individuals and business. At the same time, emphasizing the role of a private industry as a keeper of the gates to justice raises issues of accountability and transparency, not readily reconcilable with demands of competition. Moreover, multiple actors (clients, lawyers, courts, insurers) are involved, causing behavioural dynamics which are not easily predicted or influenced. Against this background, this paper looks into BTE and ATE arrangements by analysing the particularities of BTE and ATE arrangements currently available in some European jurisdictions and by painting a picture of their respective markets and legal contexts. This allows for some reflection on the performance of BTE and ATE providers as both financiers and keepers. Two issues emerge from the analysis that are worthy of some further reflection. Firstly, there is the problematic long-term sustainability of some ATE products. Secondly, the challenges faced by policymakers that would like to nudge consumers into voluntarily taking out BTE LEI

Search for stop and higgsino production using diphoton Higgs boson decays

Results are presented of a search for a "natural" supersymmetry scenario with gauge mediated symmetry breaking. It is assumed that only the supersymmetric partners of the top-quark (stop) and the Higgs boson (higgsino) are accessible. Events are examined in which there are two photons forming a Higgs boson candidate, and at least two b-quark jets. In 19.7 inverse femtobarns of proton-proton collision data at sqrt(s) = 8 TeV, recorded in the CMS experiment, no evidence of a signal is found and lower limits at the 95% confidence level are set, excluding the stop mass below 360 to 410 GeV, depending on the higgsino mass

Severe early onset preeclampsia: short and long term clinical, psychosocial and biochemical aspects

Preeclampsia is a pregnancy specific disorder commonly defined as de novo hypertension and proteinuria after 20 weeks gestational age. It occurs in approximately 3-5% of pregnancies and it is still a major cause of both foetal and maternal morbidity and mortality worldwide1. As extensive research has not yet elucidated the aetiology of preeclampsia, there are no rational preventive or therapeutic interventions available. The only rational treatment is delivery, which benefits the mother but is not in the interest of the foetus, if remote from term. Early onset preeclampsia (<32 weeks’ gestational age) occurs in less than 1% of pregnancies. It is, however often associated with maternal morbidity as the risk of progression to severe maternal disease is inversely related with gestational age at onset2. Resulting prematurity is therefore the main cause of neonatal mortality and morbidity in patients with severe preeclampsia3. Although the discussion is ongoing, perinatal survival is suggested to be increased in patients with preterm preeclampsia by expectant, non-interventional management. This temporising treatment option to lengthen pregnancy includes the use of antihypertensive medication to control hypertension, magnesium sulphate to prevent eclampsia and corticosteroids to enhance foetal lung maturity4. With optimal maternal haemodynamic status and reassuring foetal condition this results on average in an extension of 2 weeks. Prolongation of these pregnancies is a great challenge for clinicians to balance between potential maternal risks on one the eve hand and possible foetal benefits on the other. Clinical controversies regarding prolongation of preterm preeclamptic pregnancies still exist – also taking into account that preeclampsia is the leading cause of maternal mortality in the Netherlands5 - a debate which is even more pronounced in very preterm pregnancies with questionable foetal viability6-9. Do maternal risks of prolongation of these very early pregnancies outweigh the chances of neonatal survival? Counselling of women with very early onset preeclampsia not only comprises of knowledge of the outcome of those particular pregnancies, but also knowledge of outcomes of future pregnancies of these women is of major clinical importance. This thesis opens with a review of the literature on identifiable risk factors of preeclampsia

Impacts of the Tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans on the Seasonal Cycle of the West African Monsoon

The current consensus is that drought has developed in the Sahel during the second half of the twentieth century as a result of remote effects of oceanic anomalies amplified by local land–atmosphere interactions. This paper focuses on the impacts of oceanic anomalies upon West African climate and specifically aims to identify those from SST anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Oceans during spring and summer seasons, when they were significant. Idealized sensitivity experiments are performed with four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The prescribed SST patterns used in the AGCMs are based on the leading mode of covariability between SST anomalies over the Pacific/Indian Oceans and summer rainfall over West Africa. The results show that such oceanic anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Ocean lead to a northward shift of an anomalous dry belt from the Gulf of Guinea to the Sahel as the season advances. In the Sahel, the magnitude of rainfall anomalies is comparable to that obtained by other authors using SST anomalies confined to the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean. The mechanism connecting the Pacific/Indian SST anomalies with West African rainfall has a strong seasonal cycle. In spring (May and June), anomalous subsidence develops over both the Maritime Continent and the equatorial Atlantic in response to the enhanced equatorial heating. Precipitation increases over continental West Africa in association with stronger zonal convergence of moisture. In addition, precipitation decreases over the Gulf of Guinea. During the monsoon peak (July and August), the SST anomalies move westward over the equatorial Pacific and the two regions where subsidence occurred earlier in the seasons merge over West Africa. The monsoon weakens and rainfall decreases over the Sahel, especially in August.Peer reviewe