Dynamics on expanding spaces: modeling the emergence of novelties

Novelties are part of our daily lives. We constantly adopt new technologies, conceive new ideas, meet new people, experiment with new situations. Occasionally, we as individuals, in a complicated cognitive and sometimes fortuitous process, come up with something that is not only new to us, but to our entire society so that what is a personal novelty can turn into an innovation at a global level. Innovations occur throughout social, biological and technological systems and, though we perceive them as a very natural ingredient of our human experience, little is known about the processes determining their emergence. Still the statistical occurrence of innovations shows striking regularities that represent a starting point to get a deeper insight in the whole phenomenology. This paper represents a small step in that direction, focusing on reviewing the scientific attempts to effectively model the emergence of the new and its regularities, with an emphasis on more recent contributions: from the plain Simon's model tracing back to the 1950s, to the newest model of Polya's urn with triggering of one novelty by another. What seems to be key in the successful modelling schemes proposed so far is the idea of looking at evolution as a path in a complex space, physical, conceptual, biological, technological, whose structure and topology get continuously reshaped and expanded by the occurrence of the new. Mathematically it is very interesting to look at the consequences of the interplay between the "actual" and the "possible" and this is the aim of this short review.Comment: 25 pages, 10 figure

Patterns and Rhythms: Facilitating young children’s engagement at Tate Liverpool. l.

This paper sets out to demonstrate the creative engagement of a group of three and four year old children at Tate Liverpool Art Gallery and how this was facilitated. The paper starts by providing background on the project at Tate Liverpool and to a pedagogy of engagement. In doing so its value of creative engagement within the context of gallery education and the perceived barriers that can sometimes prevent or restrict young children’s engagement are acknowledged. It progresses to show how artworks were used as provocations for encouraging children’s creative engagement as part of workshops in the gallery space and the creative engagement signs that were observed. Vignettes of children’s spontaneous responses are used to illustrate and analyse their engagement, and how this was facilitated by artists. Most significantly, the paper presents ‘visible rhythms’ as a new phenomenon or ‘signs’ of creative engagement. Through a facilitation of curiosity and self-discovery over sustained periods of time, as part of an environment where power is shared, children’s engagement was observed as they expressed themselves through their ‘visible rhythms’

The effect of distance on reaction time in aiming movements

Target distance affects movement duration in aiming tasks but its effect on reaction time (RT) is poorly documented. RT is a function of both preparation and initiation. Experiment 1 pre-cued movement (allowing advanced preparation) and found no influence of distance on RT. Thus, target distance does not affect initiation time. Experiment 2 removed pre-cue information and found that preparing a movement of increased distance lengthens RT. Experiment 3 explored movements to targets of cued size at non-cued distances and found size altered peak speed and movement duration but RT was influenced by distance alone. Thus, amplitude influences preparation time (for reasons other than altered duration) but not initiation time. We hypothesise that the RT distance effect might be due to the increased number of possible trajectories associated with further targets: a hypothesis that can be tested in future experiments

Cost-effectiveness of a novel lipoarabinomannan test for tuberculosis in patients with HIV

BACKGROUND: A novel urine lipoarabinomannan assay (FujiLAM) has higher sensitivity and higher cost than the first-generation AlereLAM assay. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of FujiLAM for tuberculosis testing among hospitalized people with HIV irrespective of symptoms. METHODS: We used a microsimulation model to project clinical and economic outcomes of three testing strategies: 1) sputum Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert); 2) sputum Xpert plus urine AlereLAM (Xpert+AlereLAM); 3) sputum Xpert plus urine FujiLAM (Xpert+FujiLAM). The modelled cohort matched that of a two-country clinical trial. We applied diagnostic yields from a retrospective study (yields for Xpert/Xpert+AlereLAM/Xpert+FujiLAM among those with CD4<200/µL: 33%/62%/70%; among those with CD4≥200/µL: 33%/35%/47%). Costs of Xpert/AlereLAM/FujiLAM were USD15/3/6 (South Africa) and USD25/3/6 (Malawi). Xpert+FujiLAM was considered cost-effective if its incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (USD/year-of-life saved) was <$940 (South Africa) and <$750 (Malawi). We varied key parameters in sensitivity analysis and performed a budget impact analysis of implementing FujiLAM countrywide. RESULTS: Compared with Xpert+AlereLAM, Xpert+FujiLAM increased life expectancy by 0.2 years for those tested in South Africa and Malawi. Xpert+FujiLAM was cost-effective in both countries. Xpert+FujiLAM for all patients remained cost-effective compared with sequential testing and CD4-stratified testing strategies. FujiLAM use added 3.5% (South Africa) and 4.7% (Malawi) to five-year healthcare costs of tested patients, primarily reflecting ongoing HIV treatment costs among survivors. CONCLUSIONS: FujiLAM with Xpert for tuberculosis testing in hospitalized people with HIV is likely to increase life expectancy and be cost-effective at the currently anticipated price in South Africa and Malawi. Additional studies should evaluate FujiLAM in clinical practice settings

Coronary artery bypass grafting and sensorineural hearing loss, a cohort study

BACKGROUND: Sudden sensorineural hearing loss is routinely encountered by the otologist. The etiology is varied and often identifiable. One of the relatively less frequent causes is surgery. Apart from being an established entity with otological surgeries, sensorineural hearing loss has also been known to occur after non-otological procedures under general anesthesia. Commonest amongst these procedures is cardiopulmonary bypass, an association that has long been recognized. However, despite the proposition of diverse hypotheses in the past, the pathophysiology remains unclear. METHODS: The study is a prospective matched cohort study that will be carried out in Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, Pakistan. Participants among exposed would include all those patients who would be undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery in the hospital who fall under the criteria for inclusion. Unexposed group would comprise of patients undergoing a non-bypass procedure of similar duration under the same type of anesthesia who meet the selection criteria. Both these groups will undergo audiometric testing at our hospital on three different occasions during the course of this study. Initially before the procedure to test the baseline hearing capacity; then one week after the procedure to assess any changes in hearing ability following the surgery; and finally a third audiogram at six weeks follow-up to assess further changes in any hearing deficits noted during the second phase of testing. Certain variables including the subjects' demographics and those concerning the procedure itself will be noted and used later for risk factors analysis. A detailed past medical and surgical history will also be obtained. Data analysis would include calculation of relative risk and significance of the results, by running the chi-square test. Other statistical tests like Fisher exact test may then be employed to facilitate data interpretation. Continuous scale may then be employed and multivariate linear regression used. DISCUSSION: This study is planned to obtain a better understanding of the correlation between sudden sensorineural hearing loss and cardiopulmonary bypass. Being the first major cohort trial in this line of investigation, the project is designed to identify the existence of any significant relationship between cardiopulmonary bypass and sensorineural hearing deficit

A mixed methods approach to evaluating community drug distributor performance in the control of neglected tropical diseases

BACKGROUND: Trusted literate, or semi-literate, community drug distributors (CDDs) are the primary implementers in integrated preventive chemotherapy (IPC) programmes for Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) control. The CDDs are responsible for safely distributing drugs and for galvanising communities to repeatedly, often over many years, receive annual treatment, create and update treatment registers, monitor for side-effects and compile treatment coverage reports. These individuals are 'volunteers' for the programmes and do not receive remuneration for their annual work commitment. METHODS: A mixed methods approach, which included pictorial diaries to prospectively record CDD use of time, structured interviews and focus group discussions, was used to triangulate data on how 58 CDDs allocated their time towards their routine family activities and to NTD Programme activities in Uganda. The opportunity costs of CDD time were valued, performance assessed by determining the relationship between time and programme coverage, and CDD motivation for participating in the programme was explored. RESULTS: Key findings showed approximately 2.5 working weeks (range 0.6-11.4 working weeks) were spent on NTD Programme activities per year. The amount of time on NTD control activities significantly increased between the one and three deliveries that were required within an IPC campaign. CDD time spent on NTD Programme activities significantly reduced time available for subsistence and income generating engagements. As CDDs took more time to complete NTD Programme activities, their treatment performance, in terms of validated coverage, significantly decreased. Motivation for the programme was reported as low and CDDs felt undervalued. CONCLUSIONS: CDDs contribute a considerable amount of opportunity cost to the overall economic cost of the NTD Programme in Uganda due to the commitment of their time. Nevertheless, programme coverage of at least 75 %, as required by the World Health Organisation, is not being achieved and vulnerable individuals may not have access to treatment as a consequence of sub-optimal performance by the CDDs due to workload and programmatic factors

Chemical pavement modifications to reduce ice adhesion

The formation of ice and snow on road pavement surfaces is a recurring problem, creating hazardous driving conditions, restricting public mobility as well as having adverse economic effects. It would be desirable to develop new and improved ways of modifying the pavement surface, to prevent or at least delay the build-up of ice and to weaken the pavement–ice bond, and making the ice which forms easier to remove. This development could lead to economic, environmental and safety benefits for winter service providers and road users. This paper describes how environmental scanning electron microscopy was used to examine the mechanism by which de-icing chemicals, added as a filler replacement to bituminous materials, can be transferred to the pavement surface. The paper assesses the potential for chemical modifications to reduce the adhesion between ice and the pavement surface by means of work of adhesion calculations, based on surface energy parameters and a new physical ice bond test. The paper also examines the influence that the chemical modifications have on the durability of the pavement surface course

Animal-related factors associated with moderate-to-severe diarrhea in children younger than five years in western Kenya: A matched case-control study

Background Diarrheal disease remains among the leading causes of global mortality in children younger than 5 years. Exposure to domestic animals may be a risk factor for diarrheal disease. The objectives of this study were to identify animal-related exposures associated with cases of moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in children in rural western Kenya, and to identify the major zoonotic enteric pathogens present in domestic animals residing in the homesteads of case and control children. Methodology/Principal findings We characterized animal-related exposures in a subset of case and control children (n = 73 pairs matched on age, sex and location) with reported animal presence at home enrolled in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study in western Kenya, and analysed these for an association with MSD. We identified potentially zoonotic enteric pathogens in pooled fecal specimens collected from domestic animals resident at children’s homesteads. Variables that were associated with decreased risk of MSD were washing hands after animal contact (matched odds ratio [MOR] = 0.2; 95% CI 0.08–0.7), and presence of adult sheep that were not confined in a pen overnight (MOR = 0.1; 0.02–0.5). Variables that were associated with increased risk of MSD were increasing number of sheep owned (MOR = 1.2; 1.0–1.5), frequent observation of fresh rodent excreta (feces/urine) outside the house (MOR = 7.5; 1.5–37.2), and participation of the child in providing water to chickens (MOR = 3.8; 1.2–12.2). Of 691 pooled specimens collected from 2,174 domestic animals, 159 pools (23%) tested positive for one or more potentially zoonotic enteric pathogens (Campylobacter jejuni, C. coli, non-typhoidal Salmonella, diarrheagenic E. coli, Giardia, Cryptosporidium, or rotavirus). We did not find any association between the presence of particular pathogens in household animals, and MSD in children. Conclusions and significance Public health agencies should continue to promote frequent hand washing, including after animal contact, to reduce the risk of MSD. Future studies should address specific causal relations of MSD with sheep and chicken husbandry practices, and with the presence of rodents

Tracing ancestry with methylation patterns: most crypts appear distantly related in normal adult human colon

BACKGROUND: The ability to discern ancestral relationships between individual human colon crypts is limited. Widely separated crypts likely trace their common ancestors to a time around birth, but closely spaced adult crypts may share more recent common ancestors if they frequently divide by fission to form clonal patches. Alternatively, adult crypts may be long-lived structures that infrequently divide or die. METHODS: Methylation patterns (the 5' to 3' order of methylation) at CpG sites that exhibit random changes with aging were measured from isolated crypts by bisulfite genomic sequencing. This epigenetic drift may be used to infer ancestry because recently related crypts should have similar methylation patterns. RESULTS: Methylation patterns were different between widely separated ("unrelated") crypts greater than 15 cm apart. Evidence for a more recent relationship between directly adjacent or branched crypts could not be found because their methylation pattern distances were not significantly different than widely separated crypt pairs. Methylation patterns are essentially equally different between two adult human crypts regardless of their relative locations. CONCLUSIONS: Methylation patterns appear to record somatic cell trees. Starting from a single cell at conception, sequences replicate and may drift apart. Most adult human colon crypts appear to be long-lived structures that become mosaic with respect to methylation during aging